June 26: Five Days, One Lesson: the Selloff Was Macro, Not Demand; the Watch Retailers Turn; Pandora's Standout Run; the AI Rout May Be Ending
This was the week our central thesis got stress-tested, and it held: the luxury equities went on a violent round trip, sold off hard then clawed most of it back, while the resale market that actually measures demand never moved from its highs.

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The week in review:
- A round trip. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were dumped with everything else, as a deepening AI-driven tech selloff dragged the Nasdaq lower, gold fell more than 6 percent on the week, and oil collapsed back below 70 dollars. The European luxury complex fell as much as 6 percent at its worst.
- The decoupling. On Wednesday, luxury rallied even as the broad market kept falling, the first sign the de-rating had found a floor. On Thursday the recovery broadened to the last holdouts, the listed watch retailers, which had slid for three straight sessions before finally turning.
- Standout and laggard. Pandora was the week's clear winner, climbing almost every session to fresh highs. Watches of Switzerland and Swatch were the laggards, under pressure most of the week before stabilizing.
- The constant. The resale market never flinched. It held flat at its cycle highs from Monday to Friday, and the saleroom kept producing trophies (a $63.9M Modigliani in London this week). The equities were pricing macro, rates, risk, and a tech-led liquidation, not a demand problem.
- The tell for next week. After Thursday's close, blowout Micron earnings sparked a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally, the first hint the rout that drove all this may be ending. Watch the resale series: it has been right all week.

Where it stands (latest close, Thursday June 25):
- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros, Hermès 1,613.50 euros, Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs, Kering 267.90 euros, Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs, Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence, Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (the week's standout).
- Friday's session was quiet and mixed into the open.

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June 25: European Luxury Rises as Tech Falls a Fourth Day; Watches of Switzerland Snaps a 3-Day Slide; the Resale Anchor Holds
Last night we asked whether the luxury bounce would broaden to the listed watch retailers and hold. Tonight: it did. For a second straight session, European luxury rose even as the broad market fell again, and the watch retailers, down three days running, finally turned. The floor we flagged is looking real, exactly as our resale data implied.

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The signal:
- A thesis confirmed. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were oversold on the macro. Yesterday they bounced narrowly; today the bounce broadened to the last holdouts, the watch names. The de-rating was about rates and risk, not demand.
- The macro stayed under pressure into the US close (Nasdaq down 2.5 percent, a fourth day of the AI selloff; gold down ~3 percent; oil down ~5 percent), yet European luxury decoupled upward again, with the watch names turning: Swatch +1.6 percent, Watches of Switzerland +0.6 percent (first up day in four).
- The tell for tomorrow: after the close, Micron's blowout earnings ignited a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally across Asia, the first sign the week's tech rout may be ending. If the macro headwind lifts, the luxury floor only firms.
- The resale market never moved. Through four whipsaw sessions it has sat at cycle highs. The equities were pricing rates and a tech liquidation, not a demand problem, and are now converging back toward the demand our data measures. The test flips from "will the bounce broaden?" to "does it stick?"

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros (+0.3%), Hermès 1,613.50 euros (-0.9%), Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs (+0.5%), Kering 267.90 euros (+1.0%), Brunello Cucinelli 81.14 euros (-1.5%), Burberry 1,083.0 pence (+1.2%), Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs (+1.6%), Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence (+0.6%), Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (+3.0%).
- US-listed: Tapestry 146.00 dollars (-3.0%), Capri 18.86 dollars (-1.5%), Signet 83.63 dollars (-1.5%), Movado 38.09 dollars (-1.6%), Ferrari 352.20 dollars (+2.1%).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 2.6 percent, S&P 500 down 0.8 percent, gold about 4,041 dollars an ounce (down 3.4 percent), WTI crude 71.47 dollars (down 4.5 percent), the dollar index 101.4 (up 0.4 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent.

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June 24: The Luxury De-Rate Finds a Floor; Richemont +4% and Pandora +6% as Tech Routs Again; Watch Retailers the Lone Holdout
After two days of falling with the macro, the luxury equities decoupled and rallied, even as the tech selloff deepened and gold and oil cratered. The first sign the de-rating is finding a floor, which fits what our resale data has said all along: the selling was about rates and risk, not demand. The lone holdout was the listed watch retailers, down a third straight day.

