Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).

disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVN

Kyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search

[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures

[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today

[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap

[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel

[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park

[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth

[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem

[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement

[00:23:22] The cash adjustment

[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue

[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks

[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA

[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat

[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No

[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands

[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt

[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands

[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution

[00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options

[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?

[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching

[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrials

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis

01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season

04:49 Rich's bull case for $LBTYK

07:46 Andrew on management credibility

09:05 Why a spin can unlock value

11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?

15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path

17:14 Operational deterioration risk

19:52 Ziggo's subscriber losses

24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record

27:46 The Liberty Global board problem

31:22 The growth investment portfolio

32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio

36:43 Formula E and venture exposure

38:35 The empire-building risk

40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring

42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look

43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts

46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas

48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation

51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition target

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

Stock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.com

Legal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.

____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview

[00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained

[00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff

[00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate

[00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion

[00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage

[00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns

[00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks

[00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation

[00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed

[00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact

[00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised

[00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues

[00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst

[00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty

[00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed

[00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks

[00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption

[00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations

[00:46:55] Criticism of board incentives

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chad Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chad outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.

____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and Chad Garcia returns

[00:04:07] LandBridge overview and investment thesis

[00:05:26] History of land royalty businesses

[00:08:57] TPL business model breakdown

[00:13:21] LandBridge business and revenue streams

[00:16:11] Valuation comparison versus TPL

[00:17:21] Market skepticism and short thesis

[00:20:59] Incremental pore space growth potential

[00:24:27] Sponsor ownership and insider alignment

[00:26:50] Structure and related party concerns

[00:29:12] Acquisition strategy and value creation

[00:31:30] Strategic land positioning explained

[00:36:01] Competitive advantages in pore space

[00:39:37] Data center opportunity in Permian

[00:43:38] Challenges to data center deployment

[00:46:42] Valuation framework and growth outlook

[00:48:36] LandBridge versus WaterBridge comparison

[00:49:31] Secure Energy acquisition overview

[00:51:06] Waste thesis validation discussion

[00:55:35] Reaction to acquisition valuation

[00:58:16] Market education still ongoing

[01:01:12] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the "SaaSpocalypse". Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.

Marcelo's memos on software

Memo 1: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software

Memo 2: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software-part-ii

_________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and SaaS apocalypse topic

[00:02:24] Disclaimer and setup discussion

[00:03:26] SaaS selloff and market reaction

[00:07:58] AI disruption concerns raised

[00:10:09] Valuation compression and risk pricing

[00:14:24] Salesforce adoption timing shifts

[00:16:09] Incumbents’ advantage and feedback loops

[00:20:57] Headless software and interface changes

[00:22:29] Backend value versus frontend control

[00:27:02] Historical analogy with Slack usage

[00:29:22] Insider buying skepticism discussion

[00:34:36] Power law dynamics in SaaS

[00:35:53] Company earnings and AI impact

[00:36:36] Adobe Lightroom AI example

[00:40:11] Bloomberg replacement with AI tools

[00:42:25] AI tooling limitations and costs

[00:46:02] Bugs and reliability challenges

[00:47:24] Preferred SaaS companies discussed

[00:51:28] Stock compensation and dilution concerns

[00:55:59] AI productivity and hiring dynamics

[00:56:27] Opposing view on engineer demand

[00:59:16] AI increasing work intensity

[01:00:23] Enterprise software reliability moat

[01:04:49] AI as infrastructure layer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.

You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here

___________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview

[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus

[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained

[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics

[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior

[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion

[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure

[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths

[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk

[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias

[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share

[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior

[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data

[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion

[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation

[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small

[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure

[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations

[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets

[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns

[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes

[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues

[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift

[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis

[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case

[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets

[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability

[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets

[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation

[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance

[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvement

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.

Check out fiscal.ai here: fiscal.ai/?via=yav

______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and monthly ramblings

[00:01:02] Call for ratings and subscriptions

[00:01:37] Sponsor discussion and product usage

[00:02:40] Overview of April discussion topics

[00:04:35] SaaS selloff and valuation concerns

[00:07:10] AI impact on SaaS demand

[00:08:03] Software terminal value concerns

[00:08:54] SaaS as difficult investment category

[00:10:16] Importance of differentiated investment edge

[00:12:09] AI risks to investing careers

[00:13:32] Idea of hedging AI exposure

[00:14:29] Meta stock option implications

[00:15:54] Rationale for big tech hedges

[00:17:18] Thoughts on leap options strategy

[00:18:33] Pattern recognition in investing

[00:20:09] When pattern recognition becomes harmful

[00:21:35] Balancing experience versus laziness

[00:22:21] AI and pattern recognition limitations

[00:23:33] Market adaptation to investor behavior

[00:25:08] Potential AI investing weaknesses

[00:26:48] Using AI tools in research

[00:28:36] Emotional challenges in investing

[00:29:18] Missed Avis investment opportunity

[00:30:24] Frustration from missed gains

[00:31:08] Balancing emotions and discipline

[00:32:28] Closing remarks and sign-off

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/