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Geopolitical Cousins

Geopolitical Cousins

By: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
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Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.Copyright 2026 Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic Economics Personal Finance Philosophy Social Sciences
Episodes
  • The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees

    The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees
    Jun 27 2026

    Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next South Korea, corruption and all, while Putin's 2022 claim that "there is no Ukraine" ages into one of history's great own-goals. There's a new Ukraine being born, and Putin is a founding father :)

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Show Updates Teasers

    (00:28) - Shaggy Marco Check In

    (01:42) - Reflecting Pool Absurdity

    (04:14) - World Cup Surprise Hit

    (08:59) - Buc ees America Vibes

    (13:45) - Freedom Why Not

    (17:45) - Private Beach Reality Check

    (18:48) - Zelensky Propaganda Blitz

    (20:47) - Crimea Air Defense Strain

    (23:25) - Putin Weakness Pivot Talk

    (29:24) - Russian Economy Under Hood

    (34:03) - Drones War Revolution

    (35:00) - Defense Industry Oligopoly

    (36:11) - Putin Mobilization Tells All

    (40:15) - Drones and Pain Tolerance

    (45:52) - Counter Drone Arms Race

    (46:48) - 1948 Israel and Supply Lines

    (55:25) - Why Conquest Usually Fails

    (59:21) - Esprit de Corps Matters

    (01:02:50) - Azerbaijan Drone Blueprint

    (01:04:00) - Ukraine Economic Miracle Bet

    (01:07:28) - Putin Own Goal Finale

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    Referenced in the Show:

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    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 hr and 8 mins
  • The Serfs Will Have Drones

    The Serfs Will Have Drones
    Jun 22 2026
    Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology(13:39) - Can States Control AI(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 hr and 37 mins
  • The Most Important Of All Unimportant Forecasts

    The Most Important Of All Unimportant Forecasts
    Jun 10 2026

    World Cup Time!!!!!!!

    Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests.

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins

    (01:23) - Meet The Authors

    (03:02) - Juan Football Roots

    (07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories

    (10:07) - Robert Germany Stories

    (14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening

    (19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard

    (21:50) - Inside The Model

    (28:28) - What Doesnt Predict

    (30:22) - Group Stage Surprises

    (31:40) - Home Edge And Curse

    (35:16) - Why Champions Collapse

    (36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse

    (37:37) - Group F Chaos Picks

    (39:36) - Bracket Quarterfinals

    (41:30) - Portugal Dark Horse

    (43:30) - France Wins It All

    (45:42) - France Identity Debate

    (47:11) - Football And Immigration

    (50:22) - Geopolitical Matches

    (56:27) - USA 2010 Donovan Goal

    (01:01:01) - Can Soccer Unite America

    (01:03:37) - Building US Infrastructure

    (01:09:30) - Closing Thoughts Farewell

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    Referenced in the Show:

    2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
    Show More Show Less
    1 hr and 13 mins
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