Everything Is Predictable cover art

Everything Is Predictable

How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World

 Preview
Get this deal Try Premium Plus free
Offer ends December 16, 2025 11:59pm GMT.
Prime members: New to Audible? Get 2 free audiobooks during trial.
Just £0.99/mo for your first 3 months of Audible.
1 bestseller or new release per month—yours to keep.
Listen all you want to thousands of included audiobooks, podcasts, and Originals.
Auto-renews at £8.99/mo after 3 months. Cancel monthly.
Pick 1 audiobook a month from our unmatched collection - including bestsellers and new releases.
Listen all you want to thousands of included audiobooks, Originals, celeb exclusives, and podcasts.
Access exclusive sales and deals.
£8.99/month after 30 days. Renews automatically.

Everything Is Predictable

By: Tom Chivers
Narrated by: Tom Chivers
Get this deal Try Premium Plus free

£8.99/mo after 3 months. Cancel monthly. Offer ends December 16, 2025 11:59pm GMT.

£8.99/month after 30 days. Renews automatically. See here for eligibility.

Buy Now for £12.99

Buy Now for £12.99

About this listen

 SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024

'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting . . . I finished it not only better informed about a captivating branch of mathematics, but with an invigorating sense of greater purchase on the world' OLIVER BURKEMAN

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.©2024 Tom Chivers (P)2024 Orion Publishing Group Limited Mathematics Professionals & Academics Science & Technology Programming Technology Human Brain Computer Science

Listeners also enjoyed...

 Bernoulli's Fallacy cover art
The Scaling Era cover art
Superforecasting cover art
Naked Statistics cover art
The Book of Why cover art
How to Create a Mind cover art
Data Science for Business cover art
Vibe Coding cover art
Complexity cover art
Free Agents cover art
Complexity cover art
The Great Mental Models cover art
The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy cover art
Algorithms to Live By cover art
Our Mathematical Universe cover art

Critic reviews

From assessing the effectiveness of treatments, to the way consciousness works and the way we make decisions, Tom Chivers makes a compelling case that Bayes' Theorem is the one formula that everyone should understand (ANANYO BHATTACHARYA)
All stars
Most relevant
Excellent detail, very interesting and a great introduction to this topic for the non statistician. A great overview with lovely real life examples.

A very informative, easy to listen to book on bayesian theory.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
Everything’s Predictable is a masterclass in making the complex intelligible. Tom Chivers brings his signature wit and clarity to a topic often wrapped in jargon—showing us not just how prediction works, but why it matters in everything from gambling to government policy. Whether you’re a statistics nerd or just prediction-curious, Chivers makes concepts like Bayesian reasoning and model uncertainty feel not only understandable, but exciting. It's rare to find a book that’s both intellectually rigorous and genuinely fun—this is one of them.

A Brilliantly Accessible Dive into the World of Prediction and Probability

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
A book I took off the shelf thinking it was a self improvement book with a good colourful cover, not knowing it was best science book of the year nominee. As soon as I got out of the book store, I went to a park, spent 3 hours with a calculator, reading the introduction with excitement. Then got the audiobook, given it was read by the author, the pauses and intonation really reflects the emotions when it was written, so I laughed at various occasions. Good book. If you are not at all interested in real world applications of statistics and statistics applied to life, at least read the intro, that was very very interesting:)

I hope this review shapes your posterior probability on this being a good book :)

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
It was alright, I made it through to the end which says something. But that doesn't mean I'd recommend it.

If you like he's previous stuff, you'd probably like this. He's an intelligent person, and he can speak and convey about vastly deep concepts in a way that makes complete sense, which is a credit to him. But yeah, meh.

Meh.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
Bayesianism bubbles away in scientific YT channels and pops up here and there. I found this deep dive into it very compelling, finishing the audio book in two days. I won't pretend I understood every word or every example at first pass (had to regularly pause, google, think, give up a few times, and I'm an post grad Aeronautical Engineer ffs🤦‍♂️), but overall it is a great analysis of the subject and presented in a very entertaining (ie, dry-British) style!!

Challenging and rewarding

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
See more reviews