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The market is like a hot air balloon with a small hole in it, and the air is slowly leaking out. It’s being fuelled by:

- Interest rates rising
- Capital gains tax talk
- Negative gearing uncertainty
- Inflation numbers

Overall, this is causing buyers to drop off.

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1. Fix Approvals. Kill the Bottleneck.
2. Upzone Around Infrastructure
3. Incentivise Builders & Developers
4. Protect Mum & Dad Investors
5. Migration Reform + Skilled Trades Boost

Also, congratulations to Thomas Crawford for being awarded '2026 Boutique Independent Agency of the Year' - REB (Real Estate Business)

Thomas contacted me a couple of years ago, and he said, "Tom, I'm doing 200 sales a year. I want to do half. I want to get closer to my family, lose 20 kilos."

He sent me a text message the other day. He's done all of that and made 215 sales in the last 12 months 👏🏻

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If the capital gains discount is cut, here’s how it'll unfold:

• Investors make less when they sell
• Many delay selling to avoid the tax hit
• Listings drop
• Turnover slows
• Stamp duty falls
• Rental supply tightens

And when supply tightens?

Rents go up.

This isn’t theory. It’s demand and supply.

And here’s the part no one wants to say out loud 📢

75% of investors own ONE property. They’re not tycoons in Mykonos. They’re nurses, teachers, small business owners negatively gearing with the hope of one future payday.

If you change one lever without increasing supply, you don’t fix housing.

You freeze it.

One lever policy in a multi-layered crisis creates unintended consequences. Migration needs alignment. Construction needs acceleration. Trades need support.

Because if investors stop selling and supply shrinks, the people who wear it first are tenants.

And they’re already stretched.

Think carefully about this

Property doesn’t operate in isolation. It’s an ecosystem.