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In this episode, Peter sits down with Vanguard's Kevin DiCiurcio to unpack how Vanguard thinks about long-term return forecasts—and why the percentiles in those tables are the part most investors misunderstand. They go behind the scenes of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM), and translate what it's really saying into practical guidance for planning and portfolio decisions.

Listen now and learn:

► How Vanguard builds and governs its capital markets model—and what it's designed to do (and not do)

► A simple way to interpret percentiles without turning them into predictions

► What changes when you shift from a 10-year lens to a 30-year lens

► The key portfolio implications Kevin thinks long-term investors should be paying attention to

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(00:00) Introduction

(02:16) What the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) Is—and Why Return Assumptions Matter

(04:04) How Vanguard Wants Investors to Use VCMM: Expectations, Risk Trade-Offs, and Smarter Allocation Decisions

(09:27) How Vanguard Builds the Forecasts—and the Capital Market Assumption Approaches They Didn't Rely on Alone

(15:08) How to Read Percentiles, 10-Year vs 30-Year Forecasts, and What Vanguard Likes Most Right Now

(29:21) The Performance-Chasing Problem: When Investors Suddenly Want More International Again

(30:05) AI, Mega Trends, and Three Scenarios: Why Economic Upside Doesn't Guarantee Stock Market Upside

(34:31) Geopolitics and Markets: Why It's Not a Direct Forecast Input, But Still Shapes Long-Term Premia

(37:48) The 2026 Signposts: What Would Actually Change Vanguard's Conviction and Move the Outlook

(39:32) What Vanguard's Capital Markets Research Team Is Focused on Next—and Why Ranges Beat False Precision

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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Ever wondered where your retirement plan's "probability of success" really comes from? In this episode, Peter pulls back the curtain on the assumptions inside Monte Carlo analysis—and explains why Plancorp anchors its projections to long-term base rates instead of short-term forecasts.

Listen now and learn:

► The three numbers that quietly drive most Monte Carlo projections

► The four common ways advisors choose capital market assumptions—and why they differ

► Why "more sophisticated" assumptions can sometimes create more error, not less

► How to think about your plan's probability of success without getting lost in the math

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

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Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me for a wide-ranging conversation about what actually matters for long-term investors heading into 2026. We get past the headline forecasts and into how a seasoned strategist interprets markets in real time—without falling into the traps that trip up most investors.

Listen now and learn:

► Why "forecasts" can be useful even when you're not making price targets—and how to use them the right way

► A clearer way to think about what really drove market returns in 2025 (and what many investors missed)

► What to pay attention to with the Fed in 2026, and what's mostly just noise

► A grounded framework for thinking about the U.S. dollar, national debt, and the long-term investor's edge

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(03:00) Why Schwab Won't Do Year-End Targets

(08:23) How Liz Ann Builds an Outlook: cycles, quadrants, and "better or worse" vs. "good or bad"
(13:33) 2025's Biggest Investor Lesson
(16:48) The Magnificent Seven Misconception: contribution ≠ performance
(21:05) The 2026 Outlook
(26:09) The Federal Reserve, Rate Cuts, and a New Fed Chair: why the "C" in FOMC matters
(31:39) The US Dollar and Reserve Currency Fears: "there's no replacement for it"
(35:19) US National Debt: not a default story, but a long-term "wet blanket on growth"

(43:02) Long-Term Investing vs. Gambling: owning vs. hoping, and why "get in/get out" isn't a strategy

(47:22) How Liz Ann Sonders Invests Her Own Money
(50:16) What's Different Now: post-COVID sentiment, the retail trader, and why psychology got harder
(52:55) Where to Find Liz Ann's Research

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.