The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in June marked Kevin Warsh's first as Chair—and it came with a clear shift in focus. Inflation dominated the press conference, while the labor market received minimal attention.

The changes went beyond tone. Forward guidance was removed from the Statement, the easing bias is gone, and half of FOMC participants view at least one interest rate hike as appropriate in 2026—up from a majority expecting cuts just three months ago.

In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:

• What Chair Warsh signaled about his approach—and how it differs from Jerome Powell's.
• Why current data supports a focus on inflation with core Personal Consumption Expenditures above 3% and the labor market holding steady.
• How the statement shifted from an easing bias to a hawkish lean since March, and what RBC expects for interest rates through 2027.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has officially started with games spanning cities across North America, drawing spectators from all over the world. But as it creates buzz, it won't distract from the headwinds still facing Canada’s economy.

In Q1, gross domestic product contracted by a small annualized 0.1% to mark a second consecutive decline. However, the contraction is marginal and narrow—not the kind of sharp, persistent, and broad-based deterioration typical of recessions in the past.

The World Cup in coming months will give Canada's economy a temporary lift. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down Canada's underlying economic trends as FIFA games gets underway.

U.S. headline inflation just posted its hottest print in nearly three years, driven by surging energy prices and sticky core inflation pressures.

At the same time, labour market data is looking solid, and growth hasn’t meaningfully slowed. We have yet to see signs of Stagflation Lite materializing, and don’t expect the oil price shock will tip the economy into a recession.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan explain:

• Whether hot US inflation is purely an energy story—or if pressures are building beneath the surface.
• Why the Fed stays put even as the labour market holds up.
• What it would take from a jobs’ perspective to trigger a recession in the U.S.—and why it’s unlikely.