With regime change brewing in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, and the Russian war of attrition still marching on, Cold War déjà vu shapes our understanding of what happens when regimes do fall and offers a hopeful conclusion. Former Soviet states that have joined the EU have experienced an average tenfold increase in GDP since 1990, while Russia and its non-EU neighbors have grown only fourfold. Like the stark contrast of the Berlin Wall, if Ukraine is free to continue to prosper economically, people in Russia’s border regions will begin to work out that the problem isn’t NATO, the problem isn’t ideology, the problem is the failure of the system in Russia to deliver. And in addition to the huge costs of the war already waged, that’s something Putin cannot afford. So, will Putin try to wait it out? What choices does he have to avoid failure? We asked an investment banker for his theory and the numbers are enlightening…

Michael Tory is a co-founder and Chairman of the financial advisory firm Ondra Partners. Tory is also an outspoken advocate for and supports several NGO efforts in Ukraine. Previously, he served as head of UK investment banking for Lehman Brothers Inc. and has been a Senior UK investment banker of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Michael previously served as Morgan Stanley’s head of investment banking in the UK and worked in their New York office for over a decade. Tory is also principal of Turning the Page, which develops and publishes ideas for rebuilding the UK’s domestic capital markets and savings systems.

Read the transcript here.

Subscribe to our Substack here.

The so-called “pro-Israel lobby” in Washington, D.C., has long been a target for antisemites and for fringe voices on both sides of the aisle. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, support for Israel in the United States is not a predominantly Jewish cause. Once a Democratic hallmark, its strongest base today is Evangelical Christians, whose theology and values profoundly shape their political advocacy for the Jewish people and their homeland. Yet antisemitism and hostility toward Israel persist, with October 7th exposing eroded support across the political spectrum. What ideology drives these attitudes? How can the generational divide over Israel be bridged? And what do these trends reveal about America’s values?

Ralph Reed is the founder and chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition and is the chairman and CEO of Century Strategies, a public relations and public affairs firm. Prior to founding the Faith & Freedom Coalition, Ralph served as Executive Director of the Christian Coalition where he built one of the most effective public policy organizations. Reed also served as a senior advisor to the 2000 and 2004 Bush-Cheney presidential campaigns and was chairman of the Southeast Region for Bush-Cheney 2004. As chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, he helped elect the first Republican Governor and third U.S. Senator since Reconstruction. Reed has worked on seven presidential campaigns and has advised 88 campaigns for U.S. Senate, Governor, and Congress across 24 states. He is the best-selling author and editor of seven books, including his latest novel, Awakening.

Read the transcript here.

Subscribe to our Substack here.

The world is watching as protests rage across Iran amid nationwide internet blackouts, state-sponsored propaganda, and lethal security force crackdowns. Despite reports suggesting that hundreds, possibly thousands, have been killed at the time of this writing, Iranians are taking their future in their hands with extraordinary courage. For Tehran, what makes this wave of unrest different from those before it? Should civil war breakout, will we finally see a free Iran? Will President Trump enforce the red line he has drawn for the regime, and if so, what military options exist without deploying boots on the ground? Will President Trump ignore the eleventh-hour, desperate promises of diplomacy from Islamist leaders? He’ll need to if he intends to continue his administration’s legacy of freedom.

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also currently serves as director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.

Read the transcript here.

Subscribe to our Substack here.