- **Big market question:** TD Cowen challenged the structural-decline narrative, forecasting U.S. supplier gross revenue growth of 1.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with volume stabilization in 2027.

- **Current category pressure remains real:** IWSR reported total U.S. beverage alcohol volume down 5% last year; NielsenIQ showed recent total alcohol dollar sales down 4.1%.

- **Beer was mixed:** Constellation Brands gained momentum behind Modelo and Corona, ABI improved with Michelob Ultra, Bud Light, and Budweiser, while Molson Coors remained pressured by Miller Lite and Coors Light softness plus aluminum cost headwinds.

- **Diageo restructuring intensified:** CEO Dave Lewis’ cost-cutting reached North America, with Laura Merritt reportedly departing and Keara Funck taking over the U.S. division. Citi upgraded Diageo to Buy despite weak U.S. spirits trends.

- **Whiskey is split:** Flavored whiskey, especially Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Blackberry, Crown Royal Blackberry, and Evan Williams Blackberry, is driving trial, while Brown-Forman, MGP Ingredients, and broader American whiskey remain under investor pressure.

- **RTDs and prepared cocktails stayed hot:** Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, BuzzBallz, and High Noon highlighted the category’s continued momentum, even as some pioneers moderated.

- **Distribution is consolidating fast:** RNDC’s breakup continued, Reyes expanded its footprint, Martignetti and Columbia picked up markets, Southern Glazer’s acquired Clare Rose, and M.S. Walker aligned with Reyes across 11 markets.

- **FTC and Southern Glazer’s reached an agreement in principle:** The Robinson-Patman case alleged small retailers were charged up to 67% more than national chains including Costco, Walmart, and Total Wine.

- **Wine remains challenged:** Off-premise, distributor depletion, DtC, export, inventory, grape supply, and profitability data all pointed to pressure, though ultra-premium Napa remained more resilient.

- **Wine industry consolidation continued:** Treasury Wine Estates rationalized its portfolio around DAOU, Penfolds, and Matua; Abbot’s Passage closed; Vint is winding down; Goodwood Brewing filed for Chapter 7 liquidation.

- **Hemp beverages got a major policy signal:** A White House letter endorsed Representative Andy Barr’s Lawful Hemp Protection Act or an extension of the November 12 hemp ban implementation.

- **Innovation remained active:** Owl’s Brew launched Spiked Pop, Ben Weiss launched Crooked Pop, Karl Strauss gained traction with Hard Cherry Cola, Bravazzi crossed 100,000 cases, and Phusion launched THC-infused Nine Loko.

- **Consumer behavior is fragmenting:** CivicScience showed overall drinking incidence rising to 68%, Gen Z planning to drink more, Gen X planning to scale back, and “dry-tripping” continuing to grow.

- **Craft beer is deeper but narrower:** Brewers Association Harris Poll data showed craft drinkers are more engaged, but total reach is shrinking and craft trails wine, spirits, and imports in penetration.

- **Retail and restaurants show caution:** Kroger grew sales and e-commerce, Amazon Prime Day started soft despite Adobe’s record sales forecast, and the National Restaurant Association projected fewer summer restaurant jobs.

- **Non-alcoholic beverage strength continued:** Energy drinks and bottled water outperformed, with Monster gaining share, Red Bull preparing price increases, Celsius slowing, Coca-Cola growing, PepsiCo declining, and Keurig Dr Pepper rising.

- **Key closing takeaway:** The U.S. beverage market is not uniformly declining. It is fragmenting, with growth shifting toward accessible innovation, RTDs, value-oriented brands, select beer winners, and occasion-led consumption.

* **Global Trade & Tariff Volatility:** A 100% U.S. tariff threat on French wine/Champagne looms over France's 3% Digital Services Tax. Concurrently, the American Whiskey Association is actively lobbying for access to India’s massive emerging consumer class. The interdependency of the global spirits trade was highlighted by John Swinney’s visit to Independent Stave Company's Kentucky Cooperage.

* **Corporate Resets & Sweeping Restructuring:** Under the cost-cutting leadership of Sir Dave Lewis, Diageo begins deep cuts, executive shakeups (departures in North America, UK, Africa; hiring Marc Woodward), price cuts on flagship brands, and an aggressive pivot to canned RTDs.

