Episodes

  • A CFO Explains Stock Exchanges

    A CFO Explains Stock Exchanges
    Jun 4 2026
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down how stock exchanges became the operating system of modern capitalism. From ship captains raising voyage money, to the Dutch East India Company’s first tradable shares, to coffee house traders, the Buttonwood Agreement, market crashes, Robinhood, and GameStop, this is the story of how markets turned ownership into something liquid, global, and very, very human.—SPONSORS:SpendHound cuts your SaaS and AI spend by up to 30% using real pricing benchmarks across 10,000 vendors, so you always know what fair pricing looks like before your next renewal. Rated #1 on G2 in SaaS spend management, it's free forever for teams up to 1,000 employees. Sign up by June 12th and get $500 just for getting started. Go to https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comSlacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:A CFO Explains Secondarieshttps://youtu.be/pENvBuXhGukA CFO Explains the Diamond Industryhttps://youtu.be/fPrho7hvykAA CFO Explains Marketplaceshttps://youtu.be/LpbH9GpBrSY—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 The First IPO, and Why It Changed Everything2:50 Coffee, Buttonwood Trees, and the First Insider Trading Scandal6:31 The Railroads Built Your Month-End Close10:17 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph13:47 Buying Stocks on Credit, and How That Ended18:13 Merrill Lynch Goes to the Suburbs, and the Paper Almost Wins21:44 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY24:47 NASDAQ, Pets.com, and the Most Expensive Sock Puppet in History28:49 The Phone in Your Pocket Democratized Everything, For Better or Worse33:03 The Stock Market Was Never Really About Stocks36:47 Credits#RunTheNumbersPodcast #FinanceHistory #StockMarket #Investing #FinanceLeadership
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    37 mins
  • Zapier's CFO on Closing the Books in 5 Days, AI Hiring Bars, and M&A Discipline

    Zapier's CFO on Closing the Books in 5 Days, AI Hiring Bars, and M&A Discipline
    Jun 1 2026
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Ryan Roccon, CFO of Zapier, to cover AI hiring standards, automating month-end close, measuring ROI on AI spend, and why determinism still beats agents most of the time.—SPONSORS:EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound cuts your SaaS and AI spend by up to 30% using real pricing benchmarks across 10,000 vendors, so you always know what fair pricing looks like before your next renewal. Rated #1 on G2 in SaaS spend management, it's free forever for teams up to 1,000 employees. Sign up by June 12th and get $500 just for getting started. Go to https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNGuest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanroccon/Company: https://zapier.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Ryan’s First Appearancehttps://youtu.be/VIZ_RzfV78IChris Byington, Head of Data @ Superhumanhttps://youtu.be/ydH38JnWfww—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and intro2:11 Ryan's scope at Zapier3:17 Why the finance guy runs ecosystems6:19 AI is a required hire competency6:46 The four levels: unacceptable to transformative8:48 How Zapier tests for it11:50 Favorite interview question13:06 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex16:18 AI changes the hiring profile17:07 Support becomes customer-facing engineering18:44 Where AI beats deterministic Zaps21:00 80-90% of builds are deterministic22:41 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet26:00 Month end close on Zaps27:40 Time saved is a leading indicator29:53 AI token costs: COGS or investment?31:51 Performance issue or measurement issue?33:41 Partner ARR: chasing the wrong thing35:56 Build around what changes the decision37:17 The initiative sizing coach40:00 Escalate on magnitude, not certainty41:55 The 9,000 integration story44:02 M&A process and minimum model46:19 Cash vs. stock: incentive alignment48:06 CFO's role in M&A: show up early49:18 Credits
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    50 mins
  • Navan CFO Aurélien Nolf on Resource Allocation, IR, and AI in Finance

    Navan CFO Aurélien Nolf on Resource Allocation, IR, and AI in Finance
    May 28 2026
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Aurélien Nolf, CFO of Navan, to unpack how to pre-align before budgeting, how to think about portfolio construction inside a company, when to fund or kill internal bets, how IR is becoming more connected to FP&A, and where AI actually works inside finance teams.—SPONSORS:Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNGuest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aureliennolf5b716412/Company: https://navan.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and intro1:21 Welcome and guest intro3:06 100-mile ultramarathon at Lake Tahoe4:47 Resource allocation lessons from EA6:41 Bucketing bets: proven, intuition, moonshots7:43 Pre-alignment before budgeting9:58 The 70/20/10 framework10:35 Sponsors — Rillet | EY | SpendHound13:51 The common trap: chasing everything16:16 Lyft: $1B burning to $1B profitable18:11 Killing projects without crushing morale19:24 TAM as the planning foundation20:57 Navan's TAM: managed vs. unmanaged22:15 Sponsors — Brex | Aleph | RightRev25:48 Why go after the unmanaged segment28:24 Not all TAM dollars are equal29:26 How IR is evolving30:45 Why FP&A and IR belong together31:54 Metrics: disclose vs. guide34:04 Use internal metrics externally35:12 Communicating bad news to the market39:22 Earnings prep: the black book40:04 AI in finance: can't vibe code compliance41:31 Ava handles 55% of interactions43:08 AI ROI: same framework as anything else44:02 Why finance hasn't had its AI moment44:46 Lightning round44:56 Screwed up: wrong investor meeting45:23 Sunday planning ritual46:42 Advice to younger self47:29 Finance software stack48:34 Craziest expense: curtains at the hotel laundry49:17 Credits
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    50 mins
  • SpaceX Is Going Public: Here's Everything You Need to Know

    SpaceX Is Going Public: Here's Everything You Need to Know
    May 25 2026

    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down SpaceX’s S-1, unpacking what the filing reveals about Starlink, xAI, X, common control accounting, revenue, losses, CapEx, and Elon Musk’s Mars-linked compensation structure.

