Final Oscar Predictions (Part 3) — Acting, Directing, Writing & Best Picture | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS

In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we conclude our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 3), breaking down the Academy Awards’ most talked-about races — Directing, Screenwriting, Acting, and Best Picture.

Pundits insist these categories are “locked,” but history says otherwise. We’re tracking the hidden vulnerabilities, surprise snubs, and late-stage breakthroughs that could define nomination morning — and help you perfect your Oscar ballot.

We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:

Best Casting

The Academy’s newest category: Will voters default to the status quo, or can two international films crash the party and make a statement?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Can anyone crack the consensus five — from Mary Shelley and Denis Johnson adaptations to Hamnet, Alien Bosses, and the ever-present PTA?

Best Original Screenplay

Richard Linklater and Ethan Hawke threaten to spoil spots long reserved for celebrated international films, while Sinnersand Marty Supreme ride undeniable momentum.

Best Supporting Actor

Beyond the perceived “safe” picks (One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value), are Paul Mescal or Jacob Elordi far more vulnerable than expected? And who’s waiting to capitalize on a major snub?

Best Supporting Actress

A volatile three-way race anchors the category, but the final slots are wide open. Can recent SAG snubs be overcome? Are surprise veterans or pop-culture wildcards ready to surge? Expect chaos.

Best Actor

The most competitive acting race of the year — and someone big is missing. Is it Michael B. Jordan or Joel Edgerton? Can Jesse Plemons convert SAG momentum? Is Wagner Moura truly safe?

Best Actress

Buckley is the clear frontrunner, while Chase Infiniti carries the category’s strongest momentum. Renate Reinsve capitalizes on European love, while Rose Byne defeats the odds. The final slot becomes a high-stakes showdown between a favorite and a comeback-gal.

Best Director

Clear locks, international threats, shocking snubs, and one potential jaw-dropper that could redefine the race entirely.

Best Picture

Studio heavyweights, Netflix contenders, acclaimed international films, and underdogs all feel “safe”… but only one slot remains. Will it go to another daring foreign-language breakout or a late-career auteur passion project?

If you want to understand where the Oscar races are actually fragile, and where the Academy is most likely to surprise, this is the episode to hear before nomination morning.

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Final Oscar Predictions — Shorts, Documentary, Sound, VFX & Makeup | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS

In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we continue our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 2), breaking down some of the Academy Awards’ most volatile categories — where surprises, snubs, and late-breaking momentum define the race.

We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:

Live-Action Short Film — socially and politically urgent stories dominate, but can comedy or crowd-pleasers break through?

Animated Short Film — why adult-driven animation should outperform traditional, family-friendly shorts

Documentary Short Film — films reflecting current U.S. political and social unrest lead the field

Documentary Feature — the most unpredictable branch of the Academy, where presumed frontrunners are always at risk

Best Visual Effects — blockbuster spectacle regains control as prestige titles like Frankenstein and Sinners miss key ground

Best Sound — One Battle After Another and Sinners feel secure, while Sirât challenges Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup & Hairstyling — why international films and transformative real-life portrayals have the advantage

Whether you’re filling out an Oscar ballot, tracking awards season momentum, or just love dissecting the Academy Awards, this episode dives deep into the races most likely to shock on nomination morning.

