When commodities stop behaving like trades and start behaving like truth detectors, portfolios—and advisors—need to rethink everything.

In this wide-ranging deep-dive, host Pierre Daillie welcomes back Tony Dong, Founder of ETF Portfolio Blueprint, to pressure-test the most common misconceptions about commodities investing.

Rather than treating commodities as volatile, short-term trading instruments, Tony reframes them as strategic portfolio diversifiers—assets whose value lies in low correlation, structural supply constraints, and long-term geopolitical realities.

Together, Pierre and Tony walk through energy, copper, gold, and silver—unpacking how ETFs actually deliver exposure, where investors get tripped up by outdated narratives, and why narrow, intentional allocations make sense. The discussion ultimately widens into geopolitics, multipolar power dynamics, and why ignoring politics is no longer a luxury for investors.

1. Volatility isn’t the enemy—correlation is the real story Commodities can be volatile on their own, but when they move differently from stocks and bonds, they can reduce portfolio risk and create a rebalancing premium when sized and managed properly.

2. Not all commodities are created equal—structure matters Energy equities are increasingly driven by balance sheets and capital discipline, copper faces unavoidable supply bottlenecks tied to electrification, and gold remains uniquely supported by central-bank demand. Treating them as interchangeable “inflation hedges” misses the point.

3. Narrow beats broad for most investors Tony argues that focused commodity exposure—gold, copper, or energy you actually understand—is easier to hold through volatility than broad commodity ETFs with mixed drivers, roll-yield drag, and tax complications.

00:00 – Why commodities are misunderstood

02:20 – Volatility vs. correlation: the portfolio math advisors miss

03:45 – Futures, contango, and why old commodity ETFs disappointed

04:45 – Energy ETFs: geopolitics vs. fundamentals

08:30 – Capital discipline, buybacks, and M&A in Canadian energy

10:10 – Copper’s biggest misconception: demand vs. supply reality

13:00 – Copper exposure: physical metal vs. mining equities

16:00 – Is a copper supercycle real—or reflexive?

18:30 – Multipolar geopolitics and why resources matter more now

25:10 – Gold vs. silver: false equivalency explained

29:45 – Broad commodity ETFs vs. targeted allocations

31:00 – Final thoughts: why portfolios don’t exist in a vacuum

#Commodities#CommodityETFs#PortfolioDiversification#GoldInvesting#CopperInvesting#EnergyETFs#RealAssets#ETFInvesting#WealthManagement#CanadianInvestors#MacroInvesting#GeopoliticsAndMarkets#AdvisorEducation

In this wide-ranging and intellectually rich conversation, host Pierre Daillie sits down with veteran options trader, market maker, and probabilistic thinker Kris Abdelmessih for a deep exploration of how markets really work beneath the surface—and how investors can think more clearly in a world dominated by uncertainty, noise, and emotion. Drawing on more than two decades of experience spanning Susquehanna International Group, proprietary commodity trading, and portfolio management at Parallax, Abdelmessih explains why options markets reveal truths that stock prices alone cannot, how poker shaped his understanding of risk and decision-making, and why probabilistic thinking—not prediction—separates professionals from amateurs. The discussion moves seamlessly from trading pits and market structure to behavioral bias, prediction markets, volatility, and education, culminating in a thoughtful explanation of Moontower, Abdelmessih’s platform designed to help investors understand whether options are cheap, expensive, or inappropriate for a given thesis. This episode is less about “what to buy” and more about how to think—about risk, information, and the difference between being right and making money.

Stock prices are two-dimensional snapshots. Options markets, by contrast, embed the market’s full probability distribution—revealing not just where investors think prices may go, but how violently and under what conditions. This makes options markets a powerful lens for understanding hidden risks and asymmetric outcomes.

2️⃣ Good Decisions Can Still Lose—And That’s the Point

Drawing parallels between poker and trading, Abdelmessih emphasizes that outcomes are noisy, even when decisions are sound. Professionals focus on expected value, risk sizing, and repeatability, not short-term wins or losses. This mindset is critical for surviving low-signal environments like financial markets.

Markets aggregate information better than opinions. From CEO resignations to geopolitical outcomes, prices often reveal consensus faster—and more accurately—than pundits. Understanding volatility, probability, and conditional outcomes will become increasingly important as prediction markets and derivatives continue to evolve. ⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

01:15 – Kris Abdelmessih’s career path: SIG, commodities, Parallax

05:10 – From Cornell to trading floors: curiosity as a career catalyst

24:30 – Poker, probability, and Bayesian thinking at Susquehanna

29:20 – Why being “right” doesn’t matter in markets

37:00 – Market making vs. portfolio management: different risk shapes

43:00 – Trading oil, gas, and the chaos of pit trading

48:00 – Why specialization is both powerful and dangerous

58:30 – What Moontower is—and why most investors misuse options

1:02:00 – How options reveal hidden distributions in stock prices

1:08:00 – Prediction markets, truth, and market-based consensus

More on Kris Abdelmessih

Kris Abdelmessih on Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristopher-abdelmessih-63b1b1/

Moontower.ai - https://www.moontower.ai/

Moontower Substack - https://moontower.substack.com/

#OptionsTrading#MarketStructure#ProbabilisticThinking#Volatility#RiskManagement#BehavioralFinance#PredictionMarkets#InvestingMindset#FinancialEducation#InsightIsCapital