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Everything Is Predictable

How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World

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Everything Is Predictable

By: Tom Chivers
Narrated by: Tom Chivers
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About this listen

 SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024

'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting . . . I finished it not only better informed about a captivating branch of mathematics, but with an invigorating sense of greater purchase on the world' OLIVER BURKEMAN

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.©2024 Tom Chivers (P)2024 Orion Publishing Group Limited Mathematics Professionals & Academics Science & Technology Programming Technology Human Brain Computer Science

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Critic reviews

From assessing the effectiveness of treatments, to the way consciousness works and the way we make decisions, Tom Chivers makes a compelling case that Bayes' Theorem is the one formula that everyone should understand (ANANYO BHATTACHARYA)
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Bayesianism bubbles away in scientific YT channels and pops up here and there. I found this deep dive into it very compelling, finishing the audio book in two days. I won't pretend I understood every word or every example at first pass (had to regularly pause, google, think, give up a few times, and I'm an post grad Aeronautical Engineer ffs🤦‍♂️), but overall it is a great analysis of the subject and presented in a very entertaining (ie, dry-British) style!!

Challenging and rewarding

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Excellent detail, very interesting and a great introduction to this topic for the non statistician. A great overview with lovely real life examples.

A very informative, easy to listen to book on bayesian theory.

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Everything’s Predictable is a masterclass in making the complex intelligible. Tom Chivers brings his signature wit and clarity to a topic often wrapped in jargon—showing us not just how prediction works, but why it matters in everything from gambling to government policy. Whether you’re a statistics nerd or just prediction-curious, Chivers makes concepts like Bayesian reasoning and model uncertainty feel not only understandable, but exciting. It's rare to find a book that’s both intellectually rigorous and genuinely fun—this is one of them.

A Brilliantly Accessible Dive into the World of Prediction and Probability

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Content great, well read, felt like I’ve learnt something. Will be reading his other books.

Brilliant

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