* **The World Cup Draft Surge:** The opening week of the FIFA World Cup drove historic draft and packaged beer numbers. Michelob Ultra took dominant draft gains, followed by Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, Pacifico, and Guinness. Local taprooms like KC Bier and Sam Adams reported massive volume jumps.

* **Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Outperformance:** Spirits-based RTDs continue to lead off-premise sales, with ABI (Cutwater) showing stellar growth (+124.9% dollars). Brand surges from Stateside's Surfside and Boston Beer’s Sun Cruiser illustrate the segment's velocity.

* **Major M&A & Retail Consolidations:** Spec’s Family Corp buys out Lee’s Discount Liquor in Las Vegas for its first out-of-state transaction. Berlin Packaging acquires O. Berk Company and BlueSky. Bronco Wine Company assumes national representation of McManis, LangeTwins, and Provenance via the purchase of Resurrection Brands.

* **Agriculture & Wine Industry Strain:** California Lodi vine pull-outs have hit 10% in the last year, with families like Mohr-Fry Ranch pivoting to alternative crops. Washington State's wine grape crop hit its lowest production volume since 2011, causing Pacific Rim's Chapter 11 filing, while Ste. Michelle begins its quality pivot under Court Wyckoff.

* **Demographic & Behavioral Shifts:** Morning Consult tracks GLP-1 weight-loss drug users shifting casual dining away from family programs to professional and group social gatherings, driving a physical restructuring of on-premise venues.

* **Federal Regulatory Constraints:** The industry gears up for a potential November ban on hemp-derived cannabinoids, while a federal lawsuit from AALM challenges the DOJ's Schedule III reclassification of marijuana. Trip showcases CBD brand maturity, marching toward a $200 million revenue run rate.

**Key Themes This Week:**

- US beverage alcohol market in structural multi-year decline; IWSR projects -18% servings by 2035

- Beer enters summer with negative momentum; Memorial Day disappointing across channels

- World Cup represents industry's largest activation bet — Diageo makes history as first spirits sponsor

- Wine industry contraction deepens: Treasury Wine Estates slashes portfolio from 76 to <30 brands; Gallo closes another facility

- Distribution tier consolidation accelerates with Reyes completing landmark RNDC 11-market acquisition

**Major Company Moves:**

- **AB InBev:** Michelob Ultra becomes #1 US beer brand by volume; Cutwater RTD posts +95.4% holiday week growth

- **Reyes Beverage Group:** Closes RNDC deal — adds 600+ suppliers, 38M cases, $4B revenue; now #3 US wine & spirits distributor

- **Treasury Wine Estates:** Cuts brands from 76 to <30; SKUs from 1,700 to <850; stock +13% on restructuring but down >50% YoY

- **Gallo:** Closes West Turner Road crush facility in Lodi; fourth facility closure since 2025

- **Constellation Brands:** Only major brewer in positive territory; Pacifico +17.5% dollars; F1Q27 earnings June 30

- **Boston Beer:** Dollar sales -14.1% in L4W; fighting $175.5M Ardagh verdict

- **Diageo:** First-ever World Cup spirits sponsor; NA revenue -9%, US spirits -15%; strategy update August 6

- **Molson Coors:** Losses accelerating; raising summer ad spend 60%; launching Coors 0.0%

- **Moon Distributors:** Acquiring RNDC's Arkansas operations

- **Lucas Bols USA:** Complete national distribution realignment away from RNDC to four-partner network

- **DISCUS:** Robinson Brown IV (Brown-Forman) elected Chair; Joe Fortune (Mast-Jägermeister) Vice Chair

- **Uncle Nearest:** Enters receivership; active litigation

- **Luca Mariano Distillery:** Apogee 21 Holdings as sole bidder at $16.7M

- **Sazerac:** Threatens legal action over NC ABC minimum pricing proposal

- **Hightails (THC beverages):** National sales partnership with Spirited Insiders

- **Fever-Tree:** US market share gains via Molson Coors partnership; first national US marketing campaign

- **Johnson Brothers:** Expands Round Pond Estate distribution to 9 new states; acquires Lucas Bols Midwest markets

- **Mulholland Distilling:** Names Classic Wine & Spirits as California distributor

- **Smart Distributors (MO):** Strategic investment from Leslie Rudd Investment Company

- **Trulieve Cannabis:** Corporate de-consolidation; medical entity pursuing NYSE listing

