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Wharf Talk: Port Selection Special

Wharf Talk: Port Selection Special

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Thursday selection special for Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Round 19. JB breaks down all the news that has changed since Tuesday's review: Shai Bolton confirmed out through management, Mason Cox retaining the ruck ahead of a fit but omitted Sean Darcy, and Port Adelaide losing Zak Butters to surgery, Mitch Georgiades to concussion protocols and Jason Horne-Francis to suspension. Balyn O'Brien is set to debut for Port, Miles Bergman is moving into the midfield, and Willem Drew could captain the side with Connor Rozee still absent. JB runs the predicted Fremantle 22 with the key line-ball calls defended, breaks down why the Cox over Darcy decision makes sense right now, and explains what Bolton's replacement actually needs to deliver without trying to replicate what Bolton does. Key matchups covered: Josh Treacy against Aliir Aliir and what entry quality decides that contest; Caleb Serong against a heavily burdened Willem Drew; the Bolton replacement against debutant Balyn O'Brien; and why Luke Jackson floating around Jordon Sweet may matter more than the opening bounce battle. Squiggle projects Fremantle to win 77 to 60 with a 68.1 percent average win probability across models, but Port holds a 10.7 point home-ground advantage at Adelaide Oval and their record of making Fremantle uncomfortable at that venue keeps this from being a formality. Three things to watch Saturday: whether Cox justifies the selection call by denying Port clean stoppage exits; whether Bolton's replacement generates enough forward pressure to stop Port walking out uncontested; and how Port configures its reshuffled midfield and whether Fremantle can expose those unfamiliar combinations under repeated transition pressure.
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