Ep. 25 — AI Platforms Hold, Everything Else Sinks

Mega-cap AI is still wearing the crown while small caps, memes, and the frothy AI sidecars get tossed overboard. Oil pops on headlines, energy stocks sink on ESG, and Whirlpool waves a recession flag for the consumer—right as the 10-year creeps higher. We sort the noise from the structural.

Today's stories:

• Intro — Futures shrug oil; why only the platform layer is holding up the tape.
• The Tape — Breadth rolls over; small caps crack; energy equities decouple from crude; risk comes off across AI beta, memes, and crypto.
• The Footnotes — ESG pressure on TotalEnergies, Sherritt exits Cuba, Malaysian bonds hit records with foreign central banks, Apollo moves to daily marks.
• The Nerd Corner — Platform vs derivative AI, nuclear PPAs as rate shields, and the IMF’s concentration risk warning.
• The Calls — We put numbers on QQQ, NVDA, and the 10-year.

The Calls:

• Tom: Nvidia closes ~1.5% lower (around $210); wrong if it reclaims $216 and holds.
• Ray: 10-year yield finishes above 4.41%; wrong if it slips below 4.35%.
• Alex: QQQ closes below 698; wrong if a late-day bid takes out the open.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 24 — Oil Craters on Iran Truce Rumors

Oil gets smoked on Iran truce chatter, AI chips rip on AMD’s blowout, and metals scream as yields slide — which is not the risk-on party you think it is. The Clowns untangle why gold up + stocks up means the dollar’s losing its grip, and where Nvidia’s margin story meets its expiration date.

Today's stories:

• The Tape — Oil dumps on an unsigned Iran MOU while US fuel exports hit records; AMD’s beat lifts the whole AI complex; metals rally alongside equities.
• The Footnotes — Gold loves lower real yields; Greece’s court win and the danger of local-law debt; private credit as UK property’s shadow bank; EU methane rules meet energy security.
• The Nerd Corner — AMD as credible second supplier caps Nvidia’s pricing power; rates as the AI ceiling; UK probes card fees and the unbundling risk for Visa/Mastercard/PayPal.

The Calls:

• Tom: AMD closes red, gives back about 5% from the open.
• Ray: Gold ETF finishes up at least 1% today (watch the 10-year at 4.4%).
• Alex: S&P ETF closes flat to slightly up.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | X

Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 23 — AMD Rips, Oil Crashes, Gold Pops

AMD blows the doors off with a monster data center print, oil craters on Iran de-escalation chatter, and gold rips alongside stocks — the market's "permission trade" is on. But banks won't confirm the party, and Friday's jobs data could nuke the whole thesis.

Today's stories:

• Intro: A whipsaw open — AMD crushes, oil tanks, gold pops, and the Fed gets “cover.”
• The Tape: Crude dives while energy equities shrug, small caps pop, banks flatline, and gold rallies with stocks.
• The Footnotes: Reserves plunge, Hormuz workarounds are costly PR, inflation hedges reload, private credit buys at 65¢, SEC eyes killing quarterlies, Canadian miner halted.
• The Nerd Corner: The railroad analogy for AI capex — real demand, murky ROI, and leverage hiding in nicer drawers.
• The Calls: Small caps fade, AMD fills the gap, and the 10-year slips under 4.38%.

The Calls:

• Tom: AMD opens near 420 and closes below 400 — gap gets sold.
• Ray: 10-year yield finishes below 4.38% as oil’s collapse eases inflation pressure.
• Alex: Russell ETF closes up less than 0.5% — small caps fade the morning pop.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | X

Produced using AI-generated voices.