Episodes

  • How Falling Labor Force Participation Reshapes Fed Policy

    How Falling Labor Force Participation Reshapes Fed Policy
    Jul 4 2026
    In Episode 93 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the Fed's growing concern over falling labor force participation, which hit a 50-year low in June 2026. They discuss why the drop is structural rather than cyclical, how it complicates the Phillips curve, and what it means for the terminal rate. Drawing on the latest jobs report showing only 57,000 payrolls added, they explore whether the Fed's reaction function is shifting away from a pure inflation target toward a dual mandate that gives more weight to labor supply. The episode also covers the puzzling divergence between the headline unemployment rate (4.2%) and the participation rate, and what that signals about the economy's underlying capacity constraints. #FederalReserve #LaborForceParticipation #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #JobsReport #June2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #InterestRates #Inflation #PhillipsCurve #TerminalRate #LaborMarket #StructuralUnemployment #ParticipationRate #CentralBanking Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • Why the Fed Cant Ignore Falling Labor Force Participation

    Why the Fed Cant Ignore Falling Labor Force Participation
    Jul 4 2026
    In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna tackle a puzzle that's been quietly worrying central bankers: the labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level in fifty years, outside of the pandemic era. With the June payrolls report showing just 57,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent, Lucas explains why the Fed views falling participation as a structural threat to potential GDP, not a temporary blip. He walks through how a smaller labor pool complicates the Phillips curve framework and makes it harder for the Fed to gauge whether the economy is truly at full employment. Luna pushes back on whether participation is really a monetary policy lever—arguing that it's mostly driven by demographics, disability, and early retirement—and Lucas counters with evidence that prime-age participation has also slipped, suggesting something beyond aging. They discuss why the Fed might need to hold rates steady longer to avoid overheating a shrinking labor force, and end on the implication for long-run inflation expectations. Near the close, they briefly mention how listener support on Buy Me a Coffee dot com slash fexingo keeps the show ad-free. #FederalReserve #LaborForceParticipation #MonetaryPolicy #Employment #Inflation #JuneJobsReport #Unemployment #PotentialGDP #PhillipsCurve #FOMC #Economics #InterestRates #LaborMarket #Demographics #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FederalReservePodcastWithFexingo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 mins
  • Why the Fed Cares About People Giving Up on Jobs

    Why the Fed Cares About People Giving Up on Jobs
    Jul 3 2026
    On Episode 91 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the one labor market number that might matter more than the headline payrolls miss: the labor force participation rate falling to its lowest in 50 years outside of COVID. They connect the July 2 jobs report — just 57,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.2% — to the Fed's preference cascade theory of inflation, and ask whether a shrinking workforce is giving the central bank cover to hold rates steady. Specific numbers include the participation rate drop, the Fed funds rate at 3.63%, and what the 10-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.23% signals about the market's confidence in the Fed's path. No abstract macro — just the one data point that explains why the Fed might stay on hold even as the economy softens. #FederalReserve #LaborForceParticipation #JobsReport #Inflation #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Unemployment #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #PreferenceCascade #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking #LaborMarket #FOMC #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • How a Falling Participation Rate Confuses the Fed

    How a Falling Participation Rate Confuses the Fed
    Jul 3 2026
    In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising drop in the U.S. labor force participation rate to a 50-year low outside the pandemic era, even as payrolls growth slows to just 57,000 in June. They explore how a shrinking workforce complicates the Fed's reading of the jobs market: fewer people looking for work can mask underlying weakness and muddy the inflation picture. Lucas explains why the participation rate matters more than the headline unemployment number right now, and why the Fed might view this trend with concern despite a 4.2% jobless rate. They also touch on the implications for wage pressure and the Fed's next rate decision. No hot takes — just a clear look at a data point the market is underestimating. #FederalReserve #LaborForceParticipation #JobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #WageGrowth #Unemployment #JuneJobs #FOMC #CentralBank #Economics #FedPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LaborMarket #ParticipationRate #RateDecision #DataDependence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 mins
  • How the June Jobs Miss Changes the Feds Rate Path

    How the June Jobs Miss Changes the Feds Rate Path
    Jul 2 2026
    The June 2026 jobs report landed with just 57,000 new payrolls — well below expectations — while the labor force participation rate hit a 50-year low outside the pandemic era. Lucas and Luna unpack what this miss means for the Federal Reserve's rate strategy as it heads into the July FOMC meeting. They examine why the unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent despite weak hiring, how falling participation complicates the Fed's full-employment mandate, and whether this data shifts the odds of a rate cut later this year. With the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and inflation still above target, the hosts discuss a scenario where the Fed might prioritize labor market weakness over lingering price pressures. Episode 89 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. #FederalReserve #JuneJobsReport #PayrollsMiss #LaborForceParticipation #UnemploymentRate #RateCut #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FedPivot #JobsData #EmploymentTrends #InflationVsEmployment #JulyFOMC #LaborMarket #FedRatePath #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins
  • What the Feds Rate Pause Means for Small-Cap Stocks

    What the Feds Rate Pause Means for Small-Cap Stocks
    Jul 2 2026
    The Fed has held rates steady since January, and the Russell 2000 is barely budging. Lucas and Luna dig into why small-cap stocks are stuck despite a resilient economy and what the yield curve's persistent inversion tells us about credit conditions for smaller firms. They look at the recent ADP miss—98,000 private payrolls added in June, below expectations—and what it signals about the labor market's uneven health. Plus, they explore the connection between the Fed's rate pause and the growing divergence between large-cap and small-cap performance, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% in the last five days while the Russell is flat. A tight, data-driven conversation about monetary policy's uneven transmission. #FederalReservePodcastWithFexingo #Fed #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #YieldCurve #ADP #LaborMarket #Inflation #CorePCE #S&P500 #BondMarket #CreditConditions #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RatePause Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • What the ADP Miss Number Means for the Fed

    What the ADP Miss Number Means for the Fed
    Jul 1 2026
    The latest ADP report showed private payrolls added just 98,000 in June, well below expectations. Lucas and Luna examine what this 'miss' signals to the Federal Reserve about the labor market's trajectory, and how it fits with other data like core PCE at 3.3 percent and the ten-year yield at 4.47 percent. They discuss whether the Fed is more likely to cut rates this year or hold steady, and why job growth deceleration might not be a red flag yet. Specific focus on the service sector's role in the slowdown and the Fed's dual mandate trade-off between inflation and employment. The conversation stays grounded in current numbers and avoids broad macro generalities. #ADP #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Payrolls #JobGrowth #RateCuts #MonetaryPolicy #CorePCE #Inflation #TenYearYield #DualMandate #ServiceSector #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #FOMC #Employment #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • How the Fed Interprets Job Satisfaction Surveys

    How the Fed Interprets Job Satisfaction Surveys
    Jul 1 2026
    In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to job satisfaction data. With a new survey showing that more than half of U.S. workers are 'truly satisfied' with their jobs—the highest level in decades—Lucas unpacks how the Fed uses this kind of sentiment data to gauge labor market tightness and wage pressure. They discuss the relationship between job satisfaction, quits rates, and wage growth, and consider why a satisfied workforce might complicate the Fed's inflation fight. Lucas also links the data to the surprisingly strong Core PCE reading of 3.4 percent and the flat Fed Funds rate of 3.63 percent. A must-listen for anyone following the Fed's path forward. #FederalReserve #JobSatisfaction #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #WageInflation #CorePCE #FedFundsRate #SurveyData #WorkerSentiment #QuitsRate #PhillipsCurve #EconomicIndicators #BusinessCycle #LucasAndLuna #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins