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The Calm Before the Storm

Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa

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The Calm Before the Storm

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton
Narrated by: Kevin Stillwell
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Summary

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

©2015 Foreign Affairs (P)2015 Audible, Inc. Political Science Politics & Government Social Sciences
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It's a good overview of economic fragility of countries but it is brief and does not go in depth for risk

Good short story

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I found it interesting and educational as it helped me see things a different way in terms of relative stability of countries, and their ability to deal with major incidents. Thought provoking.

Interesting little essay

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This audio essay explores the structural ingredients of national stability - economic viability, religious variability, decentralised governance, and tolerance for dissenting views. It argues that fragility emerges when a country is over-leveraged, economically mono-dimensional, or socially intolerant, and brews slowly through systemic imbalances etc. The narrative draws from a wide range of examples: Greece, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Russia, China, Japan, India, France, Italy, and more. An engaging listen for anyone interested in the patterns beneath political volatility.

Short, insightful, and packed with perspective

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Interesting and well narrated. Highly recommended listen for anyone curious, wanting an overview of the proposed mechanisms of political and economic fragility with examples discussed

Interesting & thought provoking

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This was a blessing to listen to. It really describes how things pan out. Which can help guide for more successful outcome

Wow, Great Help

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