Was this the week that shattered the western alliance? Not so fast, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. Despite the strains of a Trump presidency, deep economic dependencies on the US suggest that talk of a new international order is overblown. Neil cuts through the Davos rhetoric to explain the reality of the current global macro landscape.

Later in the show, as the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine approaches, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach explains what many get wrong about Russia’s economy. He explores how initial resilience has finally given way to weakness, but also why this shift is unlikely to force Putin into meaningful concessions to end the war.

Referenced in this episode:

Analysis hub: Japan's reinflationary reawakening
Drop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026

EM Financial Risk Indicators

Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That’s China’s big global macro play, and it’s one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics is on The Weekly Briefing to explain what that mammoth trade imbalance means for advanced and emerging economies in a fracturing global economy, including why some EMs are doing quite well as a result of all of the geoeconomic ructions.

Also on the show, there’s an awful lot of noise around the race for AI leadership between the US and China, but how to separate out the hype from the reality? China Economist Leah Fahy’s new report sizes up the progress that Chinese AI has made since the launch of DeepSeek a year ago, and the impact that Beijing’s race for tech supremacy will have on the country’s economic outlook.

Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026
China’s AI rollout could rival the US
Drop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026
The economic and market impact of AI

The first trading week of 2026 has been a whirlwind of geopolitical shocks and big economic developments. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back on The Weekly Briefing to break down an historic start to the year, including:

• The Maduro capture: Neil provides much-needed macro and market context behind the news of Nicolás Maduro’s capture in Venezuela.
• AI and US productivity impacts: Whether the "stunning" Q3 US productivity numbers suggest massive AI investments are moving the needle for the US economy – and whether other economies will soon start feeling the benefit.
• The labour market and the Fed: A review of the December payrolls report and what it could mean for the Fed.

Also on the show: David Oxley and Kieran Tompkins from our Commodities team join us to make sense of a volatile week in the oil market. They discuss the reality behind expectations for a surge in Venezuelan oil flows onto the global market.

This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and Senior Real Estate Economist Amy Wood join David Wilder to discuss whether this weakness will persist through 2026 and where investors can still find outperformance. Kiran and Amy address:

• Why higher-for-longer interest rates remain the primary determinant of returns for most clients.
• What is required to bridge the gap between seller and buyer price expectations.
• Which traditional sectors offer the best returns, and which alternatives will provide significant outperformance.
• Why private credit markets represent the greatest downside risk to commercial real estate in 2026.

Further reading:

Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025)

The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing Chinese trade surplus has a corresponding deficit that could present a key risk to global macro stability.

Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses one of our most prominent calls for 2026: why, despite recent wobbles, the AI-driven equities bubble will continue to inflate.

In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.

They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China’s exporters can take market share and why a new Fed chair probably won’t deliver the rate cuts that Donald Trump wants.

Learn more:

The World in 2026 homepage

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn’t – changed in the European outlook.

They explore Europe’s challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn’t being met by action.

Plus, in a clip from a recent client briefing, EM economists Liam Peach and William Jackson provide an update on the war in Ukraine and the latest White House efforts to broker a ceasefire.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

Drop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlook
Spotlight: The future of Europe
Read: ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth
Watch: China and Russia – The limits of the “no limits” partnership

Read: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits

After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all the initial success in launching this Budget, where is the strategy that will lift the UK’s anaemic growth? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory join David Wilder to assess the Budget’s impact, the economic fallout and why lingering political uncertainty still points to more bond-market volatility in 2026.

Plus, Chinese fixed-asset investment is falling, prompting debate among China watchers about whether it's a sign the crackdown on price wars and overcapacity is biting. But China Economist Leah Fahy explains why there could be less to investment's weakness than the success of Beijing’s policies – and the latest reading of our China Activity Proxy helps show why.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

Watch: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets?
Register: Autumn Budget – What does it mean for the property outlook?
Read: Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up
Explore: The economic and market impact of AI
Read: CAP: Growth slows, but industry still going strong