The Media is Watching Greenland. I'm Watching the Bond Yields.

While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn't just populism; it's market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it.

Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the Resolution Foundation. But before you panic, look at the maths. We are staring down the barrel of 0.2% real household disposable income growth and a demographic cliff where deaths finally outnumber births. The era of cheap money and easy capital growth is over. 2026 is about survival, defensive yields, and cash flow.

In this week's Macroscope and Deep Dive, we strip away the "realistic optimism" marketing fluff to look at the cold, hard data:

• Trumponomics & Market Interference: Why the $200bn MBS purchase is a "crisis move" in non-crisis times, and why US yield compression is the only thing saving UK borrowers right now.

• The "Zombie" Economy: The Resolution Foundation calls it a "mild zombie apocalypse," but with insolvencies at 2011 highs and stagnant wages, the "reallocation" of labour looks a lot like pain for the private sector.

• Savills' 2026 Outlook: They're predicting a 3% base rate and a return to "normality." I break down why "normality" now means high regulation, zero supply, and why you shouldn't bank on capital growth to bail out a bad yield.

• The Density Delusion: The Policy Exchange wants "Gentle Density" and mansion blocks. A lovely idea, until it hits the reality of the 18-metre rule and the Building Safety Act.

The Takeaway: If your strategy relies on a V-shaped recovery or a return to the low-rate environment of 2021, you are fighting the maths. 2026 is a year for the brave, but only if the numbers stack up on day one.

The Next Step: If you want to professionalise your portfolio and stop relying on luck, join the workshop. This is where we do the work the industry ignores. Join here: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Challenge: Forward this episode to your broker or investment partner. Ask them if their 2026 projections account for a 0.2% growth in tenant disposable income. If they don't have an answer, you need to talk.

Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year's worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (especially on rents!).

We also tackle the return of "Trump-onomics" and the concept of "Net Wars" , alongside a deep dive into the UK's "Inclusive Wealth" accounts - proof that the economy hasn't fully recovered from 2020, even if GDP says otherwise.

Plus, we break down the latest Nationwide House Price Index , Chris Watkin's data on why volume - not price - is the new metric of health , and why a "flat" market might be your best buying opportunity this year.

In this episode:

• Trump-onomics: Venezuela, oil prices, and the "Putinization" of US foreign policy.

• Market Health: Why transaction volume is beating price inflation (feat. data from Chris Watkin).

• The "Real" Economy: Why ONS Inclusive Wealth data shows we are still burning the furniture to heat the house.

• Deep Dive (2026 Predictions): Adam vs. The AI.

• • House Prices: Why Adam predicts +1.5% while the consensus says higher.

  • Interest Rates: Why the Base Rate might stick at 3.5%.

  • Rents: The AI predicts a 6.5% surge, but Adam explains why affordability will cap it at 3.5%.

• Political Outlook: Will Starmer survive 2026? Plus, the looming "concrete vs. countryside" civil war.

Links:

• Join the Property Business Workshop (Jan 22): tinyurl.com/pbwnine

The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026.

From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game.

Key Topics Discussed:

• The BoE Rate Cut: Analyzing the split decision to cut to 3.75% and why the "Hawks" and "Doves" are divided.

• The Unemployment Trap: Unemployment breaks the 5% barrier (5.1%) while youth unemployment hits a staggering 16%.

• Trump 2.0 Trade Deals: How the UK is navigating "preferred partner" status and what 10% tariffs mean for manufacturing.

• Property Market Stats: Week 49 data shows sales are up, but fall-throughs remain sticky at 25.8%.

• Rental Market Warning: Why rental stock outside London is surging, and why investors must target 7-9% gross yields (North/Midlands) to survive high mortgage costs.

• The Private vs. Public Gap: Public sector pay is up 7.6%, while the private sector has shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs.

Strategic Takeaway: The era of passive capital growth is paused. For 2026, the game is about active management and cash flow. We discuss why tenant retention is now your primary risk mitigation strategy and why mortgage rates for limited companies will likely settle in the mid-5% range.

Buy your workshop tickets - Early Bird still available! www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators.

From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else.

In this episode, we cover:

• The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the market.

• Generational Divide: How the elderly now "Own England" (62% of outright owners are 65+), while working-age tenants remain captive.

• The Pricing Disconnect: Analyzing the massive 29.3% gap between seller expectations and actual sale prices.

• Construction in Crisis: The steepest downturn in 5.5 years (PMI 39.4) and what it means for housing supply.

• The Human Cost: Rising "structural unhappiness" and the fragility of the tenant base.

• Global Shocks: Trumponomics, tariffs, and the US/UK Economic Prosperity Deal.

Links & Resources: 🎟️ Join the Workshop: tinyurl.com/pbwnine #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Economics #UKHousing

The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you)

The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring.

In this episode:

• Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing.

• The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter).

• Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise.

The Propenomix Verdict: The market is shifting. Are you positioned for it?

🎧 Listen now. Know a landlord with their head in the sand? Send them this episode.

🚀 Next Step: Don't just listen—prepare. Secure your seat at the Property Business Workshop and get the tactical edge: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy.

Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new electric vehicle excise duty, and the surprising lack of movement on Capital Gains Tax. They delve into the strategic nuances of the new "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million and dissect the government's approach to the rental market, including the likely inflationary pressure on rents due to increased landlord costs.

Beyond the headlines, this episode provides a unique, investor-focused perspective on:

• The "Black Hole" Narrative: Was the £22bn fiscal hole real or a political construct to justify tax hikes?

• Dividend Tax Hikes: A look at the 2% increase and its regressive impact on small business owners versus the "Amazon model" of aggressive reinvestment.

• The Property Market: Why the rental sector might see a "pass-through" of costs to tenants and how the freeze on thresholds affects market dynamics.

• Political Fallout: A sharp analysis of Kemi Badenoch's standout performance in opposition and what it signals for the future political landscape.

• Economic Forecasts: Why the OBR's 1.5% growth forecast might be more realistic than the government's optimism, and what "fiscal headroom" really means for future borrowing.

Whether you're a seasoned property investor, a business owner, or simply keen to understand the economic currents shaping the UK, this episode delivers the expert insight and "no-nonsense" analysis you need to navigate the post-budget landscape. Tune in for a session that goes beyond the dispatch box to reveal the real winners and losers of Budget 2025.