On February 28, 2026, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated, an event that shocked the region and raised significant questions about Iran’s operational security. While his death is undeniably significant, the Islamic Republic survives his assassination, though it emerges considerably weakened, particularly given prior leadership losses and ongoing military and infrastructure degradation.

Dr. Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, joined us to discuss the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, examining how he was targeted, the operational security failures that made it possible, and what his death means for Iran’s internal stability and the future of its nuclear program. He explores the broader escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the limits of support from allies like China and Russia, and the potential consequences for Iranian society if the regime falls. Finally, he addressed Canada’s diplomatic positioning, including Prime Minister Carney’s statements, balancing support for US actions with domestic and bilateral considerations, and the practical limits of Canada’s influence in the conflict.

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The CDA Institute is a non-partisan think tank that conducts research and education programming on defence and security.

The CDA Institute is a non-partisan think tank that conducts research and education programming on defence and security.

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