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• The DGA reveals the top five favorites for the Oscars Best Picture race
• SENTIMENTAL VALUE gets shutout at the Screen Actors Guild Actors Awards
• Cinematographers prefer MARTY SUPREME over HAMNET
• WEAPONS, F1 fly at the Producers Guild Awards while AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD flop
• BUGONIA staging a major Oscar comeback with impressive showing at British Academy’s BAFTA Awards
• Final predictions for Best Animated Feature
• Dreamworks’ THE BAD GUYS 2 and Pixar’s ELIO duel for final spot in Animated Feature race
• Can French animation rule at the Oscars with ARCO, LITTLE AMELIE and A MAGNIFICENT LIFE?
• Final Predictions for Best Original Score
• Decoding the connection between Best Picture and the Original Score category
• MARTY SUPREME beat too new age for Oscars’ music branch?
• F1 and SIRĀT likely enemies across Oscar categories, face-off for final slot in Original Score
• Final Predictions for Best Original Song
• Stephan Schwartz to finally get back into Song race with WICKED: FOR GOOD
• Double nominations for SINNERS for Original Song?
• Diane Warren hunts for first competitive Oscar win
• Final Predictions for Best Costume Design
• A loophole in the Costume category might leave a Best Picture favorite on the outs
• HEDDA and KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN targeting an upset
• Final Predictions for Best Production Design
• AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD duel for scraps among production design favorites
• Final Predictions for Best Cinematography
• Not enough space for Best Picture frontrunners FRANKENSTEIN, MARTY SUPREME and HAMNET
• Final Predictions for Best Film Editing
• Breaking down the “veteran” issue smothering the film editing category
• F1 to test editor’s love for racing films
• Final Predictions for Best International Film
• NEON films tries to wrap up the rare perfect category with ALL 5 nominations!
• Venice Film Festival and THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB to haunt the fate of NO OTHER CHOICE

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• MARTY SUPREME is a runaway Christmas hit for A24, Timothée Chalamet is King of the Box-Office
• Spain's SIRĀT to explode onto Oscar scene with surprise nominations, but can it really crash Best Picture?
• Will SINNERS, TRAIN DREAMS and ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER land first time nominations for their cinematographers at the ASC guild award?
• Cinematographers Guild to sideline international films in their annual lineup for Best Cinematography
• Can multiple foreign films pull off an upset at the Directors Guild of America?
• Guillermo del Toro's FRANKENSTEIN looks to cement itself as a top 5 Best Picture movie with DGA nomination
• Can MARTY SUPREME three-peat nominations at the SAG Ensemble, DGA and PGA.... or did it peak too late?
• Will the Producers Guild of America resuscitate flailing box-office hits AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD?
• WEAPONS hoping to ride Hollywood horror-renaissance into PGA Top 10 and SAG Ensemble nominations
• HEDDA's Tessa Thompson and SONG SUNG BLUE's Kate Hudson look to leap BUGONIA's Emma Stone and TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE's Amanda Seyfried at the Screen Actors Guild
• Can Wagner Moura leverage NARCOS visibility into a SAG Best Actor nomination for THE SECRET AGENT?
• Is WICKED: FOR GOOD poised to receive a complete shut-out at the Screen Actors Guild?
• HAMNET, SENTIMENTAL VALUE and IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT look for a boost on Golden Globes weekend
• Critics Choice Awards vote for Timothée Chalamet, Jesse Buckley, Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan, but one speech seems to seal the deal and another appears to have blown the race wide open!
• Which Critics Choice winning actor is flirting with a snub and may end up on the cutting room floor at the Oscars?

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• A few words of remembrance for Rob Reiner, Michelle Reiner and James Ransone.
• Can AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH pull a GODFATHER/LORD OF THE RIGNS and get all 3 installments nominated for Best Picture? Our Oscar take after watching the latest chapter.
• THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB is undeniably compelling, and could absolutely sneak into the final Best Picture Ten; our Oscar take after screening the film.
• Going over the snubs and surprises from the 98th Oscars shortlists: who’s making an impression (SIRAT!) and who’s falling behind (THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE!).
• Previewing the Critics Choice Awards: predicting the winners in every category.
• Predicting the National Society of Film Critics winners and runner-ups.

