Situated near Russia’s Kola Peninsula—home to the Northern Fleet and a core component of Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent, including ballistic-missile submarines—the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard lies within the perimeter of Moscow’s Arctic bastion defence and has become an increasingly important potential flashpoint in the context of heightened NATO–Russia tensions. In this episode, Prof. Katarzyna Zysk discusses her article “Svalbard’s Deterrence Gap” and examines recent Russian hybrid activities in Svalbard, Russia’s evolving military posture in the Arctic and Baltic regions since the invasion of Ukraine, and how NATO can bridge Svalbard’s emerging deterrence gap. The discussion also includes the implications of growing Russia–China cooperation for Svalbard and the Arctic, and considers how the eventual end of the war in Ukraine could reshape security dynamics across Northern Europe. Also discussed is the recent NATO exercise Cold Response that Prof. Zysk participated in.

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The strategic location of Greenland within the proposed Golden Dome missle defense system has been one of the Trump Administration’s main arguments for acquiring the massive Arctic island. To explain how the futuristic system would work, and why Greenland and the Arctic are crucial for protecting North America against ballistic and hypersonic cruise missles, Dr. Troy Bouffard, director of the University of Alaska-Fairbanks Center for Arctic Security and Resilience, joins the podcast. He also discusses the strained—yet in some sectors stable—state of US-European and US-Canadian relations, the indispensible role of NORAD, and the great importance of recent NATO activities like Arctic Sentry and Cold Response for maintaining strong Transatlantic ties for Arctic security in turbulent times.

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Greenland’s substantial reserves of rare earth elements and other critical raw materials have become a prominent aspect of geopolitical posturing in the Arctic. For many observers, the Trump administration’s interest in acquiring Greenland has been driven in large part by a desire to secure access to strategic minerals and reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supply chains. The European Union likewise sees Arctic natural resources as a means for reducing dependency on China.

But how viable is large-scale resource development in Greenland? What political, economic, environmental and logistical obstacles stand in the way? And how significant is China’s current Arctic engagement compared to several years ago when it actively pursued mining ventures, infrastructure investments, and scientific cooperation across Greenland and the wider region?

In this special episode of Polar Geopolitics, recorded at the Arctic Frontiers conference, we explore these questions with two leading experts. Gørild Heggelund, Research Professor and China specialist at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, and Nick Bæk Heilmann, Senior Associate at Kaya Partners in Copenhagen, offer insights into Greenland’s resource potential, the strategic competition surrounding critical minerals, and the evolving role of China in the Arctic.

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