$VEON trades like a busted emerging-markets telecom, but it owns 84% of Ukraine's Kyivstar and a Pakistani fintech, JazzCash, that already moves 15% of the country's GDP. Samit Umatiya of UIG Funds lays out the sum-of-the-parts case for why the holdco could be worth roughly 4x today's price, and Andrew pushes back hard the whole way: a not-so-storied history of value destruction, a sanctioned 45% shareholder, capital controls, and a long graveyard of telecoms that bungled every growth opportunity they ever had. The result is one long push and pull on whether the upside is real this time.

This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with a web terminal plus a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamentals straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Andrew uses it himself. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yav

Chapters:

00:00 The setup: a sum-of-the-parts EM telecom nobody talks about

01:31 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai

02:35 Who is Samit Umatiya and what is VEON

04:19 Vimpelcom to VEON: the history and the Russia exit

08:14 Why is the market asleep on this name?

11:31 The sum of the parts: Kyivstar plus four frontier markets

13:59 Bridging the EV gap: Andrew's $8B vs the bull's $3B holdco

16:36 Valuing a telecom on revenue: the "it's a tech company" case

17:54 JazzCash: 15% of Pakistan's GDP, never independently valued

21:00 The bridge to ~$1B of free cash flow and a 4x

23:40 Organic vs. bolt-on digital growth

24:34 Capital controls and getting cash out of the op-cos

27:11 What the market is missing: demographics and under-penetration

31:09 Starlink: competitor or partner in Ukraine's rebuild?

35:31 Digital stickiness and retention

37:42 The Kaspi problem: a dominant super app that never re-rated

39:25 The AI 1440 strategy and a sovereign-AI moat

42:31 Is telecom just structurally bad at capturing growth?

45:11 Capital allocation and the next catalyst: a JazzCash spin

49:38 The elephant in the room: LetterOne's sanctioned 45% stake

54:05 Geopolitical turmoil as a feature, not a flaw

55:24 Is that 45% block actually an opportunity?

57:09 Founder DNA, CEO Kaan Terzioglu, and the spin-off playbook

1:01:56 Wrap

UIG Funds (Samit Umatiya) - https://uigfunds.com

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

MSA Safety ($MSA) is the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the "canary" that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.

EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA's owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?

Team MSA's pitch deck is linked here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gv1oj18pawqrmeq7lai4j/MSA-Pershing-Square-Challenge-vYAVP.pdf?rlkey=8l5vkpkr7r26oi0k7wx5fcf0h&st=g4ow2fxo&dl=0

This episode is sponsored by Trata: trata.com. Trata is recorded, anonymized conversations between two buysiders who actually follow the same company, about an hour each, with a full transcript. When you are getting up to speed on a name, there is nothing like hearing two people who research it talk it through. Check them out at trata.com.

Chapters:

00:00 A quality compounder hiding at a market multiple

01:24 Sponsor: Trata

02:47 Meet Team MSA: EJ, Craig and Bob

05:50 Why they picked MSA: an underfollowed, simple business

07:50 What MSA is: the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety

10:24 The three segments, and why detection leads

11:51 Fixed vs portable gas detection

13:15 The subscription shift: the canary that sings to the whole worksite

16:40 The moat: durability, owned sensors and a long replacement runway

17:21 Market share, and why Blackline got taken private

21:32 Fire safety: the G1 and the mandated SCBA replacement cycle

23:38 Valuation: a double to ~$350 by 2030, and the reverse DCF

25:43 My pushback: a 20x compounder that doesn't scream alpha

27:00 Why management sandbags the connected and SCBA upside

28:46 A stock for the patient: the J-curve and the long horizon

31:47 Primary research: site visits, IR access and r/firefighting

36:18 Becoming a tech company: 40% of engineers now in software

38:10 The tier-one halo: win LA or Memphis, win the region

42:08 Capital allocation: the liability divestiture, dividends and a $500M buyback

44:13 Wrap: where to find the team and the deck

Team MSA (Columbia Business School): pitch deck linked above

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Fox's stock is down about 25% since it agreed to buy Roku for $22 billion, and the market has decided the deal is a blunder. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong. His case: Roku controls roughly 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, about 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the "front door" to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs in North America. Look under the surface and the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you account for Roku's barely-tapped ad levers and synergies.

We get into the homepage that became the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.

See Simeon's post on Fox / Roku here: https://www.accruedint.com/p/the-strait-of-roku-how-fox-seized

This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.

The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's telling you which tools actually give you an edge. I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process.

Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Chapters:

00:00 What's coming: Fox-Roku, plus Spotify, Google and Meta

01:08 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense

02:24 Guest intro: Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest

03:05 The Fox-Roku deal and why Simeon thinks it makes sense

05:30 Roku as the "Strait of Hormuz" of streaming (44% of viewing)

06:25 Why Fox has the smartest M&A team in media

07:55 Buying the "front door": ~100M connected TVs

10:03 The Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage"

13:44 The ad-sales levers hiding under the multiple

16:31 Valuation: 22x EBITDA, ~16-17x free cash flow with synergies

18:01 My pushback: Fox down 25%, winner's curse, thin synergies

19:35 The real risk of staying pure-play (Viacom, Paramount)

24:51 Rebundling and why everyone's partnered up by 2028

26:08 Is Fox+Roku actually better, or could anyone have bought this?

28:01 Cord-cutting, YouTube TV, and the Disney bloody nose

32:07 The Fox bet Simeon likes most: Tubi

38:30 Why now? The 50% streaming inflection and a shrinking buyer pool

42:21 Does AI slop break or boost the distribution thesis?

48:06 The gotcha: bullish Roku, bearish Spotify (the Pokemon theory of media)

52:22 Google and Meta as "true value stocks"

56:55 The complexity discount, Meta's enterprise tools, and founder control

59:13 Wrap and where to find Accrued Interest

Simeon McMillan / Accrued Interest: https://accruedinterest.substack.com

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.

This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.

Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Chapters:

00:00 What's on the menu this month

02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense

03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic)

09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG)

11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier

13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem

16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX)

20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations

21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing)

25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie

28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter

32:02 My three-year rule

32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook

35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet

37:36 Wrap

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.

This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.

The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?

I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.

Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Chapters:

00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading

02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book

08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples

13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you

17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation

22:00 The "buybacks kill liquidity" myth

25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business

31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat

36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser

38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable

40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks

46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop

52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers

56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses

01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption

01:05:38 Closing

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.

This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD

Chapters:

0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup

1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar

2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management

3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory

7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6

9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO

13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12

15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies

18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks

24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside

29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case

33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield

35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO

39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?

41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?

43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?

45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day

47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number

50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.

This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)

01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors

02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns

03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes

06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq

10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq

14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash

16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case

24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates

28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database

33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?

38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $100

40:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew

45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do

47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks

54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale

57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff

59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle

01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang

01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel

01:12:10 Wrap

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.

Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0

This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.com

Chapters:

00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar

01:00 Sponsor: Trata

02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)

05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel

09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock

11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp

15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix

16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines

22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this

24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip

29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint

33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID

34:21 The air-distribution network effect

35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS

39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition

43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math

45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing

49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary

51:02 Closing thoughts

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/