Americans don’t like fruit cake.

This issue comes up every December when Sari, having stolen the job from me, sets about making the family Christmas cake. It is a divine confection - currants, sultanas, cherries, candied peel and almonds, liberally presoaked in whiskey and then folded in with flour, eggs, butter and spices and baked for hours at a low temperature. The scent in the kitchen is intoxicating but temporary as the cake, when cooled, is encased first in almond icing and then in royal icing. It weighs in at a hefty eight pounds and tastes magnificent when I can no longer restrain myself on Christmas Eve or Christmas Morning.

Forecasting the economy right now feels a bit like trying to carve a path through thick jungle undergrowth on a foggy day. There are multiple layers of confusion and a forecast has to address these issues first before tracing out a possible path forward.

The Red River of the North starts at the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail rivers and forms most of the border between Minnesota and North Dakota. It then crosses into Manitoba and empties into Lake Winnipeg before its waters finally flow into the sea at Hudson Bay. Cities have grown up along its banks including Fargo, Grand Forks and Winnipeg and their residents are all too aware of one unfortunate feature of the river. Unlike most large U.S. rivers, it flows from south to north.