The Pentagon just fired its top strategist in the middle of a war with Iran, and no replacement has been named. What could go wrong?Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's Director for Strategy, Plans and Policy (the J5). He is the second officer pushed out of that job since the administration returned. Within a day, the Pentagon's explanation went from a cordial send-off to accusations of leaking classified information and failed polygraphs, none of it publicly substantiated.Scott breaks down who Sylvia is, what the J5 actually does, and why the office responsible for stress-testing war plans and delivering bad news is so exposed right now. He also covers his predecessor's early exit, the Laura Loomer subplot, what this means for careers and candor inside the Pentagon, and how Tehran is likely reading the turmoil as the U.S. weighs renewed strikes.At the Water's Edge looks for insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner's view on national security and geopolitics.Chapters:00:00 Intro00:20 Breaking: Pentagon's top planner fired01:00 Who is Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia?02:10 Hegseth's flag officer purge02:40 S, G & J shops: how military staffs work04:20 What the J5 actually does05:35 Why was he fired? The shifting story08:05 The Laura Loomer subplot08:45 His predecessor: Lt. Gen. JP McGee09:40 Why the J5 job gets people fired12:00 DIME and the interagency13:10 An insecure Pentagon and easy answers14:10 What this does to careers inside the building17:50 Eroding institutional brakes18:35 How Iran sees it20:30 Final thoughtsIf you found this useful, follow the show and share it with someone tracking the Iran war.

Is there a way to end the war with Iran that doesn't totally suck? And where's the line between an online grifter and a foreign state running influence operations against American elections?A week out from the midterms, OSINT analyst and YouTuber Ryan McBeth joins me to break down how information warfare actually works, and why the U.S. keeps leaving its own information operations capability on the shelf.We get into bot farms used to tank stock prices, the Tenet Media case and Russian money behind American influencers, and the Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down because the contract barred criticism of China. Then we turn to Iran: whether the regime is a rational actor, whether this war makes an Iranian bomb inevitable, Ryan's plan for marching on Tehran (and why I think it breaks down in the mountain passes), and why it's easier to get approval for a drone strike than a leaflet drop.Ryan McBeth is a 20-year infantry veteran, former C4ISR software engineer, Newsmax intelligence consultant, and author of The Win Machine and the Deseret series.Find Ryan:Substack: ryanmcbeth.substack.comYouTube: @RyanMcBethProgrammingChapters:00:00 Cold open00:37 Intro01:09 Cigars, Ranger School & firefighting school07:43 Info ops ahead of the midterms08:14 How bot farms short stocks10:49 The grift economy & "decliners"12:02 Tenet Media and paid influencers16:12 The Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down19:39 The economics of military YouTube21:26 From coding interviews to Ukraine's tank turrets25:09 YouTube, Substack & Newsmax27:54 Veterans, partisanship, and finding a lane32:34 Is Iran a rational actor?37:21 Will Iran get the bomb? Containment & blockade42:06 The McBeth plan vs. the terrain46:04 Why no psyop campaign against Iran?49:43 Easier to drop a bomb than a leaflet52:43 Where to find Ryan

Israel votes on October 27 in its first national election since October 7, 2023, and the final polls show no one with a clear path to power. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition leads, Netanyahu's bloc is holding at 50 seats, and the Arab-majority parties hold the balance, even though most leaders on both sides say they won't govern with them.In this episode, Scott breaks down how Israel's coalition system works, who's running, why Netanyahu is in trouble, and what a new government would and wouldn't change for Gaza, the war with Iran, and the U.S.-Israel relationship. The face at the top may change, but the core policies on Palestinian statehood and Iran likely won't, and that leaves Washington's "Netanyahu is the problem" argument on thin ice.Recorded October 26, 2026, the day before the vote. Poll figures are from the final Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys published October 23.CHAPTERS0:00 Intro1:06 Bottom line: nobody has 61 seats2:03 How Israel's election system works3:46 The main players4:41 Final polls & the bloc math6:28 Why Netanyahu is in trouble9:04 The Arab parties: kingmakers?10:55 The catch: nobody will govern with them13:05 What it means for Palestinians14:32 Iran: expect continuity16:15 Washington & the "Netanyahu excuse"18:16 What to watch on election night19:25 Recap & closeSOURCESHaaretz: final election polls (Oct 23, 2026)Al Jazeera: The Israeli politicians seeking to replace Netanyahu (Oct 17, 2026)Moshe Dayan Center: Survey of Arab Citizens in Israel (May 2026)Reuters via Al-Monitor: Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire (Apr 13, 2026)PBS NewsHour: U.S. strikes Iranian oil tankers (Sept 5, 2026)Gaza Health Ministry figures as of Oct 24, 2026UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry: Gaza genocide finding (Sept 2025)