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The signal:
- The macro stayed ugly: the Nasdaq fell another 3.4 percent on deepening AI-spending fears, gold broke below 4,100 dollars, and oil collapsed almost 9 percent under 70 dollars. Yet European luxury went the other way, with Richemont up 4 percent, Pandora up almost 6 percent, and LVMH, Hermès, and Kering each up 1 to 2 percent.
- The exception: the listed watch retailers kept sliding. Watches of Switzerland fell for a third straight session, with Swatch, Signet, and Movado all lower. The watch names are being singled out even on an up day for luxury.
- The resale market has not moved. Through three volatile sessions, the top of our database has sat at its cycle highs: a watch at 10.8 million dollars, a jewel at about 25.6 million, a Birkin near half a million, plus a recent Phillips New York sale that was the highest-grossing watch auction in US history.
- The test: watch whether the bounce broadens to the watch retailers and holds, and whether the resale series stays firm. If resale holds, the floor is real and the de-rating was a macro story. If resale rolls over, the watch retailers were the early warning and the bounce is a trap.

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: LVMH 493.00 euros (up 1.9 percent), Hermès 1,629.00 euros (up 1.5 percent), Richemont 185.50 Swiss francs (up 4.0 percent), Kering 265.35 euros (up 1.0 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 82.42 euros (up 0.7 percent), Burberry 1,085.0 pence (down 1.6 percent), Swatch 202.90 Swiss francs (down 0.7 percent), Watches of Switzerland 707.5 pence (down 1.7 percent), Pandora 688.60 Danish kroner (up 5.6 percent).
- US-listed: Tapestry 149.75 dollars (up 0.4 percent), Capri 19.13 dollars (down 1.7 percent), Signet 85.09 dollars (down 1.9 percent), Movado 37.99 dollars (down 3.2 percent), Ferrari 348.75 dollars (up 0.1 percent).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 3.4 percent, S&P 500 down 2.0 percent, gold about 4,014 dollars an ounce (down 5.0 percent, below 4,100), WTI crude 69.87 dollars (down 8.8 percent, below 70), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent, the dollar index near a one-year high.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

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June 23: Watch and Jewelry Retailers Sink on a Fed-Hike Scare; the Resale Market Holds at Its Highs; Tapestry +5% as Capri −6%
Today's signal: the listed watch and jewelry retailers were among the hardest hit in a broad, macro-driven selloff, yet the resale market for the very same goods sits at its cycle highs.

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The signal:
- A hawkish repricing drove everything down but the dollar. Bank of America and Deutsche Bank both said they now expect a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, sending the dollar to a one-year high and the 10-year yield toward 4.5 percent. Nasdaq fell about 4 percent, gold dropped more than 5 percent, oil nearly 5 percent.
- The listed watch and jewelry retailers took the brunt: Watches of Switzerland down about 4 percent, Swatch about 2 percent, Signet nearly 4 percent. The broad European houses were mixed (LVMH up about 0.5 percent, Richemont down 2.2 percent, Burberry down nearly 6 percent), and the accessible US names split sharply: Tapestry up almost 5 percent while Capri fell almost 6 percent on the same day. That dispersion is the signature of positioning and flows, not a read on luxury demand.
- The resale market did not flinch. The most recent watch cycle set records (a 75.8 million dollar Phillips New York sale, the highest-grossing watch auction in US history), and the top lots in our database continue to clear seven and eight figures.
- The testable question: watch the resale series. If resale prices for watches and jewelry roll over, the retailers' weakness is an early demand warning. As long as resale holds, a day like today is a rates story, not a demand story.

