June 26: Five Days, One Lesson: the Selloff Was Macro, Not Demand; the Watch Retailers Turn; Pandora's Standout Run; the AI Rout May Be Ending
This was the week our central thesis got stress-tested, and it held: the luxury equities went on a violent round trip, sold off hard then clawed most of it back, while the resale market that actually measures demand never moved from its highs.

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The week in review:
- A round trip. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were dumped with everything else, as a deepening AI-driven tech selloff dragged the Nasdaq lower, gold fell more than 6 percent on the week, and oil collapsed back below 70 dollars. The European luxury complex fell as much as 6 percent at its worst.
- The decoupling. On Wednesday, luxury rallied even as the broad market kept falling, the first sign the de-rating had found a floor. On Thursday the recovery broadened to the last holdouts, the listed watch retailers, which had slid for three straight sessions before finally turning.
- Standout and laggard. Pandora was the week's clear winner, climbing almost every session to fresh highs. Watches of Switzerland and Swatch were the laggards, under pressure most of the week before stabilizing.
- The constant. The resale market never flinched. It held flat at its cycle highs from Monday to Friday, and the saleroom kept producing trophies (a $63.9M Modigliani in London this week). The equities were pricing macro, rates, risk, and a tech-led liquidation, not a demand problem.
- The tell for next week. After Thursday's close, blowout Micron earnings sparked a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally, the first hint the rout that drove all this may be ending. Watch the resale series: it has been right all week.

Where it stands (latest close, Thursday June 25):
- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros, Hermès 1,613.50 euros, Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs, Kering 267.90 euros, Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs, Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence, Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (the week's standout).
- Friday's session was quiet and mixed into the open.

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June 25: European Luxury Rises as Tech Falls a Fourth Day; Watches of Switzerland Snaps a 3-Day Slide; the Resale Anchor Holds
Last night we asked whether the luxury bounce would broaden to the listed watch retailers and hold. Tonight: it did. For a second straight session, European luxury rose even as the broad market fell again, and the watch retailers, down three days running, finally turned. The floor we flagged is looking real, exactly as our resale data implied.

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The signal:
- A thesis confirmed. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were oversold on the macro. Yesterday they bounced narrowly; today the bounce broadened to the last holdouts, the watch names. The de-rating was about rates and risk, not demand.
- The macro stayed under pressure into the US close (Nasdaq down 2.5 percent, a fourth day of the AI selloff; gold down ~3 percent; oil down ~5 percent), yet European luxury decoupled upward again, with the watch names turning: Swatch +1.6 percent, Watches of Switzerland +0.6 percent (first up day in four).
- The tell for tomorrow: after the close, Micron's blowout earnings ignited a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally across Asia, the first sign the week's tech rout may be ending. If the macro headwind lifts, the luxury floor only firms.
- The resale market never moved. Through four whipsaw sessions it has sat at cycle highs. The equities were pricing rates and a tech liquidation, not a demand problem, and are now converging back toward the demand our data measures. The test flips from "will the bounce broaden?" to "does it stick?"

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros (+0.3%), Hermès 1,613.50 euros (-0.9%), Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs (+0.5%), Kering 267.90 euros (+1.0%), Brunello Cucinelli 81.14 euros (-1.5%), Burberry 1,083.0 pence (+1.2%), Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs (+1.6%), Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence (+0.6%), Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (+3.0%).
- US-listed: Tapestry 146.00 dollars (-3.0%), Capri 18.86 dollars (-1.5%), Signet 83.63 dollars (-1.5%), Movado 38.09 dollars (-1.6%), Ferrari 352.20 dollars (+2.1%).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 2.6 percent, S&P 500 down 0.8 percent, gold about 4,041 dollars an ounce (down 3.4 percent), WTI crude 71.47 dollars (down 4.5 percent), the dollar index 101.4 (up 0.4 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET

June 24: The Luxury De-Rate Finds a Floor; Richemont +4% and Pandora +6% as Tech Routs Again; Watch Retailers the Lone Holdout
After two days of falling with the macro, the luxury equities decoupled and rallied, even as the tech selloff deepened and gold and oil cratered. The first sign the de-rating is finding a floor, which fits what our resale data has said all along: the selling was about rates and risk, not demand. The lone holdout was the listed watch retailers, down a third straight day.

ALT/FNDATA
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The signal:
- The macro stayed ugly: the Nasdaq fell another 3.4 percent on deepening AI-spending fears, gold broke below 4,100 dollars, and oil collapsed almost 9 percent under 70 dollars. Yet European luxury went the other way, with Richemont up 4 percent, Pandora up almost 6 percent, and LVMH, Hermès, and Kering each up 1 to 2 percent.
- The exception: the listed watch retailers kept sliding. Watches of Switzerland fell for a third straight session, with Swatch, Signet, and Movado all lower. The watch names are being singled out even on an up day for luxury.
- The resale market has not moved. Through three volatile sessions, the top of our database has sat at its cycle highs: a watch at 10.8 million dollars, a jewel at about 25.6 million, a Birkin near half a million, plus a recent Phillips New York sale that was the highest-grossing watch auction in US history.
- The test: watch whether the bounce broadens to the watch retailers and holds, and whether the resale series stays firm. If resale holds, the floor is real and the de-rating was a macro story. If resale rolls over, the watch retailers were the early warning and the bounce is a trap.

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: LVMH 493.00 euros (up 1.9 percent), Hermès 1,629.00 euros (up 1.5 percent), Richemont 185.50 Swiss francs (up 4.0 percent), Kering 265.35 euros (up 1.0 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 82.42 euros (up 0.7 percent), Burberry 1,085.0 pence (down 1.6 percent), Swatch 202.90 Swiss francs (down 0.7 percent), Watches of Switzerland 707.5 pence (down 1.7 percent), Pandora 688.60 Danish kroner (up 5.6 percent).
- US-listed: Tapestry 149.75 dollars (up 0.4 percent), Capri 19.13 dollars (down 1.7 percent), Signet 85.09 dollars (down 1.9 percent), Movado 37.99 dollars (down 3.2 percent), Ferrari 348.75 dollars (up 0.1 percent).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 3.4 percent, S&P 500 down 2.0 percent, gold about 4,014 dollars an ounce (down 5.0 percent, below 4,100), WTI crude 69.87 dollars (down 8.8 percent, below 70), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent, the dollar index near a one-year high.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET