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Prophecy

Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI
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Prophecy

By: Carissa Véliz
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About this listen

 From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies—the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the products foisted upon us.

Today’s computer scientists play the same role as the oracles of the ancient world and the astrologers of the Middle Ages. Modern predictions not only advise on war, crop output, and marriages, but algorithms and statisticians also now determine whether we can get a loan, a job, an apartment, or an organ transplant. And when we cede ground to these predictions, we lose control of our own lives.

In this powerful, refreshing new look at the many ways prediction shapes our everyday lives, University of Oxford professor Carissa Véliz explains how putting too much stock in others’ predictions makes us vulnerable to charlatans, con artists, dubious technology, and self-deception. Examining a wide range of subjects both personal and societal, including medicine, climate, technology, society, and others, Véliz uncovers a number of insights: predictions about humans tend to be self-fulfilling; more data doesn’t guarantee better outcomes; AI is more likely to increase risk than decrease it; and a free and robust society requires not more prediction, but better preparation.

Véliz argues in this incisive and bracingly original book that the main promise of prediction is not knowledge of the future, but rather power over others. Prophecy is an invitation to defy those orders and live life on our own terms. History & Philosophy Philosophy Politics & Government Science Social Sciences Society

Critic reviews

"A masterpiece. Prophecy exposes the biggest trick powerful people use to get what they want—and they've been pulling it off for the longest time. Big tech's AI predictions are the power plays in disguise of the ancient oracles and medieval astrologers. Delightfully written, refreshingly original, and masterfully argued for, Prophecy lifts the veil on our forecasting practices. Prophecy is the most important book you will read for years.”
—Roger McNamee, New York Times bestselling author of Zucked

“This is a book that will make you see the world quite differently—while also eliciting gasps of recognition. Passionate, erudite and punchy, Prophecy will linger long in the memory.”
—Tim Harford, author of The Data Detective

“The world runs on predictions, and it always has. Readable and rigorous, Prophecy uncovers how predictions have shaped our lives from ancient Greece to the new oracles of AI, often acting as the avatars of hidden (or not so hidden) power. Written with verve, acuity, and humour, this is essential reading for the times we live in.”
—Anil Seth, author of Being You
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