**Data Points to Watch:**

- Total US alcohol: $8.6B in L4W, -4.6% YoY dollars, -6.3% volume

- Beer YTD: +0.3% dollars, -1.2% volume (MULO+C); L4W turned negative

- RTDs: Only positive bev-alc category (+0.1% dollars in L4W)

- May Food PPI: +2.4% YoY, accelerating; 2-year stack +6.2%

- Beer-at-home CPI: +2.9% YoY in May (from +2.2% April)

- TBA wholesaler inventories: -4.3% YoY but still 39% above 2019 levels

- Microbrewery volume: -8.9% in 2025, lowest since 2014

- NA beer (domestic): +17.1% YTD; Michelob NA +95.2%

- Energy drinks: +6.1% L2W; Monster +5.7%, Celsius/Alani combined share 16%

- GLP-1 market: TD Cowen raises 2030 estimate to $150B, 26M US patients projected

**Regulatory & Legal:**

- Ohio files SCOTUS cert petition on wine retailer shipping (Block v. Canepa) — first state AG petition, circuit split acknowledged

- Sazerac threatens legal action over NC ABC minimum spirits pricing

- Boston Beer affiliate fights $175.5M Ardagh can supply verdict

- Second Circuit vacates $1.3M Peju Province Winery trademark judgment

- Garden Path Fermentation TTB vintage labeling challenge dismissed without prejudice

- Oregon OLCC sting operations down 85%

- NY One Fair Price Act (anti-AI pricing) passes legislature, awaits governor

- Dueling health studies: government study finds risk at 1 drink/day vs. JGIM study finding no moderate drinking-cancer mortality link

- Total Wine faces potential 20,000-applicant class action in Washington State

**Key Themes This Week:**

- US beverage alcohol market broadly declining across all categories; consumer sentiment near historic lows

- Spirit-based RTDs are the sole clear growth engine within spirits

- Non-alcoholic beer continues rapid ascent, led by Athletic Brewing and Go Brewing

- Wine faces a six-year structural contraction; DTC shipments resume decline after brief March recovery

- Craft beer regional breweries see 55%+ in decline; consolidation accelerating

**Major Company & Brand Moves:**

- **Uncle Nearest:** Receivership expanded; federal investigation disclosed; court values brand at $50–125M vs. $208M in total debts; sale hearing June 11

- **Constellation Brands:** Sequential beer volume improvement ahead of Q1 earnings; TD Cowen trims near-term EPS to $3.30, maintains Buy

- **AB InBev:** Outperforms broader beer market; Busch franchise growing +7.5%; Bud Light volumes still declining double digits

- **Diageo:** Continued US spirits weakness; Casamigos -13.4%, Don Julio -21.7%; vodka volumes -8.6%

- **RNDC:** 320+ additional layoffs in Washington and South Dakota; multi-state unwind continues at accelerating pace

- **Boisset Collection:** Aligns nationally with Southern Glazer's across 26 markets

- **Tilman Fertitta:** $17.6 billion acquisition of Caesars Entertainment signals confidence in on-premise entertainment

**Category Highlights:**

- **Spirits:** NABCA Control States volumes -1.2% in April; RTD brands Sun Cruiser, Surfside, Cutwater, BuzzBallz all surging

- **Beer:** Total volumes -7.0% in L4W; craft beer production -5.1%; Rogue Ales files Chapter 7; New Belgium surpasses Molson Coors as largest non-BA craft family

- **Wine:** DTC shipment value -2% in April; volume -13%; average bottle price hits record $65.55; Burgundy dominates US fine wine auctions at 56% of value

- **Hard Cider:** +3.6% dollar growth; Angry Orchard holds 35.8% share; bottom 200 vendors collectively declining

- **Energy Drinks:** Category +4.7%; Celsius/Alani Nu outperform; Red Bull market share eroding

- **Non-Alc Beer:** +14% growth; Athletic Brewing +20.4% dollars; Go Brewing +116% production volume

**Regulatory & Trade Watch:**

- Illinois proposed tax rule could classify spirit-based RTDs at $8.55/gallon spirits rate; echoes previously unconstitutional approach; comment period closes June 8

- California AB 1585 passes Assembly 67-0; would require "American" wine to use 100% American-grown grapes

- American whiskey exports -19% in 2025; Canada -57%, EU -35%, Japan -28%

- SNAP soda restrictions expanding; CSD volumes -4.0% in restricted states vs. -1.7% elsewhere

