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Prosperity Redux

Prosperity Redux

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Season 3 kicked off a month early with a conversation about the Oregon Prosperity Council’s report — the roadmap Governor Kotek commissioned to answer the question of what makes Oregon “prosperous.” Episode one featured Curtis Robinhold, one of the Council’s co-chairs, making the case for competitiveness. This episode brings the other side: Juan Carlos Ordoñez, Communications Director for the Oregon Center for Public Policy (OCPP), who has called the report a “bait and switch” — long on concern for middle-class Oregonians, short on anything that actually helps them.Two guests, two readings of the same 400-page report. That’s the point of the show.GuestJuan Carlos Ordoñez — Communications Director, Oregon Center for Public Policy, a nonpartisan research organization (celebrating its 25th anniversary) focused on tax, budget, and economic policy through the lens of low- and moderate-income Oregonians. OCPP’s core issue areas: tax policy, worker power/collective bargaining, and economic security — including a guaranteed income floor for Oregon.Find OCPP’s research at OCPP.org, and their podcast, Policy for the People, wherever you get your shows.What we cover* Is Oregon’s income inequality actually low? Juan Carlos on why that stat, even if accurate, is cold comfort — “less bad than everywhere else” isn’t the same as good.* Why unions and the minimum wage matter to the inequality story — and why Oregon’s tax system, while mildly progressive, still isn’t progressive enough.* “Business climate” as a concept — its origins as a 1950s PR term coined by GE to describe low-tax, non-union states, and why Juan Carlos argues it’s an incoherent yardstick with no agreed definition.* The composition problem: the Prosperity Council was dominated by corporate and business interests, with only two labor representatives — who dissented from the tax recommendations.* Are People making $40,000 a year paying more taxes in Oregon?: Juan Carlos cites the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy’s full effective-rate analysis (income, property, and excise taxes combined) to argue the opposite is true — and that Washington’s sales-tax-heavy system is one of the most regressive in the country.* The “bait and switch” itself: the report cites real hardship data (including the United Way’s ALICE Index) but its near-term recommendations don’t target the middle class at all — they reinstate the QSBS venture capital tax break (94% of benefits go to people making over $1 million/year), weaken the estate tax (paid by only 5% of estates), and adjust the corporate activities tax and R&D credit.* Does taxing wealth drive people out of Oregon? The research on wealthy-household migration, and why “they’ll just leave” is weaker than it sounds.* Nike, Intel, and the single-sales-factor tax structure — how two companies effectively wrote their own tax deal in 2012, and why that complicates the “Oregon is bad for business” narrative.* A progressive alternative: what Juan Carlos would put in a prosperity plan if OCPP had written it — investment in early childhood and higher education, a stronger safety net, collective bargaining, and a more progressive tax system funded by asking more of corporations and high earners.* Corporate transparency: OCPP’s proposal to require large corporations to publicly disclose what they actually pay in Oregon taxes, to settle the “we’re overtaxed” debate with real numbers.* Healthcare and entrepreneurship — closing thoughts on how employer-tied health coverage shapes (and limits) who takes the risk of starting a business.Further reading* Juan Carlos Ordoñez’s op-ed on the Prosperity Council report in the Oregon Capital Chronicle* OCPP’s published research on Oregon’s tax and economic performance — OCPP.org* Joe Cortright’s writing on Oregon’s business climate and startup activity at City Observatory* The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy’s state-by-state effective tax rate analysis* The United Way’s ALICE Index on Oregon households falling short of a livable incomeWhere do you land — Curtis’s competitiveness case or Juan Carlos’s fairness case? Leave a comment and tell us who you think has it right, and who else we should have on the show.Schmidt Show PDX is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.schmidtshowpdx.com/subscribe
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