A Friday synthesis on calendar-driven narratives, plus next week’s fresh catalysts: March flash PMI and Treasury auction week.

Episode 19 of Guilded News is the Friday capstone. We synthesize what Mon–Thu revealed: the calendar became the narrative engine, compressing attention, manufacturing inevitability, and hiding transferable patterns (price ladders and permission ladders) in plain sight. Then we rotate to next week’s fresh setup: S&P Global’s March flash PMI on March 24 as the first forward read on activity, and the Treasury’s 2-year/5-year/7-year auctions (Mar 24–26) as the observable demand test for liquidity. Primary sources: BLS PPI, BIS/FSB cross-border payments speech, Fed calendars, Treasury auction schedule, S&P Global note.

Episode 18:

Title: Price Ladders — PPI, Oil Inventories, and the Hidden Toll on Trade | Guilded News EP18 Episode Notes: Inflation isn’t one number, it’s a ladder. Segment A: The upstream fuse. BLS reports PPI final demand +0.7% in February, +3.4% y/y, with goods +1.1% and services +0.5%. Diesel and food inputs jumped. Source: BLS. Segment B: The optionality layer. A public summary of the IEA’s March Oil Market Report notes global observed oil stocks at ~8.21 billion barrels in January and a coordinated 400 million barrel emergency release. Inventories decide whether shocks become inflation. Segment C: The tollbooth. An FSB payments speech published by the BIS says cross-border payments are still slow and expensive; progress is uneven even as ISO 20022 adoption spreads. Payments frictions act like a hidden tax on trade.

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Ep 17:

The Fed is buying bonds again. The world is borrowing $29 trillion. And the PPI pipeline just told us where prices are going. Description: Episode 17 of Guilded News goes underneath the headlines. The Fed quietly reversed its balance sheet from shrinking to expanding in December 2025 — buying $40 billion per month in "reserve management purchases" that look a lot like QE under a new name. The OECD projects global sovereign borrowing will hit $29 trillion in 2026 — up 17% in two years. And February PPI dropped this morning, revealing whether $100 oil has reached the factory floor. Primary sources: FOMC minutes, NY Fed, H.4.1 balance sheet, OECD Global Debt Report, IMF WP/26/42, BLS PPI.

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