The rate cut thesis has been wrong — repeatedly and expensively — for longer than most investors budgeted for. In this episode, Louis walks through how to underwrite a deal in two scenarios: one where rates stay flat for the duration of your hold, and one where cuts arrive later than your model assumed. Using a 20-unit value-add acquisition as a working example, the episode breaks down the math on bridge financing, stabilized NOI, permanent loan sizing, and DSCR at the refinance — the metric that actually determines whether a deal survives when your assumptions don't hold.

You'll see exactly how many rate cuts it takes to make a marginal deal work, and what that number tells you about whether you're investing or speculating. Covered in this episode:

• Why burying a rate-cut assumption in your base case is the most common underwriting mistake operators make today
• How to build a flat-rate refinance model and use DSCR as your primary underwriting gate
• The three levers — purchase price, capital structure, and operating assumptions — and what each one actually moves
• How to stress-test occupancy and NOI alongside rate scenarios
• Bridge loan extension risk: what triggers to understand before you close
• Why a deal that cashflows on IO is not the same as a deal that works
• Plus a historical fun fact about the 30-year fixed rate that reframes what "normal" actually looks like over the past 50 years. This episode is for operators who want to underwrite the deal they have — not the deal they're hoping for.

Beacon Hill Property Advisors: https://bhpropertyadvisors.com/