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Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged Audiobook
- Categories: Business & Careers, Career Success
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This did not make me think again
- By Amanda P on 31-07-21
Summary
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10 percent on the strategy that works 90 percent of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and even rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
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What listeners say about Thinking in Bets
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- WG
- 16-04-18
Actionable advice between some awkward padding
Thinking in Bets contains a multitude of actionable advice with which to make real changes to the ways we think about decisions and future planning. It makes very clear the benefits to be gained from acknowledging the way your mind works, through a comprehensive review of several concepts within the fields of behavioural psychology and decision economics. By simply taking the view of life as a game of poker, decisions can be made in more robust, rational, and healthy ways. Between the many useful pointers however there were a few areas where the same points were repeated or longer was spent on a particular topic than perhaps was necessary for concision. This detracted slightly from an otherwise very useful book. Recommended for those looking for useful ways to restructure the way we think about decisions
5 people found this helpful
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- Spiky Potplant
- 08-12-19
Make decisions by thinking in bets
This isn't a bad business book but it isn't a great one either. It's well written, the narration is easy on the ear (unlike many), it isn't too dry or boring, and suitable evidence is presented. However, it's too long for the material covered/audiobook format. If you've read a lot of business strategy or decision making books, or done scenario planning or imagine the future type activities then this way of thinking won't be new but the book does frame things very nicely.
I think this is one of those books where I would try a podcast/interview with the author because that's probably going to give you the main points of the book.
3 people found this helpful
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- Rory Clifford
- 01-07-21
That was a real struggle
I've listened to so many Audiobooks, I've learnt so much, taken in so much and can honestly say that was just dreary. I'm not sure if it's her voice, the constant repetition, the nonsensical way of thinking or me!
The only thing I remember was the constant reminder of the awful bit of play in America Football, even then my mind went elsewhere...
2 people found this helpful
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- Anonymous User
- 07-04-18
Excellent
Excellent book with a ground breaking thought process, already using it for my day trading.
1 person found this helpful
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- Amazon Customer
- 03-04-18
Simply stated meaningful guidance
Whilst much of the advice in this book looks obvious with hindsight bias, the level of self knowledge needed to get the most out of this excellent book will tell you that it isn’t.
Thinking in bets is a great way to narrow the uncertainty window we know we can never elongate in a dynamic world.
1 person found this helpful
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- Chris Cox
- 15-03-18
Absolutely dire, avoid at all costs.
I downloaded Thinking in Bets expecting to listen to an interesting take on decision making in the personal and professional world from the perspective of a high stakes poker player. If you’re thinking the same let me save you seven hours and an Audible credit.
Uncertainty is a thing.
Sometimes things work out.
Sometimes things don’t work out.
Complete and utter bilge. Avoid at all costs.
7 people found this helpful
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- Anonymous User
- 14-04-21
Excellent and very implementable
You can see how your decision making can be easily flawed and how you can increase the probability of making better decisions by following her process.
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- PAUL
- 28-03-21
Transformative - a must read.
Bias costs us - some great ways to intervene. Backcasting (positive Future) and premortems (negative future) are transforming my strategic planning. Thanks Annie.
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- JEA
- 23-01-21
Timing to listen to this book was perfect
Redefined the way i approach my career planning and took so many notes along the way!
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- Kindle Customer
- 14-11-20
fantastic and actionable book.
Incredible and very insightful book. Many actionable takeaways and very interesting to listen to and ponder over and likely summarise and write about. I especially enjoyed the forwards projection both in the positive and negative version of it.
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- Amazon Customer
- 03-12-18
A meeting that could have been an email
This is a really important and interesting book but it's unnecessarily long.
The concepts in this book would make an amazing ten-minute video or a really long blog post but as a book, it's stretching things out for the sake of it.
26 people found this helpful
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- Marcus Bircher
- 09-02-18
Great insights on improving decision making
Found out about this book via Michael Mauboussin discussing it on twitter - a highly credible source on decision making material - and the book did not disappoint.
'Think like a bettor. Think less about whether we are confident or not and more about how confident we are.'
