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The Disciplined Investor Podcast

By: Andrew Horowitz and guests - Frank Curzio Ben Hunt Barry Ritholtz Leo Laporte Keith McCullough TDI
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  • The Disciplined Investor Podcast
    2022+
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Episodes
  • TDI Podcast: Dismal Science (#866)

    TDI Podcast: Dismal Science (#866)
    Apr 28 2024
    Kicking off the MegaCap Earnings - some concerning items. Rate Cut Bets Fizzle Yields Keep Rising The VIX – Hovering around 16 And our Guest – Johns Williams from ShadowStats John Williams, founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies. Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting. An early client's large manufacturer of commercial airplanes had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool. Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it. The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless. That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics. The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience. Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients "large and small” including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress. Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004. That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services. Find out more about ShadowStats.com Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (MSFT), (META)
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    1 hr and 4 mins
  • TDI Podcast: Retirement Secrets/Mistakes (#865)

    TDI Podcast: Retirement Secrets/Mistakes (#865)
    Apr 21 2024
    Herky-Jerky market action continues. Powell puts down the gavel. Tariffs enter the picture again And our Guest this week - Steve Selengut talking Retirement Money Secrets and The Biggest Mistakes People make investing. Steve Selengut, a 40+ year professional investment manager/advisor/RIA/IAR whose current adventure is coaching both individuals and other advisors in creating income independence for themselves and their clients. I’m also promoting my 2nd book, Retirement Money Secrets. Steve was a private investment manager for 44 years, personally managing around 325 individual portfolios in the USA and abroad. One of a very few investment book authors who have directly managed other people's money. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NFLX)
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    1 hr and 4 mins
  • TDI Podcast: Robbie’s Matrix (#864)

    TDI Podcast: Robbie’s Matrix (#864)
    Apr 14 2024
    What commodities look attractive here and why? Inflation CPI reports - just not looking good Major banks kick off earnings season.. Guest: Robbie Miles, CFA - Allianz Global Robbie Miles, CFA, ACA - Portfolio Manager (Director) in the Global Thematic Equity team, London Robbie is a Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors (AGI) with over 12 years of investment experience. He is the lead portfolio manager of two global equity strategies, Positive Change and Food Security, having previously co-run the Global Sustainability fund. He is a Director within the Global Thematic team, which combines bottom-up stock research with thematic analysis. Robbie joined AGI in 2014, spending 4 of those years in San Francisco, leading the firm’s sustainable investment integration process in the US. Before joining Allianz Global Investors, he qualified as a Chartered Accountant with PwC. Robbie has a first class degree in Environment & Business from the University of Leeds. He is a CFA charterholder. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (OIL), (DBC), (AAPL), (C), (JPM)
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    52 mins
Leadership Economics Personal Finance Politics & Government
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