Post Budget Reactions - Is India market sliding further?
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About this listen
Wall Street closed Friday in the red, with the Dow, S&P five hundred and Nasdaq all slipping as investors reacted to President Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair and repriced interest-rate expectations.
The standout global story was a historic crash in precious metals, with gold and especially silver suffering one of their worst single-day declines in decades as the US Dollar surged and leveraged positions unwound.
US sector and stock performance was mixed, with mega-cap tech like Apple holding up relatively better, while high-beta and rate-sensitive pockets bore the brunt of risk-off sentiment.
Indian ADRs for Infosys, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Reliance all ended lower overnight, signaling continued foreign risk aversion and reflecting concerns over rupee weakness and derivatives-tax changes back home.
Across Asia, indices showed a split screen: Japan’s Nikkei held firm in positive territory, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite slipped on dollar strength, commodities volatility and renewed worries around global growth.
Gift Nifty turned higher and now trades around twenty-four thousand eight hundred eighty-eight, up roughly one hundred points, hinting at a steadier and slightly positive start for the Nifty after Sunday’s sharp post-Budget sell-off.
Globally, markets are watching the Warsh-led Fed outlook, the stronger dollar, and evolving US–India trade and energy ties, including Trump’s push for India to source more oil from alternative suppliers like Venezuela.
At home, the Union Budget’s surprise hike in Securities Transaction Tax on F&O trades sparked a nearly two percent crash in Nifty and a spike in India VIX, as traders reassessed the higher cost of leverage and hedging.
RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged, with fiscal consolidation and capex push from the Budget providing a long-term positive backdrop even as near-term volatility remains elevated.
Technically, Nifty now faces strong resistance in the twenty-five thousand to twenty-five thousand one hundred zone, while immediate support lies around twenty-four thousand seven hundred, making today’s price action crucial for short-term trend confirmation.
Bank Nifty is holding relatively better, with key supports in the upper fifty-eight thousand range and upside confirmation only if it can reclaim levels closer to fifty-nine thousand five hundred.
Crude oil has corrected meaningfully, which is a tailwind for India’s import bill, but the same stronger dollar that hit gold and silver also poses headwinds for the rupee and imported inflation.
The episode emphasizes risk management for traders: volatility post-Budget and around global macro shifts calls for controlled position sizing, disciplined stop-losses and a focus on high-liquidity large caps.
The show wraps with a reminder that today’s opening tone is cautiously optimistic rather than outright fearful, thanks to the rebound in Gift Nifty, and invites listeners to tune in to the evening wrap and send in their questions for deeper market discussions.