How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold

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How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold

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In "How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold" Joe Lynch and Andrew Sibold, Director of Economics and Freight Policy at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), discuss how IANA's new predictive Intermodal Volume Index (IVI) helps logistics leaders navigate shifting market capacity and operational friction to successfully forecast the 2026 freight recovery. About Andrew Sibold Andrew Sibold is the Director of Economics and Freight Policy at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), where he leads market analysis, research, and economic forecasting that informs both private capital strategy and public policy. Before IANA, he spent five years at the Federal Highway Administration as a financial and economic analyst, where his benefit-cost and net present value modeling helped adjudicate more than $12.1 billion in federal infrastructure grants. He came to economics through the U.S. Army, serving as an Armor officer who led logistics and operations on deployments across Europe and Central Asia. Andrew holds a Master of Public Policy from the University of Tennessee, as well as advanced degrees in economics, econometrics, and international relations. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland, with his wife and four children. About Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) is the leading industry trade association representing the combined interests of the intermodal freight community. Its membership spans the full ecosystem that moves containerized freight across modes — railroads, ocean carriers, ports and terminals, drayage and motor carriers, intermodal marketing companies, and equipment providers. IANA promotes the efficiency, safety, and growth of intermodal transportation through industry standards, professional education, government affairs, and data services. As the connective tissue of a sector that handles a substantial share of North American freight, IANA gives members a unified voice on policy and a shared infrastructure for operations. Increasingly, it also serves as a source of market intelligence, equipping members with the economic data and forecasting they need to navigate a volatile freight cycle. Key Takeaways: How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound In "How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold" Joe Lynch and Andrew Sibold, Director of Economics and Freight Policy at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), discuss how IANA's new predictive Intermodal Volume Index (IVI) helps logistics leaders navigate shifting market capacity and operational friction to successfully forecast the 2026 freight recovery. IANA as the "Conductor" of the Intermodal Ecosystem: The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) serves as the critical connective tissue and unified voice for a fragmented freight community. By connecting railroads, ocean carriers, ports, drayage motor carriers, and 3PLs, IANA acts as an industry "conductor" to harmonize operations across multiple transportation modes that handle a substantial share of North American freight.Eliminating Blind Spots with the Intermodal Volume Index (IVI): Historically, intermodal freight data has been fragmented and heavily lagging—with rail data delayed by a week and port data lagging by two to three months. Launched publicly in May, IANA's new IVI solves this industry pain point by acting as a real-time, seasonally adjusted "pulse check" on North American freight activity.Shifting from Lagging to Predictive Capacity Planning: Unlike traditional freight indicators that only look backward (like GDP or older equipment data), the IVI functions as a predictive bridge. By utilizing a mathematical process to bring historical data into the present and factoring in seasonal fluctuations, it provides mid-market shippers, 3PLs, and asset-based carriers with a forward-looking forecast to confidently adjust capacity planning.Unconventional Market Strength in 2026: The IVI is currently printing quite strong—tracking right around 106 for June, which is 6% higher than the pre-COVID baseline. While total import container volumes (TEUs) have softened due to tariff effects, intermodal volumes are rebounding rapidly due to a surge in high-value domestic manufacturing freight, driven heavily by investments in data centers and infrastructure built to support modern AI.Reducing Operational Friction via Standardization: Intermodal logistics inherently suffers from handoff friction between different actors, leading to costly demurrage, detention, and lost productivity. IANA mitigates this administrative nightmare by managing standardized operational frameworks—most notably the Uniform Intermodal Interchange and Facilities Agreement (UIIA)—which serves as a single, universal contract that lowers industry insurance costs and streamlines driver registrations.Navigating Volatility and Truck-to-Rail Conversion: Global ...

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