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The Primacy of Doubt

From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World

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Why does your weather app say “there’s a 10 percent chance of rain” instead of “it will be sunny”? In large part, this is due to the insight of award-winning physicist Tim Palmer, who pioneered the introduction of uncertainty into weather and climate prediction.

Now, he wants to apply it to how we study everything else.

In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer gives us a revolutionary vision of mathematical uncertainty that provides new insights into a range of practical problems and some of the deepest questions in science and philosophy. He draws connections that are in equal parts unexpected and fascinating: how ensemble forecasts can predict unpredictability, how the brain uses noise for creative thinking, how the geometry of chaos forces us to rewrite the laws of quantum mechanics, and in so doing reconciles determinism, free will, and moral responsibility.

A tour de force from a brilliant mind, The Primacy of Doubt shows that the fundamental law of the universe might just be to expect the unexpected.

©2022 Tim Palmer (P)2022 Recorded Books Career Success Decision-Making & Problem Solving Mathematics Physics Science Career Climate Change Science
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The Primacy of Doubt is an intriguing book which covers a lot of ground. I expect different parts will appeal quite differently to different people. Personally I found Part 1 excellent, Part 2 a little weaker and unfocused. I didn't get much out of the more speculative Part 3.

I think Palmer is fundamentally correct about the importance of ensembles and support his call for a more structured 'CERN' type approach to replace today's ensemble of opportunity wrt to climate modelling.

The Primacy of Doubt is an intriguing book...

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