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: Hermès 1,605.00 euros (down 0.9 percent), LVMH 483.70 euros (up 0.5 percent), Richemont 178.35 Swiss francs (down 2.2 percent), Kering 262.80 euros (down 1.2 percent), Burberry 1,070.0 pence (down 5.7 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 82.34 euros (down 2.8 percent), Swatch 204.30 Swiss francs (down 1.9 percent), Watches of Switzerland 704.0 pence (down 4.1 percent), Pandora 652.00 Danish kroner (up 1.9 percent).
- US-listed: Tapestry 150.53 dollars (up 4.9 percent), Capri 19.15 dollars (down 5.8 percent), Signet 84.92 dollars (down 3.8 percent), Movado 38.69 dollars (up 0.6 percent), Ferrari 344.87 dollars (down 4.8 percent).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 4.1 percent, S&P 500 down 2.5 percent, gold about 4,129 dollars an ounce (down 5.3 percent), WTI crude 73.05 dollars (down 4.9 percent), the dollar index near a one-year high at 101.4 (up 1.3 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.5 percent.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

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June 22: European Luxury Sells Off; Hermès Falls 6% and LVMH 3.6%; Auction Demand Holds at the Highs
Today's signal: a sharp divergence. The broad US market rallied on progress in the US and Iran peace talks, but the listed luxury names fell hard, with Hermès down almost 6 percent and LVMH off more than 3 percent. The driver was macro, a dollar at a one-year high and higher yields, not demand. Underneath those brands, our auction data still shows top-end demand at its highs.

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The signal:
- European luxury equities sold off even as risk assets rose, a rate-and-currency move rather than a demand move. The more accessible US-listed names (Tapestry, Movado) rose, consistent with a rotation read.
- Our secondary-market data runs the other way: the single biggest auction result in our database over the past 90 days is a 17.4 million dollar coloured diamond at Christie's, and the most recent watch cycle set fresh records (a 75.8 million dollar Phillips sale, the highest-grossing watch auction in US history).
- The testable question: does resale demand lead the listed cycle, or lag it? Resale prices are what end-buyers actually pay, so they can reveal pricing power before it reaches the income statement.

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: Hermès 1,620.00 euros (down 5.9 percent), LVMH 481.35 euros (down 3.6 percent), Burberry 1,102.5 pence (down 3.9 percent), Kering 266.10 euros (down 2.2 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 81.84 euros (down 6.8 percent), Richemont 182.30 Swiss francs (down 0.7 percent), Swatch 208.30 Swiss francs (down 1.1 percent), Watches of Switzerland 720.0 pence (down 0.5 percent), Pandora 639.80 Danish kroner (down 2.4 percent).
- US-listed: Tapestry 149.20 dollars (up 2.3 percent), Movado 39.25 dollars (up 5.4 percent), Signet 86.73 dollars (up 0.3 percent), Capri 19.46 dollars (down 1.4 percent), Ferrari 348.42 dollars (down 1.7 percent).
- Macro: gold about 4,211 dollars an ounce (down 2.8 percent), silver down 6.5 percent, WTI crude 74.20 dollars (down 2.4 percent), the dollar index near a one-year high at 101.0 (up 1.5 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.5 percent.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.)

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June 19: This Week's Signal — Luxury Equities De-Rate on Rates While Auction Demand Holds at the Highs
Listed luxury repriced lower this week on macro, while the secondary market underneath those brands is still printing cycle-high demand. The stocks moved on discount rates, not on demand. The gap between the two is the read.

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THE TAPE (listed side)
- European luxury ended a volatile week with a down session Friday: Hermès −2.4%, Kering −1.7%, LVMH −1.2%, Burberry −1.1%, Richemont −0.8%; Watches of Switzerland +1.5% (lone gainer).
- Driver: macro, not idiosyncratic. Higher rates compress multiples on long-duration quality-growth names — luxury is the textbook case. Read the drawdown as a rate move.
- (US large-cap luxury close: re-spot.)

THE ALT-DATA (secondary market)
- Most recent watch cycle set records: Phillips' New York sale was the highest-grossing watch auction in US history ($75.8M, every lot sold), incl. a $13.9M F.P. Journe (world record, independent maker). Not the profile of a demand problem.
- Whether that strength holds more broadly is what our secondary-market index measures — resale prices across the major houses, mapped to the listed names. Pull the series in the sandbox.

THE READ
- This week's equity selloff was a rate move, not a demand move — and the auction data confirms end-demand hasn't cracked.
- The open question our data answers: does secondary-market demand LEAD the listed cycle (de-rating = opportunity) or LAG it (a warning)? The signal lives in the gap.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
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June 18: Stocks Rebound but Gold and Silver Get Routed; Luxury Bounces Back; a $36M Pearl on Rarity vs the Spot Price
A two-sided day as stocks rebounded and luxury shares bounced back on both continents, but the same Fed signal of higher-for-longer rates that lifted the dollar and bond yields drove precious metals sharply lower, with gold and silver both falling hard.

