In this episode of Tank Talks, Matt Cohen and John Ruffolo unpack the ripple effects of Y Combinator’s decision to exclude Canadian startups from their investment portfolio unless they’re incorporated in the U.S. or other tax-friendly jurisdictions. This move has sent shockwaves through the Canadian tech ecosystem, and Matt and John break down exactly why this matters for founders and investors alike.

The conversation explores the myth of U.S. incorporation being the golden ticket for capital-raising and the rise of a narrative that Canadian entrepreneurs must leave their home country to achieve success. Matt and John challenge this narrative head-on, providing deep insights into why Canadian tech companies can still thrive domestically and refuting the data that YC used to justify their decision.

Y Combinator Shakes Up Canadian Startups (01:09)

YC has revised its investment criteria to exclude Canadian companies unless they’re incorporated in the U.S. or certain tax havens. The duo debates the implications of this shift and how it impacts Canadian founders who are now questioning their incorporation choices.

The False Narrative of U.S. Incorporation (03:09)

John breaks down the myth that U.S.-incorporated companies raise more capital than their Canadian counterparts, calling out misleading data points used by YC’s Garry Tan to justify the shift. The conversation digs into why this narrative is misleading and what Canadian entrepreneurs can do to counter it.

Why YC’s Data Doesn’t Tell the Full Story (05:35)

John explains how some of Canada’s most successful tech companies didn’t follow the YC path and still thrived, refuting the idea that incorporation in the U.S. is always the best move for Canadian startups.

The Ripple Effect on Early-Stage Founders (06:25)

The discussion turns to the younger generation of founders who now believe they must incorporate in the U.S. to succeed, potentially setting them up for unnecessary challenges.

The Shift from PE to VC: Innovator’s Dilemma (14:07)

Matt and John shift gears to discuss private equity’s struggle with legacy enterprise software companies in the wake of AI disruption. They explore how PE firms are transforming into venture funds to keep up with market changes, creating a new kind of investment landscape.

The AI Crisis for Private Equity (15:10)

As AI-native startups disrupt traditional software models, private equity firms face extended hold periods on their investments. Matt and John explore how firms like Thoma Bravo are adjusting their strategies to deal with these changes.

CGI Partners with OpenAI: The Changing Consulting Landscape (18:54)

The episode wraps up with a discussion on CGI’s new global alliance with OpenAI. This partnership marks a major shift in the IT consulting world, with CGI aiming to integrate AI at scale. Matt and John speculate on the future of AI in enterprise consulting and what this means for legacy players like CGI.

Connect with John Ruffolo on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/joruffolo

Connect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1

Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/

In this episode of Tank Talks, Matt Cohen and John Ruffolo unpack Prime Minister Mark Carney’s China agreement and his Davos speech, calling out the collapse of the rules-based international order and pushing “middle powers” to coordinate against coercion. John and Matt agree the speech was sharp, but they hammer the real issue: Canada has to build leverage at home (resources, infrastructure, internal trade, and actual execution) or “diversifying” becomes a vibes-only strategy.

The conversation then pivots to Trump’s Greenland framework, rare earth realities, and why the real choke point is processing, not just “owning minerals.” Finally, they switch lanes into markets, covering the biggest anticipated IPOs of 2026 (SpaceX, OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe, Revolut, Canva), why liquidity could snap back for LPs, and why SPACs are creeping back as a funding path for deep tech, including General Fusion’s SPAC and the emergence of the Canadian Rocket Company as Canada tries to repatriate space talent.

Canada–China trade reset and what it actually means (02:13)

Matt tees up the January 16 China agreement and the idea of trade diversification under U.S. tariff uncertainty. John frames it as a fix for specific trade pain (not a full political pivot) and warns against treating China as a “safe alternative.”

Davos speech: “truth bombs” vs real-world action (04:11)

They break down Carney’s Davos message on coercion, great power tactics, and middle-power coalitions. John calls it “spectacular,” but both stress the gap between rhetoric and measurable outcomes.

Canada’s leverage problem: “build Canada first” (06:39)

John argues Canada can’t diversify trade if it has nothing competitive and scalable to trade. The conversation turns into a blunt call for domestic execution: resources, pipelines, and the hard stuff that moves GDP.

Matt’s frustration: Why no national address to Canadians? (08:06)

Matt goes off on the lack of direct, plainspoken communication to Canadians about what has to change, what’s coming, and what tradeoffs might be required.

Trump and Greenland: Bond markets, politics, and power (12:32)

John calls Trump’s posture performative and points to constraints that actually matter, including internal GOP pressure and market reactions (he highlights the bond market as the real “adult in the room”).

Top anticipated IPOs of 2026: the mega list (19:12)

They run through what’s being floated as the monster class of potential offerings: SpaceX, OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe, Revolut, Canva (and more speculation). The bigger point: it’s not number of IPOs, it’s dollar value and liquidity unlock.

Canada’s space bets: Canadian Rocket Company emerges (21:15)

Matt shares CRC’s emergence from stealth with $6.2M funding (all Canadian investors including BDC and Garage). Focus: repatriating SpaceX/Blue Origin talent and pushing Canada deeper into the space industrial base.

Connect with John Ruffolo on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/joruffolo

Connect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1

Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/