Why do so many billion-dollar projects fail—and how can leaders make better decisions before it’s too late? 🧭

Global mega-project executive Akin Oni joins Orion to unpack decision-making, people, risk, and leadership at the highest stakes.

In this episode of The Major Project Podcast, Orion sits down with Akin Oni—global mega-project executive, CEO & Managing Partner of FECs Group, and author of three upcoming books on leadership and capital delivery. With more than three decades of experience leading oil & gas, LNG, mining, refining, infrastructure, and M&A-driven projects across six continents, Akin brings a rare blend of technical rigor and human insight to the conversation.

Akin reframes what a mega-project truly is—not just something over a billion dollars, but a human undertaking so large it shapes economies, communities, and national identity. Drawing on global research and lived experience, he explains why only a tiny fraction of mega-projects succeed and identifies three root causes behind most failures: rushing the beginning, underestimating uncertainty, and forgetting that projects are built by people—not spreadsheets.

From there, the conversation dives deep into decision-making before Final Investment Decision (FID)—the phase where most projects quietly fail long before execution begins. Akin explains why the real question is not “Can we build it?” but “Should we build it now, here, with these assumptions and this risk?” He walks through what rigorous project evaluation really requires: market readiness, supply chains, talent availability, regulatory permission, geopolitics, and the true cost of capital.

Akin also unpacks M&A, A&D, and transactions, clarifying the difference between financial deals and the harder work of integration and separation—where culture, systems, and people ultimately determine success. He shares board-level insights on why independent peer reviews matter, how execution bias creeps into decision-making, and why “too big to start” projects often need to be scaled down before they can succeed.

Leadership is a constant thread throughout the episode. Akin introduces his practical frameworks—like Listen → Learn → Lead, and having the right people, in the right number, at the right time—and challenges traditional project-management thinking that focuses only on scope, schedule, and cost. True project success, he argues, is project management success plus product success.

The discussion closes with forward-looking insights on AI in mega-projects, where Akin outlines three real impacts already underway: speed, insight, and execution. AI won’t replace people, he says—but it will replace teams that refuse to use it. He also shares candid advice on career growth, mentorship, global mobility, family life, and why character must rise above résumé in high-stakes leadership roles.

• Why 65–98% of mega-projects miss cost, schedule, or value targets—and how to change that
• The three biggest causes of mega-project failure (and how leaders can counter them)
• How to evaluate whether a project should proceed—not just whether it can
• What boards and executives should ask before approving FID
• The difference between M&A, A&D, and transactions—and why integration matters more than spreadsheets
• A practical framework for people-first project leadership
• Why “license to operate” can stop a project faster than any contractor issue
• How AI is reshaping due diligence, planning, and execution
• Career advice for project professionals: curiosity, steadiness, relationships, and lifelong learning

Why do so many billion-dollar projects go off the rails—and what can you do before execution to prevent it? 🧭

Front-end planning expert Roger Farish joins Orion to unpack FEL, stage-gates, risk, and governance—and why the biggest influence on a project’s success happens long before you break ground.

In this episode of The Major Project Podcast, Orion sits down with Roger Farish, a front-end planning specialist with 25+ years of experience at Bechtel, Fluor, Linde Engineering, and Kiewit, delivering major capital projects in LNG, refining, petrochemicals, renewables, power, and mining. riverside_the_major project pod…

Roger walks through his path from mechanical engineer and field engineer to portfolio leader and, now, consultant—highlighting how each role reinforced one core lesson: the front end is where projects are won or lost.

He breaks down what Front-End Planning (FEP) actually is—FEL stages, stage-gate processes, “concept / select / define / feed / pre-feed”—and how best-practice frameworks from CII and AACE help owners make disciplined, data-informed investment decisions instead of “gut-feel” commitments. riverside_the_major project pod…

Roger explains tools like the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI), how it measures scope maturity, and why facilitation matters when project managers are (understandably) biased to push scores down so their projects clear the next gate. He shares stories of uncovering gaps where deliverables were claimed “complete” but hadn’t even started, and how structured reviews surface misalignment before billions are committed. riverside_the_major project pod…

From there, they dive into:

