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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

By: Adam Lawrence
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The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your hosts: Adam Lawrence and Jay Howard. Expert Resident Guests: - Helen Chorley - Piotr Rusinek2022 Economics Leadership Management & Leadership Personal Finance
Episodes
  • The £76k new-build tax, EPC illusions and why Britain has stopped building

    The £76k new-build tax, EPC illusions and why Britain has stopped building
    May 13 2026

    Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided?

    ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven***

    In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market.

    I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK construction sector, and exactly why it now costs £76,000 more to build a house than it did in 2020.

    Plus, I look at the seismic shock of the local elections - what does a Nigel Farage/Reform UK surge mean for landlords, rent controls, and the bond markets?

    If you are a property investor, developer, or just trying to navigate UK interest rates and inflation, this is the only macroeconomic breakdown you need this week.

    👇 SUBSCRIBE & DROP YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS! 👇

    In this 1-Hour Live Stream, I cover:

    Trumpwatch: The US Court blocks global tariffs & the UK local election fallout.

    The Reality of the High Street: Why 46% of homes are withdrawing unsold.

    Halifax House Price Index: The brutal North-South property divide.

    Macro Data: S&P PMIs flash red for construction as supply pipelines dry up.

    Gilts & Swaps: Why "Higher for Longer" interest rates are locked in.

    The Deep Dive: How political shifts will impact your property portfolio and EPC illusions.

    ⏱️ Video Chapters / Timestamps

    00:00 - Intro: Welcome to the Sunday Supplement Live!

    02:15 - Trumpwatch: Local Election Shocks & Trade War Updates

    12:30 - UK Property Market: 637k Listings & The "Hopium" Epidemic

    20:45 - The 27.4% Pricing Delusion: Why Half the Market is Failing

    28:00 - Halifax House Price Index: Real Terms Shrinkage & The North-South Divide

    36:15 - The PMI Horror Show: UK Construction is Cratering

    45:00 - Supply Chain Crisis: The £76k "New Build Tax" & Material Costs

    51:30 - Gilts, Swaps & Interest Rates: Are We Stuck at 4.5%?

    55:20 - The Deep Dive: How Politics & Populism Will Impact Landlords

    1:00:00 - Live Q&A and Final Thoughts #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

    ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven***
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    1 hr and 8 mins
  • Pricing Hopium - Housing, Tariffs and the End of Hope

    Pricing Hopium - Housing, Tariffs and the End of Hope
    May 9 2026

    Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium

    Show Notes:

    Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real numbers on your acquisitions, secure your spot now: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

    Welcome back to the Propenomix Podcast. In this episode, we are breaking down my latest article and deep-dive: "Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks, and The Death of Pricing Hopium."

    We are officially in an era where sentiment and headlines don't pay the bills - structural data, deep economic analysis, and pragmatism do. Today, we cut through the noise to explore the macroeconomic drivers actually influencing UK property returns right now.

    We discuss what I refer to as "Whisky Carrots" (the genuine, mature incentives and opportunities in the market) versus the "Tech Sticks" (regulatory pressures, EPC targets, and compliance data forcing landlords' hands). Most importantly, we dissect the "Death of Pricing Hopium" - why the era of waiting for zero-interest-rate valuations to magically return is over, and why sellers and investors must finally face the reality of the current economic cycle.

    If you want to make investment decisions with confidence rather than fear, grab a notebook. It's time to look at the real numbers.

    CHAPTERS & TIMESTAMPS:

    • Introduction & Cutting Through the Property Headlines

    • The Macro Landscape: Inflation, Yields, & The Reality of the Economy

    • What are "Whisky Carrots"? (Finding Genuine Value & Mature Incentives)

    • The "Tech Sticks": EPCs, New Regulations, and The Cost of Non-Compliance

    • The Death of Pricing Hopium: Why Sellers Must Face Reality Now

    • Capital Flows, Commodities, & Global Macro Trends into 2027

    • Adapting Your Property Strategy (Hold, Fold, or Refinance?)

    • Audience Q&A: 4% Mortgages, Margins, & Portfolio Restructuring

    • Final Thoughts & How to Read the Sunday Supplement

    RESOURCES & LINKS:

    🎟️ Join the next Property Business Workshop (Focus: Due Diligence): Bulletproof your acquisition strategy by booking your ticket here: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

    📖 Read the original article: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ

    ✉️ Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://propenomix.com/

    💼 Connect with Adam on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/

    ABOUT ADAM LAWRENCE:

    Adam is the founder of Propenomix, author of the acclaimed Sunday Supplements economic newsletter, and host of the Propenomix Podcast. With a corporate background in wealth management and a property career that started in earnest in 2011, Adam has been involved in over 850+ UK property deals and portfolios. His approach blends real economics, structural data, and practical investor experience to empower you to build strategies that align with real capital markets.

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    1 hr and 14 mins
  • Lowering the Speed Limit to Save the Economy (And Other Bureaucratic Delusions)

    Lowering the Speed Limit to Save the Economy (And Other Bureaucratic Delusions)
    Mar 30 2026
    The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement. We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting your portfolio right now. The facts have changed, and your strategy needs to change with them. What we cover in this week's episode: Geopolitics & Trumponomics: Tariffs are back on the menu with a maximum threat of 15% . Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is sending European wholesale gas prices up nearly 100% on the month . The UK Property Market: We've hit a 10-year high for March listings . Transactions are functional , but the glut of supply has led to the longest average time to sell since 2013 . Bond Market Bloodbath: The flagship 10-year gilt is threatening the 5% yield mark for the first time since the financial crisis . We discuss why you must stress-test your debt exits at 6% to 6.25% . Deep Dive: The £1.7bn MFS Collapse: A forensic look at the Market Financial Solutions administration . We break down the "double pledging" allegations , the massive institutional contagion , and the incoming fire sale of 250 Prime Central London properties . Bank of England's 9-0 Hold: Why the MPC voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75% , the BoE's expectation that inflation will bounce back to 3.5% , and the very real threat of stagflation as GDP crawls at 0.1% . The Labour Market & Construction: Why self-employment plummeted by a staggering 242k in 2025 , how businesses are turning to automation instead of hiring , and why the 1.5m homes goal is an utter pipedream as planning apps fall again . Generation Rent's EPC Fantasy: Breaking down the new £10,000 EPC cost cap and why backdoor rent controls will simply drive landlords to sell up and buy 5% government bonds instead . This is not a time for marginal deals . Tune in to get the raw data and the macroeconomic perspective you need to defend your portfolio and spot the generational acquisition opportunities hiding in the distress . Listen now on all major platforms.
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    1 hr and 15 mins
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