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The Calm Before the Storm

Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa

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The Calm Before the Storm

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton
Narrated by: Kevin Stillwell
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About this listen

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

©2015 Foreign Affairs (P)2015 Audible, Inc. Political Science Politics & Government Social Sciences
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It's a good overview of economic fragility of countries but it is brief and does not go in depth for risk

Good short story

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I found it interesting and educational as it helped me see things a different way in terms of relative stability of countries, and their ability to deal with major incidents. Thought provoking.

Interesting little essay

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This audio essay explores the structural ingredients of national stability - economic viability, religious variability, decentralised governance, and tolerance for dissenting views. It argues that fragility emerges when a country is over-leveraged, economically mono-dimensional, or socially intolerant, and brews slowly through systemic imbalances etc. The narrative draws from a wide range of examples: Greece, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Russia, China, Japan, India, France, Italy, and more. An engaging listen for anyone interested in the patterns beneath political volatility.

Short, insightful, and packed with perspective

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Clear & concise. I will definitely be looking further into Nassim's works. This offers a good starting point. These are strange & confusing times to be alive & while I am a pacifist at heart, it can make it difficult to understand the nature of growth in society from perspectives outside of this point of view. Nassim's perspectives from historical tendencies & philosophical nature offer a much welcomed way of grasping concepts that all too often feel too large (for me) to understand.

It's a port in a storm & I shall definitely be exploring the territory of his works for furthering my investigations. I believe it's better to be informed that a person can make an executive decision, regardless of where the decision takes you. This is a synopsis & therefore won't give you answers to life, the universe & everything, but offers some useful tidbits that encourages further research. At the very least, it's helping me feel less like I'm being swept along with the tide.

Another piece of the puzzle

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Taleb's signature brand of thought-provoking contrarianism, this time focused on dissecting conventional notions of what constitutes stability and instability.

Worth a listen.

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