• “Too big to start” mega-projects that are so large almost no EPC is willing to take on the risk—and how Roger helped one client shrink a project so at least two competitive bids were realistically possible.
• Using historical data to separate systemic risk from project-specific risk, even when owner data is messy or inconsistent—and why there’s always something to learn if you dig deep enough.
• The reality of execution bias, where projects gather political and emotional momentum that makes it hard to pause, re-scope, or walk away—even when the signals are flashing red. riverside_the_major project pod…

Roger also shares his views on AI in major projects: why a lot of “AI” tools today are really rules engines with new branding, why execution-phase use cases will likely mature faster than front-end ones, and how he’s already using AI as a teaching and mentoring assistant for younger engineers.

Finally, he offers career advice for students and mid-career professionals who want to move into front-end planning—covering the value of cross-discipline experience (field, startup, process, economics), and why a mix of engineering, finance, statistics, and project controls is such a powerful foundation. He closes by describing how his firm now supports owners, EPCs, and OEMs on estimating, scope definition, risk, governance, and FEL management across the front end of their capital portfolios. riverside_the_major project pod…

• What Front-End Planning (FEP) actually is—and how FEL stages and stage gates fit together
• Why early decisions shape cost, schedule, and risk outcomes far more than tweaks during execution
• How tools like PDRI measure scope maturity and correlate with better cost and schedule performance
• How to recognize and counter execution bias and “too big to start” mega-projects
• Ways to use historical data to separate systemic risk from project-specific risk
• Where AI is (and isn’t yet) useful in front-end planning and mentoring
• How organizational culture and change management affect governance adoption
• Practical career paths into FEP—from field roles to process engineering to project controls
• Key best-practice resources: CII, AACE, and IPA’s Capital Projects

What if finishing a billion-dollar project on time and on budget is actually a choice? 📦

Global AWP pioneer Geoff Ryan joins Orion to break down Advanced Work Packaging, data center megaprojects, and the future of construction productivity.

In this episode of The Major Project Podcast, Orion sits down with Geoff Ryan—worldwide authority on Advanced Work Packaging (AWP), founder of Insight-AWP, and author of Even More Schedule for Sale. With decades of experience on oil & gas, industrial, and global mega-projects, Geoff explains how AWP became one of the most powerful productivity drivers in modern construction.

Geoff shares how early research into failing projects in Alberta uncovered a simple truth: foremen who receive complete, constraint-free work packages deliver predictable, high-quality output—and those who don’t, can’t. This insight launched the first “WorkFace Planning” model, eventually evolving (with CII’s backing) into the full AWP framework used worldwide today.

He breaks down the fundamentals of Installation Work Packages (IWPs), the pre-work conditions that make them executable, and why even late-phase projects can still recover significant productivity by implementing packages correctly. Geoff also reveals findings from 70 mega-project audits, showing that improving AWP alignment can increase field productivity by 22%, reducing total project cost by up to 10%—a massive impact on billion-dollar programs.

The conversation then shifts to data centers, where 2,700+ U.S. mega-facilities are expected by 2030. Geoff outlines why this build-out is unlike anything the industry has seen: supply-chain scarcity, engineering agility, shifting cooling technologies, and the urgent need for skilled high-voltage labor. He discusses the PEPSI model (Procurement → Engineering → Planning → Construction → Initiation) and why traditional EPC silos cannot keep up with today’s pace or volatility.

From AI-driven procurement, augmented reality on site, and future regulation to the coming shortage of project managers and electricians, Geoff paints a picture of an industry on the edge of its next great leap—and the role AWP will play in shaping it.

• Why AWP was created and how it evolved from WorkFace Planning
• How Installation Work Packages (IWPs) improve predictability, safety, and productivity
• Why optimizing engineering/procurement in isolation harms construction—and how AWP fixes it
• How AWP audits correlate project alignment to 22% higher tool-time
• Why data centers require a PEPSI (procurement-first) model—not traditional EPC
• The supply-chain, cooling, and talent-shortage risks facing data center megaprojects
• What “construction in heaven” means—and why sequencing must begin with field reality
• How AI, global manufacturing data, and augmented reality will re-shape execution
• Why predictable outcomes are no longer “impossible”—they’re a choice