The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen

03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions

06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals

08:06 - Davos as a macro...

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series

01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing

06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk

09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors

12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity

19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation

22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold

29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models

35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability

44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives

51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty

59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication

01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia

01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead

Copyright © 2025 – CMC

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Ian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar

00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer

01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change

04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking

06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export

09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem

12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset

14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”

18:32...