**Retail & Distribution:**

- BJ's Wholesale Q1 sales +9.9% to $5.53B; 12 new clubs planned for 2026

- Trader Joe's adding 25 planned new stores; visit growth nearly 3x grocery average

- Sotheby's American whiskey auction raises $2.5M; Old Rip Van Winkle 20-Year sets record at $162,500

**Key Themes:**

- Broad US bev-alc contraction deepens: total off-premise sales down 6% in dollars, 7% in volume (4 weeks ending May 9)

- Consumer trade-down behavior hits record levels; premium and luxury tiers under acute pressure

- Spirits-based RTDs remain sole reliable growth engine but approaching saturation with 750+ brands

- RNDC national unwind accelerates with Oregon WARN filings; distribution map being redrawn nationwide

- Bourbon oversupply crisis: 16.1 million barrels in Kentucky, Jim Beam still shuttered through 2027

**Notable Company Moves:**

- Brown-Forman cut 12% of workforce; Citi cuts price target to $26; fiscal Q4 report June 4

- Diageo leadership overhaul under new CEO Dave Lewis; four senior executives departing

- Molson Coors doubles down on M&A: Monaco Cocktails and Fever-Tree integration; Keystone Light reinvestment

- Boston Beer announces $25M share buyback tranche; Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea value packs gaining traction

- Treasury Wine Estates under shareholder pressure; Goudet increases stake to 9%; investor day June 4

- Bale Breaker acquires Cloudburst Brewing in Pacific Northwest craft deal

- Mitchell Companies expands A-B distribution footprint into Annapolis and DC markets

**RTD Brand Performance (52-week Circana data):**

- BuzzBallz (Sazerac): $569M, +65.6%, 20.8% share

- BeatBox (A-B InBev): $312.5M, +30.5%, 11.4% share

- Cutwater (A-B InBev): +72.3%, 11.0% share; overtook High Noon in 2-week share

- Surfside (Stateside): $150.7M, +325%, 5.5% share

- Sun Cruiser (Boston Beer): $114.7M, +433%, 4.2% share

- High Noon (Gallo): declining 11-14% in recent periods

**Wine Market:**

- DtC shipment volume down 13% in April; average bottle price hits record $65.55

- Napa volume up ~1%, value up 4%+; Florida surges to #2 DtC destination

- Sub-$5 wine tier down 19.1%; wine-based cocktails up 11.8%

- California harvest smallest this century at 2.6M tons

- Canada trade ban: US wine exports to Canada down 77% ($343M decline)

**Regulatory & Legal:**

- Supreme Court denies cert on Indiana and Arizona retail shipping cases; three-tier system reinforced

- 6th Circuit Block v. Canepa ruling could open Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee to retail shipping

- 5th Circuit rules federal home distilling ban unconstitutional (TX, LA, MS)

- WHO alcohol labeling initiative blocked at Codex Alimentarius; 18-month reprieve

- Hemp THC regulation: Lawful Hemp Protection Act proposed; November 2026 THC ban looms

- Jack Daniel's "Bad Spaniels" trademark case returns to 9th Circuit

**Consumer Insights:**

- Deloitte: 3 in 4 alcohol executives call value-seeking structural, not cyclical

- 75% of Memorial Day shoppers plan to buy beer; 45% say prices will impact spending

- Below-premium beer gaining share; Gen Z indexes 2x for cider; Boomers lean wine

- Restaurant traffic under pressure: 35% of consumers spending more than they earn

**Retail & Adjacent:**

- Walmart Q1 beats: +4.1% US comp sales, e-commerce +26%

- Target Q1 beats: +5.6% comp sales vs. +2.4% consensus

- Family Dollar closes 350+ stores post-PE acquisition

- Monster Beverage closing price gap with Red Bull; 31% vs. 25.5% volume share

- SF liquor license values collapsed from $230K peak to ~$100K

**Distressed Assets & Bankruptcies:**

- Spirits of the USA LLC (Legends brand): Chapter 11 filed May 15

- Alton Distillery: second Chapter 11 petition filed April 2026

- Distillery 291: staff cut from 30 to 12

**Key Themes This Week:**

- **The Great Distribution Reshuffling:** RNDC exits nearly all U.S. territories; Reyes acquires 11 states, Breakthru takes Kentucky and Indiana, Martignetti absorbs 17 control states, Manhattan Beer takes New York wine/spirits rights, Columbia Distributing eyes Oregon/Washington/Alaska, Quality Brands picks up Nebraska and the Dakotas. Southern Glazer's and Johnson Brothers aggressively capture displaced relationships. Glazer's Inc. confirms family leadership continuity after Bennett Glazer's passing.

