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Escape from Model Land

How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It

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About this listen

 How do mathematical models shape our world - and how can we harness their power for good?

Models are at the centre of everything we do. Whether we use them or are simply affected by them, they act as metaphors that help us better understand the increasingly complex problems facing us in the modern world. Without models, we couldn't begin to tackle three of the major challenges facing modern society: regulation of the economy, climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet in recent years, the validity of the models we use has been hotly debated and there has been renewed awareness of the disastrous consequences when the makers and interpreters of models get things wrong.

Drawing on contemporary examples from finance, climate and health policy, Erica Thompson explores what models are, why we need them, how they work and what happens when they go wrong. This is not an audiobook that argues we should do away with models, but rather, that we need to properly understand how they are constructed - and how some of the assumptions that underlie the models we use can have significant unintended consequences. Unexpectedly humorous, thought-provoking and passionate, this is essential listening for everyone.

(P) 2022 Hodder & Stoughton Limited©2022 Erica Thompson Mathematics Political Science Politics & Government Science Thought-Provoking Witty

Critic reviews

A brilliant account of how models are so often abused and of how they should be used (John Kay)
A wise, lucid and compelling guide to how mathematical modelling shapes our world. Dr Thompson teaches us how to go from being unthinking consumers of models to sophisticated users, combining a rich variety of vivid examples and case studies with deep conceptual expertise (Stian Westlake, CEO, Royal Statistical Society)
Demystifies the process of making the mathematical models that are increasingly used to make decisions about our lives . . . A thought-provoking and helpful guide for data scientists and decision makers alike (Stephanie Hare, author of TECHNOLOGY IS NOT NEUTRAL)
Carefully researched and beautifully written . . . For an open-minded reader keen to expose, understand and potentially reconstruct their own worldview, Escape from Model Land is, at the same time, an uncomfortable and uplifting read. It shines a gentle light on many of our own norms and beliefs (Kevin Anderson)
An eye-opening account . . . Thompson offers a host of lessons . . . The result is a thoughtful, convincing look at how data works (Publisher's Weekly)
Brilliant . . . a highly engaging work of popular science (E&T Magazine)
[A] healthy realism about data, algorithms and their limitations . . . Thompson asks data scientists to be conscious of the choices and values in a model's design . . . [offering] the basis for a constructive agenda (The Economist)
Data, computing power, AI, and the models that use them will continue to proliferate. The wisdom, life experience, and humility to make the best use of those powerful tools will remain scarce. This delightfully wide-ranging book offers heaps of the latter to help us generate genuine insights from the former (Charles J. Wheelan, bestselling author of NAKED STATISTICS)
Offers a contemplative, densely encapsulated summary of her reflection and research . . . it's up to us to learn from models without being drawn in by their seductive elegance, and to ensure that the lessons from Model Land find substantive expression where it actually matters: in our messy, material, magnificent world (Wall Street Journal)
All stars
Most relevant
A great debate about the moral judgements and bias we all have to be conscious of when making choices that effect others.

Very interesting!

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Whole book is about how we should not diagnose the world or think we understand the world using models and then proceeds to lecture about climate change, a science wholly based on models. Also let the cat out of bag regarding climate protection funds…or bonds…or whatever you prefer to call them. Overtly smug and arrogant whilst trying hard not to be arrogant. Worth a listen, if only to be reminded about every thing wrong with science and governance today.

Confusing Contradictions

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Original and insightful take on an often complex subject. Superbly narrated. Highly recommended to layman & expert Alike.

Insightful,

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There is no "escape" from model land with this author. Having briefly set out why models are no better than their input, she still accept the output as something which ought to be used to decide political actions costing vast amounts of money, even though models are unreliable (I know, I used them throughout my career).

She puts the blame for wrong actions not the model or modeller, but on politicians and the media,

So if you think that Neil Ferguson (who had a dreadful modelling record even before Covid) was not to blame for stupid decisions during Covid , go ahead and see how her colleague has been "unfairly" maligned.

The author is utterly stuck in model land. She mistakes computer models for real lfe.

The narrator is clear and concise, but lacks gravitas.

More politics than science

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