Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi already have history. Horiguchi beat him nearly a decade ago in RIZIN, and now Kape gets the rematch at a point where the winner can make a real argument for a title shot against Joshua Van. Kape has the speed, the power, and the confidence to capitalize on the matchup at this stage of his career. Horiguchi has the top-tier experience, the timing, and the athleticism that made the first fight go his way. So the question is simple: has Kape become too sharp for the old dog, or will Horiguchi make it 2-0 vs “Starboy” in this weekend’s main event.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you do not want to miss, and full main card picks for: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Martazali Magomedov, Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas, Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez, Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira, Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling, Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi, plus the recap of UFC Freedom 250: Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Freedom 250 Recap: 1:17

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 11:10

Stats You Need to Know: 12:50

Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas: 14:15

Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira: 19:54

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Martazali Magomedov: 25:53

Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez: 31:50

Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling: 37:39

Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi: 42:14

Best Bets of the Week: 50:49

Prelim Pourover: 52:46

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Ilia Topuria enters UFC Freedom 250 with the lightweight title, some of the cleanest hands in the sport, and a bitter rivalry waiting for him across the cage in interim champion Justin Gaethje. Can Topuria extend his run of dominance at 155, or is Gaethje the one to drag him into deep water?

Topuria vs. Gaethje headlines a loaded card with major stakes up and down the lineup. Alex Pereira meets Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title, Mauricio Ruffy gets a massive spotlight against former title challenger Michael Chandler, and UFC Freedom 250 has the feel of one of the biggest fight nights of the year.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you do not want to miss, and full main card picks for: Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje, Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane, Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi, Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis, Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler, Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus, Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia, plus the recap of UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Vegas 118 Recap: 1:15

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia: 6:38

Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus: 13:33

Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler: 18:00

Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis: 22:39

Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi: 29:28

Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane: 35:21

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje: 41:34

Best Bets of the Week: 48:24

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Former Welterweight champion Belal Muhammad is coming off of back-to-back losses for the first time in his career and now he’s matched up with a surging contender with only one loss in twenty career bouts. Gabriel Bonfim is no longer just a dangerous prospect with slick submissions and heavy hands. He is ranked, coming off 4 straight wins, and getting a five-round main event against a former champion who has spent his career living in deep waters.

Belal brings the championship pedigree, pressure wrestling, and elite-level experience. Bonfim has the cleaner finishing threat, the confidence of a four-fight winning streak, and the chance to turn an Apex main event into a real argument for a title shot.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you do not want to miss, and full main card picks for: Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim, Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan, Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan, Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna, Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa, plus the recap of UFC Macau: Song vs Figueiredo.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Macau Recap: 1:14

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 4:55

Stats You Need to Know: 6:47

Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa: 11:00

Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa: 16:44

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna: 20:58

Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan: 26:30

Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan: 33:06

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim: 36:21

Best Bets of the Week: 43:29

Prelim Pourover: 47:23

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Melquizael Costa is climbing, and UFC Vegas 117 gives him the gatekeeper test that tells us if he is ready for the next tier at featherweight. Arnold Allen may not be a fresh name anymore, but he is still a dangerous veteran with the style and experience to check Costa’s rise. Costa is trying to force his way toward the title conversation, and Allen is trying to defend his rank.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa, Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos, Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz, Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards, Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj plus the recap of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC 328 Recap: 1:09

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 7:37

Stats You Need to Know: 9:26

Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj: 12:10

Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards: 18:36

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz: 23:12

Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos: 28:50

Arnold Allen vs Melky Costa: 34:18

Best Bets of the Week: 41:19

Prelim Pourover: 44:12

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Khamzat Chimaev switches from being the boogeyman of the middleweight division to carrying the pressure that comes with the crown. Former Middleweight champ Sean Strickland is trying to prove he can shut down the wrestling, win back the title, and show he never should have lost the belt in the first place. This middleweight main event brings pressure, chaos, and a real question for the division: do we finally get a long-term champion again, or does the title keep changing hands?


Best bets, a sleeper fight you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland, Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van, Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Alexander Volkov, Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady, King Green vs Jeremy Stephens, plus the recap of UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs Prates.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Perth Recap: 1:20

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 9:23

Stats You Need to Know: 11:04

King Green vs Jeremy Stephens: 13:13

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley: 18:35

Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 25:06

Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira: 30:48

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland: 37:29

Best Bets of the Week: 47:20

Prelim Pourover: 50:13


Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Jack Della Maddalena gets the chance to remind everybody who he was before Islam Makhachev changed the conversation. One loss to a once-in-a-generation talent does not erase what JDM has built, but he still has to get past the surging southpaw striker Carlos Prates to hit the reset button. UFC Perth gives us a dangerous welterweight main event where somebody’s title case takes a real hit, while the other moves one step closer to a shot at gold.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates, Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld, Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg, Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić, Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland, plus the recap of UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs Zalal.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00


UFC Vegas 116 Recap: 0:54


AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 9:29


Stats You Need to Know: 10:50

Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland: 13:15

Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić: 19:58

Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg: 25:38

Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld: 31:22

Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates: 38:14


Best Bets of the Week: 48:13


Prelim Pourover: 50:37


Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal is the main event for UFC Vegas 116 and the former champion Sterling is trying to build his case to lock in a title shot. Youssef Zalal is riding a 5 fight win streak looking to make the most of his second UFC run -- can the 29 year old “Moroccan Devil” turn the “Funk Master” into a certified gatekeeper at featherweight?

Best bets, a sleeper fighter you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal, Norma Dumont vs. Joselyn Edwards, Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez, Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti, Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos, Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann plus the recap of UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs. Malott.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Winnipeg Recap: 1:05

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 7:00

Stats You Need to Know: 8:58

Buchecha vs. Spann: 12:37

Jackson vs. Barcelos: 18:43

Grant vs. Martinetti: 25:05

Garcia vs. Hernandez: 30:27

Dumont vs. Edwards: 35:31

Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal: 41:09

Best Bets of the Week: 47:54

Prelim Pourover: 50:39

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott is the main event for UFC Winnipeg and the Canadian contender is trying to win his first UFC main event while Burns is trying to stay relevant in the division.

Full breakdown and picks for: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott, Phillips vs. Jourdain, Nallo vs. Herbert, Jasudavicius vs. Silva, Moisés vs. Young, Buzukja vs. Barbosa plus the recap of UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC 327 Recap: 1:40

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 10:25

Stats You Need to Know: 12:10

Buzukja vs. Barbosa: 15:15

Moisés vs. Young: 20:50

Jasudavicius vs. Silva: 26:14

Nallo vs. Herbert: 31:21

Phillips vs. Jourdain: 37:57

Burns vs. Malott (Main Event): 43:53

Best Bets of the Week: 50:55

Prelim Pourover: 53:54

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.