It’s hard to keep track of the latest developments in the new U.S. war in Iran, mostly because we are seeing conflicting information coming from the administration—including differing timelines and justifications.

Part of the justification given for this new war has circled around Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with Trump on Saturday saying Iran attempted to rebuild its nuclear program.

This is subject matter Tom Countryman knows intimately well. He was the Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation. From 1994 to 1997 he was the special advisor to United States Ambassador to the United Nations Madeleine Albright on Middle East affairs. He was on his way to an arms control conference in 2017 when Trump relieved him of his duties.

We discuss the justifications, the timing of the attack, the negotiations it interrupted, and what this means for the future of diplomacy. How does Iran function without a government or organized opposition? Plus, what keeps him up at night and the very real scenarios he sees as a threat.

We woke up Saturday morning to the news that the U.S. is at war with Iran. By Sunday morning, we learned of the deaths of three U.S. service members and a promise of retaliation from Iran after U.S. and Israeli strikes took out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with dozens of other senior leaders.

As we recorded this live episode, there are still so many unanswered questions.

What comes next? Could more hardline forces take over? What does threatened retaliation look like? Is this about nuclear weapons and missiles? Why is the president posting on Truth Social about Iran meddling in the 2020 election? Is there any kind of plan? What’s the exit strategy? We could go on.

Thanks to journalist Kevin Baron for joining us to chat through it. Baron served as the vice president of the Pentagon Press Association and also covered the Pentagon for many years.

We discuss the parallel to other Middle Eastern conflicts, the motivation for this campaign, the timing, and what (more specifically, who) was missing at the Pentagon this weekend.

Plus, what does regime change look like without organized opposition in Iran? Will there be a democratic process to put new leadership in power? What kind of extremism could arise? And what questions would Baron be asking if he were still at the Pentagon?

We don’t have all the answers, but it’s a good start to lay out where we are and the concerns that exist.

If we’re the frogs, it’s getting hot in here (And no, JT hasn’t heard the 2002 Nelly hit of the same name).

Thanks to former U.S. Attorney Joyce White Vance for joining us live on Substack to dissect a plethora of headlines, why we’re (again) the frogs in the increasingly hot pot of water, and the importance of civil discourse in this moment. Plus, the individual actions that keep Vance an optimist, and why she’s confident we won’t see the nationalization of elections.

We also spend time discussing her book, Giving Up Is Unforgivable: A Manual for Keeping a Democracy, which combines lessons on history and civics and provides a roadmap for survival. Oh, and chickens—both literal and figurative.