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Luxury Equities Rebound
- Europe higher: Kering (KER) +4.4% (leader); Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) +2.4%; Hermès (RMS) +2.0%; Richemont (CFR) and Burberry (BRBY) each +1.7%; Swatch (UHR) +0.5%. Laggard: LVMH (MC) −1.2%.
- US higher: Movado (MOV) +3.3% — the name we flagged yesterday as one investors give little credit, leading the bounce; Capri/Versace (CPRI) +3.0%; Ralph Lauren (RL) +2.3%; Ferrari (RACE) +2.2%; Signet (SIG) +2.0%. Laggard: Tapestry (TPR) −1.6%.

A Note on Ferrari
- Bloomberg reports Ferrari is using orders for its new EV, the Luce (~$636K, coolly received, designed by Jony Ive's LoveFrom), as a loyalty test: buying one helps protect a client's access to coveted limited models like the ~$2.1M LaFerrari Aperta.
- The takeaway: at the very top of luxury, the rarest products are allocated to the most loyal, highest-spending clients. Demand is engineered as much as met.

The Sell-Off in Metals
- Gold fell ~3.3% to ~$4,214/oz; silver dropped ~7.3% which was a sharp reversal just two days after gold set records.
- The cause is the Fed: a tilt toward higher rates means a stronger dollar, both bad for gold (which pays no yield and is dollar-priced). Oil eased ~2% to ~$75/bbl.

Rarity vs the Spot Price
- Gold and silver carry a spot price that can swing several percent in a day. The rarest physical objects have no spot price and they trade on scarcity.

The Wider Tape
- A tech-led rebound: Nasdaq +1.9%, S&P 500 +1.1%, Dow roughly flat. The dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose which are the same forces pressuring gold.
- Fed footnote: in his debut, Warsh skipped publishing his own rate-path "dot" and launched a sweeping review of Fed communications which is a sign he means to reshape the institution.

Week Ahead
- Art Basel runs through the weekend; the collector-car world turns toward Monterey Car Week in August.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

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June 17: Luxury Stocks Fall Worldwide as the Rally Pauses; Gold Breaks Its Record Streak; the Auction Market Holds Firm
After a run of records, luxury stocks fell on both sides of the Atlantic, the Dow and S&P slipped, and even gold retreated all ahead of the Fed's first decision under Kevin Warsh. The one market that didn't flinch: the auction room.

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Luxury Equities — The Close
- Europe, all lower: Burberry (BRBY) −2.6% (weakest); LVMH (MC) −1.8%; Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) −1.5%; Hermès (RMS) −1.3%; Richemont (CFR) −0.5%; Kering (KER) −0.2%; Swatch (UHR) −0.1%.
- US, all lower except one: Capri/Versace (CPRI) −5.0% (worst on the board); Zegna (ZGN) −4.0%; Ferrari (RACE) −3.2%; Tapestry/Coach (TPR) −2.4%; Signet (SIG) −1.8%; Ralph Lauren (RL) −0.7%. Lone gainer: Movado (MOV) +0.4% — a mid-market fashion-watch maker squeezed by smartwatches and untouched by the collectible-watch boom, so a name investors give little credit.

Gold Takes a Breather
- Gold closed ~$4,276/oz, −1.3% with its first down day after back-to-back records. Silver −2.8%. Oil slid again to ~$75/bbl.
- For once, the hard-asset trade and the stock market moved together, both lower, as investors took profits after a powerful rally.

The Saleroom Doesn't Flinch
- Stocks fell, gold fell — the collectibles market did not. ALT/FNDATA data: across watches and jewelry alone, 26 separate lots have each sold for more than $1M in the past 90 days (19 of them jewelry).
- A pullback in a luxury company's share price is not a pullback in the price of a trophy diamond.

The Tape
- The Dow fell ~1.0% (off yesterday's record); the S&P 500 lost ~1.2%, tech-led; the Nasdaq slipped too.
- The driver is the calendar: the Federal Reserve's first rate decision under new chair Kevin Warsh is due later this week, and investors are taking profits and waiting after the US–Iran-deal run-up.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

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