    —

    SPONSORS:

    RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ

    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

    EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj

    Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
    Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run

    —

    LINKS:

    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    —

    TIMESTAMPS:

    0:00 SpaceX S1 breakdown

    0:50 Elon's Mars colony comp plan

    2:03 Common control accounting: SpaceX + xAI + X

    3:04 What SpaceX actually does

    3:43 How reusable rockets work

    4:24 Launch cost curve: foundation of everything

    5:49 Launch services: $8B, 85% of global launches

    6:44 Starlink: $11.4B, 63% EBITDA margins

    7:36 xAI and X: burning $1B/month

    8:22 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY

    11:18 Colossus and orbital AI thesis

    11:41 Revenue, segments and CapEx breakdown

    14:54 RPO: $28.4B backlog

    15:18 Starlink subscribers and ARPU decline

    16:01 Target valuation: $1.5–1.75 trillion

    16:47 Starlink deep dive

    18:05 International pricing strategy

    21:38 The consolidated entity problem

    22:28 Related party section: nine pages

    22:32 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph

    26:15 Valor Equity: $20B in equipment leases

    27:05 Tesla cross-ownership and Terrafab

    28:23 R&D: $8.6B, 46% of revenue

    30:33 Starship: key risk and growth linchpin

    31:41 Red flag 1: CEO comp tied to Mars colony

    32:22 Red flag 2: Musk concentration risk

    32:49 Red flag 3: Cursor option — $10B downside

    33:36 Red flag 4: X advertising is shrinking

    34:06 IPO structure and SPCX ticker

    34:50 30% retail allocation, no lockups

    35:44 S&P 500 inclusion forces buying within 15 days

    37:54 Valuation: 60–70x forward revenue

    38:43 Peer comparison

    39:44 What you're buying at $1.5T

    40:53 CFO comp: the only sane plan in the filing

    41:25 Bitcoin on the balance sheet

    41:57 Credits
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    42 mins
  • 5 Ways CFOs Can Build a Better Sales Engine with Paul Stansik

    5 Ways CFOs Can Build a Better Sales Engine with Paul Stansik
    May 21 2026
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with ParkerGale Operating Partner Paul Stansik to break down five ways CFOs can help build a better sales engine: making the budget mean something, improving forecasting, sharpening metrics, getting involved in key RevOps moments, and building real trust with sales.—SPONSORS:Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNGuest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulstansik/Company: https://www.parkergale.com/Hello Operator: https://hellooperator.substack.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Is a weekly martini ARR? | with Dave Kellogghttps://youtu.be/Yb1lUQLJ6qw—TIMESTAMPS:All verified. Here are the timestamps:0:00 Preview and intro2:27 Parker Gale and Paul's role3:52 Topic: how CFOs build a better sales engine6:21 1: Make the budget mean something8:11 Budget segmentation and cleaving the business10:54 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet14:08 2: Help emphasize forecasting17:23 Forecasting as non-threatening co-construction19:37 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex23:06 3: Lend a hand with data and metrics25:32 Walking sales through NDR levers27:16 Metrics tied to exit readiness28:00 4: Get involved in a few RevOps spots29:04 Pricing, proposals, and quoting31:22 Kill your SKUs32:51 Selling with certainty: quote formatting34:26 CFO letter for enterprise deals37:37 5: Build a great relationship with sales37:59 You can't fix a secret39:23 EQ over IQ for finance leaders40:41 Recap: all five tips42:11 Credits#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFO #SalesStrategy #FinanceLeadership #RevenueOperations
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    43 mins
  • Figure CFO Macrina Kgil on Blockchain Lending, Stablecoins, and IPOs

