Can Europe defend itself without the United States? The uncomfortable reality is that Europe’s security architecture is completely dependent on Washington—and that foundation is cracking.In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Max Bergmann (Director at CSIS and former US diplomat) about the depth of this military dependence. They break down exactly what would have to change if Washington steps back, covering the "fatal flaws" in European defense—from procurement failures and intelligence sharing to the growing risk of a prolonged war with Russia.Topics Discussed:• The Command Problem: Why Europe lacks a unified military structure.• The NATO Paradox: How the alliance entrenched US leadership in European defense.• Industrial Failure: Why increased spending isn't translating into stockpiles.• The "Euro Eyes" Problem: Europe’s reliance on US intelligence and logistics.• Future Scenarios: What happens if there is a rupture in US–EU relations?Chapters:00:00 Intro00:30 Europe, NATO, and US security dependence01:18 Post-WWII origins of Europe’s defence model05:03 Why European militaries declined after the Cold War07:02 The real source of Europe’s military dependency09:49 US troops in Europe and rapid reaction forces13:09 Can a pan-European force work?16:49 Who decides? The political control problem19:56 Why Europe stopped thinking strategically21:50 Defence procurement and industrial fragmentation27:03 Ammunition, stockpiles, and production capacity30:32 Ukraine and the war of attrition problem33:04 Intelligence, “Euro Eyes,” and hybrid warfare37:08 US–EU relations and the risk of rupture40:04 Are European leaders responding fast enough?43:20 Final thoughtsIf you’re interested in geopolitics, European security, and how power actually works, subscribe to The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus.

Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Tim Weiner joins Marcel Dirsus to discuss his book, The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century.

This episode is a deep dive into the CIA, the failures of the War on Terror, and the future of modern warfare. Weiner traces the agency’s evolution from the Cold War through 9/11, revealing how fear drove the CIA into torture, secret prisons, and paramilitary operations that reshaped America’s moral standing.

He argues that while the agency has had tactical successes—like dismantling nuclear smuggling networks and stealing Vladimir Putin’s invasion plans for Ukraine—it faces a strategic crisis.

The conversation warns of a catastrophic intelligence failure fueled by Donald Trump’s rejection of intelligence, ideological purges within the national security apparatus, and China’s surveillance-driven operations.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Vladimir Putin’s shadow war across Europe

00:20 – Introduction: Tim Weiner & The Mission

00:49 – The CIA after the Cold War and before 9/11

01:01 – Ignored warnings about Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden

02:59 – The Bush administration’s obsession with Saddam Hussein

03:29 – Iraq, neoconservatives, and the democracy delusion

04:20 – How 9/11 transformed the CIA

04:49 – Fear, raw intelligence, and the road to war

06:36 – Torture, black sites, and “enhanced interrogation”

07:17 – How the CIA justified torture

09:26 – Did torture actually work?

09:41 – The A.Q. Khan nuclear smuggling operation

11:26 – Pakistan, the ISI, and playing both sides

12:47 – The CIA’s lost focus on Russia and China

13:14 – Russia, political warfare, and the 2016 election

15:17 – Stealing Putin’s Ukraine invasion plans

17:39 – CIA support for Ukraine before and after the invasion

18:02 – Why subscribing helps the podcast

18:15 – How the CIA rebuilt Ukraine’s intelligence services

20:18 – Trump, Putin, and spheres of influence

21:11 – Authoritarianism and the logic of force

22:20 – Trump vs. intelligence agencies

23:05 – Ideological purges inside the CIA

25:35 – China’s intelligence services and surveillance strategy

27:45 – CIA successes—and failures—against China

29:04 – What CIA officers are really like

31:38 – Democracy, dictatorship, and a personal warning

31:49 – Closing remarks

About The Next Best:

Deep dives into geopolitics, international relations, and history with political scientist Marcel Dirsus. If you found this conversation valuable, please subscribe and leave a comment.

The Baltic region is Europe's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. From the Suwałki Gap to the stationing of German combat troops in Lithuania, we explore the geopolitical stakes of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.

Political scientist Marcel Dirsus speaks with Oliver Moody, Berlin correspondent for The Times, to analyze the strategic vulnerability of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.

00:00 Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe

00:31 Why the Baltic Region Is Europe’s Geopolitical Flashpoint

01:00 Baltic: NATO, Russia, and Europe’s Future

01:24 Baltic States History: From Empire to Independence

03:07 How Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Broke from the USSR

04:40 Why the West Didn’t Support Baltic Independence in 1990

05:36 Why the Baltic States Chose NATO and the EU

06:11 NATO Expansion and Western Fears of Provoking Russia

07:22 Why Defending the Baltic States Is So Difficult

09:39 What Europe Can Learn from the Baltic States

10:03 Estonia’s Digital State and Economic Transformation

12:14 Why Copy-Paste Policy Fails in Europe

13:40 How Russia’s Ukraine War Changed Northern Europe

15:47 Baltic Power and Influence Inside the European Union

17:56 Poland, Power Politics, and Europe’s Strategic Limits

19:57 Why Russia Didn’t Stop Finland and Sweden Joining NATO

21:56 Is Europe Already in a Hybrid War with Russia?

22:17 Russian Sabotage, Espionage, and Hybrid Attacks Explained

23:26 Could Russia Invade Estonia? NATO’s Worst-Case Scenario

23:47 Why Subscribing Helps the Podcast

24:04 How a NATO–Russia War Could Begin

26:05 NATO Troops in the Baltics: Tripwire or Real Deterrence?

28:05 Finland’s Total Defense Model Explained

29:53 Why Europe Is Unprepared for Civil Defense

32:25 Germany’s Rearmament and Europe’s Historic Fears

34:39 What US Politics Mean for Europe’s Security

36:30 Could NATO Collapse Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

37:38 If America Leaves Europe: Unity or Fragmentation?

39:32 Why the Baltic Region Shapes Europe’s Future

41:08 Understanding Russia Through an Exiled Russian Writer

42:51 Outro

In this episode:

• The strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap

• Why Germany is deploying a combat brigade to Lithuania

• Hybrid Warfare & Grey Zone Tactics: How Russia destabilizes the region

• The reality of the Russian threat to the Baltic states

• NATO's defense strategy in Northeastern Europe

• Historical context: The Soviet occupation and its legacy

• What we can learn from Poland, Finland and Estonia

About the Guest:

Oliver Moody is the Berlin correspondent for The Times, covering German and Northern European politics. His reporting often focuses on security policy and the shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe.Subscribe for more serious conversations on geopolitics & history.

My guest

Book: https://www.johnmurraypress.co.uk/titles/oliver-moody/baltic/9781399814270/

Twitter: https://x.com/olivernmoody

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com