Few key concepts that I think this book nailed:
Importance of accurate outcome analysis rather than 'resulting' and drawing too tight of a relationship between outcome quality and decision quality in a very uncertain world in which almost everything is a result of a combination of both luck and skill.
Biases she explains greatly - motivated reasoning, hindsight bias, self serving bias, internal conflicts of interest, knowing outcome when analyzing decision, temporal discounting + more.
Making decisions via explicit bets - thinking through wanna bet lens to better recognize there is always a level of uncertainty. Leads to tempering our statements as we stop to quantify the level of risk in our statements/beliefs which ultimately leads us closer to the truth.
Short term vs long term thinking - overestimating impact of momentary events on our happiness leads to irrational and emotional thinking which can degrade the quality of our bets and increase chance of bad outcome. Love the insight on the importance of this concept as she touches on temporal discounting, emotional decision making, and importance of accessing our past and future selves to put in the moment events in better perspective.
-Marcus
46 people found this helpful
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- ❤️One.Crazy&Cool.Family❤️
- 04-09-18
Wasn't For Me
3 hours and it's nothing new if you're familiar with behavioral economics. For a more interesting listen I'd recommend Charles Duhigg's "Smarter Faster Better" which briefly touches on Annie Duke's story while driving home many of the key points of probabilistic thinking better.
90 people found this helpful
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- H. Miller
- 05-08-18
Great book for people looking to challenge the way they think
If you like to convince yourself you're right most of the time, you need this book... And you won't like it.
Great book looking at the ways we delude ourselves into bad decisions, and shows ways you can get better at that. Some good stories and anecdotes, and thoughtful discussion of ways to teach yourself how to make better decisions.
Tied in very well with another book I'm reading on behavioral economics.
Would have liked a few more concrete examples tied into the discussion, but I really enjoyed and thought was valuable. You should read it.
12 people found this helpful
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- Patrick Britton
- 14-04-18
would have been 5 stars but too much poker
in short, the book is fantastic and definitely worth the read. I was a little put off by the massive number of Poker references and quite frankly, almost called it quits after the first few chapters. If you power through all of that stuff, it gets particularly good towards the end. In fact, the two last chapters are by far the very best.
I realize the author was a professional poker player but she Begins the book stating that it is not about poker. you will question the statement as you go through the first few chapters.
I've read a lot of books similar to this and I have to say that this one has thus far had the greatest impact on my day-to-day decision-making by a long shot.
12 people found this helpful
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- Soheil
- 04-07-18
Required reading for all traders
Of all the books I have read, this book has made the most impact on my trading results. It takes a concept presented by Mark Douglas in Trading in the Zone and crystallizes it. For everyone who seeks certainty in trading and investing, this is a must read.
10 people found this helpful
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- Adam
- 20-08-18
AHHHG this book is so crazy good.
It's narrated by the author who knows what she's talking about, doesn't pull punches, backs up her positions and does it all concisely with excellent examples and detailed discussions about how to analyze potential decisions. It should be required reading for anyone who ever has to decide anything.
7 people found this helpful
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- Steven
- 22-02-18
Want to bet you will enjoy this book.
Would you listen to Thinking in Bets again? Why?
Yes, because I want to hear the many ideas and suggestions by Ms. Duke I missed the first time.
What did you like best about this story?
Ms. Duke takes complex areas of behavior science, decision making processes, and the pursuit of truth and couples those principles of sciences to the methods used by a professional poker player.
What about Annie Duke’s performance did you like?
Calm, upbeat, friendly narration.
Did you have an extreme reaction to this book? Did it make you laugh or cry?
I immediately locked into the theme of the book because of my experience as a professional and an amateur card player.
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- C. Veloso
- 21-08-18
The functional version of Thinking Fast And Slow
Easily digestible. Immediately applicable. Information was not sacrificed for brevity. Not too long like Kahneman’s book.
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- Amazon Customer
- 15-02-20
Worthless
Taught me nothing and have no idea what the point if the book was . It was all over the place and had no direction
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