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Support the show

| Follow us on Twitter: @AcademyAnon |

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and Rose Byrne build momentum at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association
• The Critics Choice Awards snub IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT, THE SECRET AGENT and NO OTHER CHOICE in favor of Hollywood misfires JAY KELLY and WICKED: FOR GOOD
• The Golden Globes nominate five international films for Best Picture - will the Oscars follow their lead?
• Richard Linklater crashes Best Picture Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes - TWICE!
• Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt and THE SMASHING MACHINE prepare to mount a comeback at the Golden Globes
• Lee Byung-hun and NO OTHER CHOICE make Golden Globes history
• The cast of ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER ties for most Golden Globe acting nominations
• WICKED: FOR GOOD snubbed for Best Picture at the Golden Globes and officially in trouble at the Oscars
• Did A24 and Timothée Chalamet miscalculate the release of MARTY SUPREME? Film underdelivers at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes
• AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH can’t squeeze into Best Picture at either Critics Choice or Golden Globes; Is James Cameron in store for a snub at the Oscars?
• NUREMBERG fails to seize opportunity with Golden Globe nominations, are its Best Picture hopes dashed?
• Neon campaigns to make historic gains in the Oscars shortlist categories with mentions for Score, Sound, Casting, and Cinematography
• Blockbusters F1, WICKED: FOR GOOD, and AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH aim for a comeback with Oscars shortlist reveal
• SINNERS duels ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER for Oscars shortlist dominance

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• Gotham Film Awards shut out Rose Byrne and IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU, champion IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
• ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER rolling to one Best Picture prize after another with NYFCC and NBR
• Early Supporting Actress winners splintered - WEAPONS, SINNERS, SENTIMENTAL VALUE
• Wunmi Mosaku vs. Teyana Taylor for Best Supporting Actress nomination?
• Independent Spirit Awards blaze a path for TRAIN DREAMS Oscar hopes
• Are the Critics Choice nominees anything more than glorified Oscar predictions?
• Golden Globe Predictions!!!
• Can WICKED FOR GOOD hold onto its Comedy or Musical slot?
• Netflix to double down in Comedy or Musical with JAY KELLY and WAKE UP DEAD MAN
• Can Lee Byung-hun make Golden Globe history with NO OTHER CHOICE? Pull upset over Timothée Chalamet and MARTY SUPREME?
• Wagner Moura makes THE SECRET AGENT the favorite for Actor Drama - can Dwayne Johnson, Jeremy Allen White or Michael B. Jordan stop him?
• Trouble brewing for Amanda Seyfried, Rose Byrne and Emma Stone - BUGONIA, TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE and IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU hunt Globe support and Oscar appeal
• Late-breakers RENTAL FAMILY, IS THIS THING ON and SONG SUNG BLUE look to shake up the race with audience appeal and Globe endorsement
• Will AVATAR three-peat with Golden Globe Best Picture and Director nominations?
• A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE looks to redeem Kathryn Bigelow with the Golden Globes
• Jacob Elordi and Sydney Sweeney hope to continues breakout Globes streak with nominations for FRANKENSTEIN and CHRISTY
• KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN conjuring up Bill Condon's Golden Globe magic for Tonatiuh, Jennifer Lopez and Diego Luna
• SENTIMENTAL VALUE and IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT look to flex international appeal with major Globe nominations

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| Follow us on Twitter for more updates - @AcademyAnon |

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• WICKED FOR GOOD is gold at the box-office, but misfires with critics
• Did Universal's "studio greed" blow up the chances for a WICKED Best Picture Oscar win?
• Why the Oscars fate of WICKED FOR GOOD is in the hands of AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
• Cynthia Erivo vs. Ariana Grande? - WICKED FOR GOOD makes the case for co-lead status
• Historic consecutive Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress nominations in the rearview for WICKED FOR GOOD?
• The 5 nomination max - analyzing what Oscar categories are still in play for WICKED FOR GOOD
• Polarizing Gotham Film Awards to announce winners from controversial nominee lineup
• Will Warner Bros tower over indie films with record-breaking ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER at the Gotham Film Awards? We predict the favorites to win
• NYFCC - prestigious New York Film Critics Circle looks to set the tone on this year's critics' darlings with early winners list
• We predict which films and performances will triumph at NYFCC and boost their Oscar chances
• Can Paul Thomas Anderson finally nab Best Picture at the NYFCC for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER? Or is A24's MARTY SUPREME destined to spoil its hopes?

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