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China

The Bubble That Never Pops

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About this listen

The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, the factories fated for bankruptcy.

Banks drowning in bad loans. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. Industrial zones stalked by zombie firms. Trade tariffs blocking the path to global markets. And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, international influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.

Thomas Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade in Beijing, turns the spotlight on China's fragile fundamentals and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with communist cadres, shadow bankers, and migrant workers, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China's past, present, and possible futures.

Mapping possible scenarios, Orlik games out what will happen if the bubble that never pops finally does. The magnitude of the shock to China and the world would be tremendous. For those in the West nervously watching China's rise as a geopolitical challenger, the alternative could be even less palatable.

©2020 Oxford University Press (P)2021 Tantor Asia Economic Conditions Economics International Politics & Government World China Taxation Banking Capitalism Socialism
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Besides the scaremongering about Chinese government debt, which is ridiculous since a government can't run out of the currency it prints, this is an excellent book about the Chinese banking system.

Rubbish first page, otherwise excellent.

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China's totalitarian government has had a remarkable success rate in the past few decades in averting large-scale and protracted economic crises. Orlik makes a compelling case that they may not be able to do so forever.

This is heavy-weight economic analysis of the past 40 years of Chinese history that is surprisingly readable and manages to avoid getting bogged down in reams of bewildering statistics. It's also very even-handed, managing to be blunt about the scale of China's problems and the inherent limitations of it's autocratic system, while also bearing in mind its strengths and the sometimes surprising flexibility its governing class has managed to achieve, It's hard to have a neutral perspective on a regime that commits so much evil, and I appreciate Orlik's attempts to do so.

Narrator is fine.

Fair-minded economic analysis of modern China

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