- **Brown-Forman's Double Rejection:** Pernod Ricard merger-of-equals collapses over family governance disputes. Sazerac's $17B ($32/share) all-cash bid formally rejected. Brown-Forman faces third consecutive year of declining sales with no strategic partner. Sazerac pivots, takes equity stake in SIPMARGS RTD margarita brand.

- **Off-Premise Sales Deterioration:** Total bev-alc dollar sales -5.4% L4W (NIQ); volume -5.8%. Wine leads declines at -8.3% dollars. Spirits -6.9%. Beer -4.7%. Prepared cocktails turn negative for first time (-0.1% dollars, -4.7% volume). IWSR full-year 2025: total U.S. volumes -5%.

- **Beer Bright Spots Amid Broad Decline:** Busch Light Apple drives ABI outperformance (+17.4% dollars). Pacifico +19.6%. Athletic Brewing +19.6% L4W dollars. Happy Dad +48.8%. Non-alcoholic beer +12.3%. Below-premium growing. Craft improving to -2.6% YTD from -5.2% full-year 2025; hyper-local brands and IPAs lead.

- **RTD Spirits Continue Surging:** Spirit-based RTDs +27.7% L4W. Sun Cruiser +143%, Cutwater +132%, Surfside +79%, BuzzBallz +23%. RTD margaritas hit $1.6B annual sales. Korean soju emerges with projected 16% CAGR through 2029.

- **Wine's Structural Reset:** $115B in spending but volume -3% to 362M cases (down 12% since 2018). DTC shipments -15% volume, -6% value. 11,107 wineries — nearly 50% more than 2012. 58% report unsold stock problems. Duckhorn realigns national distribution. Wonderful Company expands JUSTIN and Lewis Cellars through SGWS. Wine-Searcher acquired by GLX/Platin Sàrl.

- **Willamette Valley Vineyards** Q1 revenue +9.5% to $8.26M; distributor sales up but DTC declined. Net loss narrowed 22.5%.

- **Regulatory Earthquake:** Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine shipping restrictions as unconstitutional; Supreme Court petition expected by August 4. California self-distribution law challenged (Blue Sky Vineyards case, June 2 hearing). CA AB 1585 advances (100% American grapes for "American" label). NY grocery wine sales bill in committee. NC ABC reform campaign active. CORCA passes House 348-60. Hemp THC crackdown regulations effective November 2026.

- **Public Health Pressure:** Alcohol linked to 178,000 annual U.S. deaths, $240B+ economic cost. Third-leading preventable cause of cancer. Stanford study finds cancer-specific warning labels more effective. Alaska passes point-of-sale cancer warning law; Massachusetts bill introduced.

- **Pricing & Macro:** CPI +3.8% YoY. Food-at-home +3.0%. Alcohol-at-home just +0.4%; wine-at-home deflationary at -0.8%. Beer-at-home +2.2%. Average beer case price up $0.52 YTD to $31.20. Costco April sales +13% YoY; U.S. comps +11.7%.

- **Monster Beverage** Q1 blowout: FX-neutral sales +22.1% vs. +14.3% consensus. U.S. +15%. Ultra line +20%. EPS $0.58 beats by $0.05. Red Bull swings negative in latest reads; Celsius/Alani Nu maintain strong momentum.

- **Citi Sector Views:** Positive on ABI, Carlsberg, BAT, Campari. Negative on Heineken, Pernod Ricard.

- **2026 FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): Expected mid-to-high single-digit alcohol sales lift. Key beneficiaries: Michelob Ultra, Modelo, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater, White Claw, Beatbox.

- **RBC's 10 Forces Reshaping CPG:** Agentic commerce, K-shaped economy permanence, authenticity premium, longevity-focused functional beverages targeting 55+ consumers.

- **In Memoriam:** Charles R. "Chuck" Smith, longtime Pernod Ricard SVP of Sales, Remy Amerique EVP, and E&J Gallo executive, passed April 30 at age approximately 85.