    Figure CFO Macrina Kgil on Blockchain Lending, Stablecoins, and IPOs
    May 18 2026
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Figure Technologies CFO Macrina Kgil to break down how Figure’s business model works, why traditional lending remains so bloated, and how speed in origination and funding flows through financial performance. They also cover stablecoins, blockchain as invisible infrastructure, AI in accounting, and scaling finance with fewer than 35 people.—SPONSORS:Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNGuest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/macrina/Company: https://www.figure.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and intro3:10 Working for a CEO who's a former CFO5:00 What Figure does and how it makes money6:57 Blockchain's first commercial use case8:17 50%+ margins, path to 60%9:23 Sponsors — Brex | Aleph | RightRev12:56 HELOC origination: 45 days to 5 days14:26 Where the lending system is bloated15:56 Credit and liquidity as core risks17:06 Blockchain makes the marketplace transparent18:10 Risk as a fintech CFO19:49 Sponsors — Rillet | EY | SpendHound22:58 Crypto on the balance sheet24:12 Blockchain becomes invisible like cloud25:44 Stablecoins explained27:47 YLDS: Figure's yield-bearing stablecoin29:02 Crawl, walk, run stablecoin strategy34:32 IPO process: what got easier35:03 What got harder: testing the waters37:12 Blockchain KPIs and investor conversations38:21 Finance team: 130 people down to 3540:00 SEC engagement: storytelling not financials40:49 IPO advice: pick durable KPIs42:05 First earnings after IPO: don't miss43:13 AI automation goal: 60% by 202646:11 Director of Finance Transformation hire47:40 30-60-90 for the transformation role48:58 Long-Ass Lightning Round52:20 Credits
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    53 mins
  • Cerebras IPO: S1 Breakdown - The Giant Chip, the OpenAI Deal, and the $24B Backlog

    Cerebras IPO: S1 Breakdown - The Giant Chip, the OpenAI Deal, and the $24B Backlog
    May 14 2026

    Cerebras is going public with the largest commercial chip ever built, $510M in 2025 revenue, and a $24.6B backlog mostly tied to OpenAI. CJ breaks down the company’s wafer-scale AI bet, why inference changed the story, the strange customer-investor-lender relationships behind the IPO, and the big question: is Cerebras the next NVIDIA-style infrastructure winner, or a concentrated hardware company with a very expensive cloud pivot?

    —

    SPONSORS:

    SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj

    Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

    Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run

    RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ

    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

    EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    —

    LINKS:

    Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN

    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    —

    TIMESTAMPS:

    0:00 Preview and intro

    0:59 Cerebras: the dinner plate chip

    3:56 Why chip size matters for AI

    5:26 Old vs. new AI: inference is the bottleneck

    7:30 Revenue: 20x in 3 years

    7:49 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph

    11:33 Gross margin

    12:02 Net income: the one-time accounting trick

    12:41 Operating cash flow whipsaw

    13:24 RPO: $24.6B backlog

    13:58 Customer concentration: the UAE entities

    18:06 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY

    21:05 Cloud revenue: the inverse SaaS story

    22:23 Cloud gross margin collapse

    23:53 G42 warrants for pennies

    29:14 The OpenAI warrant: Funky Town

    31:08 $40B market cap milestone

    31:36 R&D and S&M breakdown

    33:15 Balance sheet and cash burn

    35:59 Red flag 1: accounting weaknesses

    36:37 Red flag 2: one foundry, no supply deal

    37:28 Red flag 3: UAE geopolitical risk

    38:10 Red flag 4: cloud is unproven

    39:02 Cap table: founders diluted

    40:43 Voting control: Class A, B, and N

    41:15 Valuation: 10–13x forward revenue

    41:48 Peer comparison

    43:47 CEO's prior issues

    46:10 Credits

    Nothing said or created by this podcast is business or investment advice

    #RunTheNumbersPodcast #IPO #Semiconductors #AIStrategy #FinanceLeadership
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    47 mins
  • The Investor Behind Warby Parker, Harry’s, and the Psychology of Consumer Growth | David Bell

    The Investor Behind Warby Parker, Harry’s, and the Psychology of Consumer Growth | David Bell
    May 11 2026
    David Bell, co-founder of Idea Farm Ventures and early investor behind Warby Parker, Harry’s, and Diapers.com, and CJ break down how consumer investing works. They cover why durable consumer companies require more than clean unit economics, how to apply SaaS-style thinking to businesses without contracts, and why the best opportunities often live in boring gray space.—SPONSORS:EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj—Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNGuest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-bell-086820/Company: https://www.ideafarmventures.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and intro3:16 Edge: economics and psychology5:21 Best ideas in boring gray space5:41 Functional, emotional, and symbolic value7:08 Grüns gummies and divisibility9:02 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex12:31 Ideation: personal pain vs. market analysis13:17 Diapers.com and the Starbucks origin story16:00 Warby Parker: asking why16:33 LTV to CAC in D2C18:02 Retention math: 85 to 90% can double LTV19:00 Milkman and recurring vs. reoccurring20:42 Trust economics22:38 Warby stores boost online sales22:58 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet26:12 Away store as advertising27:46 Warby discovery: dots on a map30:10 Home try-on word of mouth value32:09 D2C unit economics mistakes34:55 Innovating on distribution35:50 Touchland in Sephora: right channel, right signal37:00 Capital allocation: margin and low CAC first39:18 Sequencing: people, brand, then inventory40:58 Product vs. brand: the 8x10 thought experiment42:23 Consumer monetization shifts45:45 The gravity framework50:32 Isolation principle: most underused lever52:36 Working backwards from exit at day zero57:23 What if your business isn't venture scale?59:32 Book plug: Founders Gold1:00:25 Credits
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    1 hr and 1 min