On 11 January 2026, something quiet happened.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had run for 1,418 days. Exactly the same length as the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany, from 22 June 1941 to Victory Day on 9 May 1945. In those days, the Red Army fought from inside its own borders to the gates of Berlin. The Russian army today has captured roughly 20% of Ukraine, and still can’t take the whole Donbas.

Now the war in Ukraine became Russia’s longest war since the Great Patriotic War. By the time Tom Tugendhat and James Glancy sat down to record this week’s Warzones, the count was past 1,540 days and still rising.

This week on Warzones, we walk through what that means:

- Russia has now lost more soldiers in Ukraine (~325,000 KIA) than in every post-WW2 conflict combined, by an order of magnitude.

- Q1 2026 was Russia’s first officially recorded economic contraction of the war.

- Ukrainian deep-strike drones have knocked ~43% of Russian fuel production offline.

- April 2026 was the first month Russia recorded a net territorial loss since Ukraine’s Kursk incursion of August 2024.

- Ukraine has gone from a tired post-Soviet economy in 2021 to the most high-tech state in Europe in 2026.

- After the denial of Starlink to Russian force, Ukraine has retaken hundreds of kilometres of territory.

“He would be the first Russian leader who has tried to take Kyiv and failed. The big changes in Russian history always come after defeats — 1905, 1917, 1989. This may be the next one.” TOM TUGENDHAT

James Glancy & Tom Tugendhat

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After today's bombshell intervention by former Labour Defence Minister Lord Robertson, Tom and James discuss Britain’s defence crisis and Labour’s prioritisation of massive welfare spending over investment in Britain’s under-resourced Armed Forces.

Meanwhile Trump announced the US will close the Straits of Hormuz until Iran comes to the negotiating table. Now approaching it's 7th week, Iran has shown few signs of conceding to America's demands to cease it's nuclear missile programme. Despite the blockade, stock markets rallied today on rumours that JD Vance is being re-deployed to Pakistan to finalise a peace deal.

This is certainly not ART OF THE DEAL territory!

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A court has overturned a ban on people living on the outer Chagos Islands. This now jeopardises Keir Starmer’s unpopular Treaty to surrender the Chagos islands to Mauritius, which in turn forces the Ministry of Defence to pay up to £48billion to lease the base at Diego Garcia back on behalf of the American military.

In February, Chagossians, landed on Ile Du Coin, an uninhabited outer island which is 135 south of Diego Garcia. The audacious operation was planned by former special forces officer and Conservative MP Adam Holloway. They were ordered to leave by the British Government, and four members of the group took legal action against the commissioner of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT).

It was argued that a 2004 law by the Labour Government, removing the right of Chagossians to enter and remain on the outer islands was unlawful. In a ruling on Tuesday, the BIOT Supreme Court quashed the rule and the commissioner’s order for the Chagossians to leave. The forced removal of the Chagossian people from the Chagos Archipelago between 1965 and 1973 is widely described by international bodies and human rights organisations as a "crime against humanity" and an "appalling colonial crime."

Lawyer James Tumbridge who has represented the Chagossian Government (in exile) who are currently back on the Chagos islands, joins Tom Tugendhat and James Glancy on Outpost to discuss today’s Court verdict.

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The Iran war is reshaping the global economy and international relations in real time. As the conflict escalates, oil prices are surging and global markets are under pressure. While much of the world faces economic strain, Russia could benefit a relief in oil sanctions and a bigger seat at the table, especially as uncertainty grows around Donald Trump’s…

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For the first time in centuries, Britain does not have a single frigate or destroyer in either the Gulf or the Mediterranean. The Royal Navy is now weaker than anytime in history, down to just 13 Frigates and Destroyers. When Iran attacked RAF Akrotiri in Cypress with Shaheed drones, the Navy’s only available two Destroyers were sat in Portsmouth, unabl…

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Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced that the next phase of the American -Israeli aerial bombardment is commencing, after the Iranian air defences, ballistic missiles and Navy have been neurtralised. Now the question turns to what happens after more than 50 senior members of the Iranian Regime, including Ayatollah Khamenei, have been killed by strikes. Ali, James and Tom discuss these key questions on the next phase of the war;

Who is left from the IRGC to negotiate with?

What could a settlement look like?

Will the Iranian people rise up and could there be inter-tribal conflict?

How did Keir Starmer and Britain get it so wrong?

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