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Welcome to Episode 26 of Wrestling the Octopus IBD!

After 10 years studying IBD patients in remission, the first results from the PREdiCCt study have now been published - and it's essential reading: https://gut.bmj.com/content/early/2026/01/19/gutjnl-2025-337846

Nigel and I took the opportunity to sit down with Nathan Constantine-Cooke, a postdoctoral researcher from the University of Edinburgh and inflammatory bowel disease patient himself, to unpack these interesting first results from the UK's largest observational study on IBD flares.

Follow Nathan Constantine-Cooke on X/Twitter: @ibdnathan

With 2,629 patients recruited across 49 UK hospitals, the PREdiCCt study followed people in remission to understand what actually causes flares - and the findings challenge some long-held assumptions about gut health.

Key Takeaways

Calprotectin Matters - Even When You Feel Fine The study's most striking finding: faecal calprotectin strongly predicts flares even in patients feeling well. Clear separation emerged between three groups - below 50, 50-250, and above 250. The message for patient-centred care? Lower is better. Some patients had calprotectin levels above 2,500 while feeling completely fine, yet were at much higher risk of flaring. This reinforces the importance of treat-to-target approaches that prioritise biomarkers alongside symptom control.

Diet Does Matter - But It's Complicated Surprisingly, the study found different results for Crohn's disease versus ulcerative colitis:

• Ulcerative colitis patients: Higher meat consumption (including fish) linked to increased objective flare risk
• Crohn's disease patients: No significant meat association found
• No consistent links: Ultra-processed foods, fibre, alcohol and fats didn't show the expected connections to flares across either condition

These findings suggest a more nuanced approach to dietary advice in inflammatory bowel disease, moving away from one-size-fits-all recommendations.

Gender Differences Uncovered Women were more likely to report subjective flares. New research reveals pre-menopausal women showed higher calprotectin levels in remission, with irregular menstrual cycles and increased rectal bleeding during periods associated with patient-reported flares - crucial insights often overlooked in IBD care.

What This Means for You

As Nathan emphasises, medication remains paramount - diet modifications are supplementary, not substitutes. But for the first time, IBD patients have robust, evidence-based guidance on modifiable lifestyle factors that might influence our disease course.

Coming Soon: Additional papers examining psychosocial factors, genetics, microbiome data and women's health factors promise even deeper insights into personalised IBD management.

Listen now to understand how biomarker monitoring and thoughtful dietary choices could help you take more control of your gut health journey.

Follow Rachel at @bottomlineibd

Follow Nigel at @crohnoid