Episodes

  • 135 - Is China the Kingmaker in Myanmar’s Civil War?

    135 - Is China the Kingmaker in Myanmar’s Civil War?
    Feb 10 2026
    Once hailed as a beacon of democratic reform in Southeast Asia, Myanmar has devolved into a fractured state defined by a brutal, multi-front civil war following the 2021 military coup. The Junta clings to power in the central cities through terror and forced conscription, while a patchwork of resistance forces controls the periphery but struggles with donor fatigue and ammunition shortages. Yet, following the shockwaves of Operation 1027 and the rise of a narcotics-and-scam-fueled war economy, the conflict has shifted. China, the region’s hesitant kingmaker, is now applying direct pressure on both sides to secure its strategic access to the Indian Ocean. With the country effectively split and neither side possessing the strength to deliver a knockout blow, the question remains: is Myanmar destined to fracture like Yugoslavia, or can a unified state still emerge from the ashes? Our panel of experts examines the stalled frontlines, Beijing’s evolving strategy, and the grim reality of who, if anyone, can actually govern the nation in 2026. On the panel this week: - Zachary Abuza (National Defence University) - Derek Mitchell (CSIS) - Jason Tower (GI-TOC) - Steve Ross (Stimson Center) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 02:15 PART II - 34:55 PART III - 1:01:52 PART IV - 1:15:09 Outro - 135:15 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 48 mins
  • 134 - How Important are Strategic Bombers in 2025?

    134 - How Important are Strategic Bombers in 2025?
    Sep 8 2025
    Once the spearhead of Allied victory in World War II and the backbone of nuclear deterrence in the early Cold War, strategic bombers are often dismissed today as relics of a bygone era. Yet three powers, the United States, Russia, and China, continue to field formidable bomber fleets. Washington employs them for precision strikes in contested airspace across the globe, Moscow for launching missile salvos into theatres like Syria and Ukraine, and Beijing as a key secondary strike asset. Now, with all three preparing to unveil next-generation platforms that promise capabilities well beyond their current fleets, the question is clear: how will these aircraft shape the battlefields of 2025, and which nation will bring its new bomber to the skies first? Our panel of experts examines the evolving role of strategic bombers and what these upcoming platforms could mean for the balance of power in the air. On the panel this week: - Col. David Gordon (United States Air Force) - Valeriy Akimenko (Conflict Studies Research Centre) - Bill Sweetman (Airpower Consultant) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:01 PART II - 27:40 PART III - 46:40 Outro - 1:02:27 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 13 mins
  • 133 - Wargaming: A Turkish Invasion of Northern Cyprus

    133 - Wargaming: A Turkish Invasion of Northern Cyprus
    Jul 31 2025
    Cyprus sits at a persistent impasse, divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish-backed administration in the north. Despite decades of negotiations, reunification remains elusive, and the island has quietly become one of the most militarised borders in Europe, patrolled by UN peacekeepers, flanked by British bases, and overshadowed by tens of thousands of Turkish troops. While Ankara now frames Cyprus as a lower strategic priority, its military presence on the island remains substantial, and recent tensions over gas exploration and border infrastructure suggest the status quo may be more fragile than it appears. So why does Turkey still maintain such a significant footprint in Northern Cyprus? How stable is the current arrangement? And what would happen if a local incident triggered a wider escalation? To unpack these questions and assess the island’s geopolitical future, we turn to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - James Ker-Lindsay (Kent University) - Rich Outzen (The Atlantic Council) - Matthew Bryza (Straife) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:27 PART II - 26:10 PART III - 46:03 Outro - 57:25 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 9 mins
  • 132 - Abkhazia: Client or Catalyst?

    132 - Abkhazia: Client or Catalyst?
    Jul 2 2025
    Abkhazia stands at a critical juncture, caught between its historical dependence on Russia and the uncertain allure of reconciliation with Georgia. Long overshadowed by Moscow's influence, recent years have seen the territory's population increasingly frustrated with Russia's heavy-handed presence, just as Tbilisi tentatively begins exploring pathways to re-engagement. Could growing anti-Russian sentiment signal a geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus? Will Abkhazia tilt back toward Georgia, upsetting decades of frozen conflict dynamics? And why, despite mounting tensions and economic costs, does Moscow remain committed to maintaining its grip on this disputed strip of Black Sea coastline? To unpack these questions and understand the future of Abkhazia, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Laura Linderman (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute) - Beka Bajelidze (Institute for War and Peace) - Thomas de Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:49 PART II - 30:49 PART III - 1:00:15 Outro - 1:21:46 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAusSupport the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 32 mins
  • 131 - Who Controls Eastern Congo?

    131 - Who Controls Eastern Congo?
    May 27 2025
    The last few years have seen a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with Rwandan-backed militias advancing in North Kivu, Ugandan forces launching cross-border operations, and Western powers quietly increasing their presence in the region. What was once considered a forgotten conflict is now emerging as a new front in the global competition for influence, driven not just by security concerns, but by the region’s immense mineral wealth, critical for everything from electric vehicles to modern electronics. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to unpack who actually controls eastern Congo, why this strip of land has become so strategically valuable to outside powers, and how the local conflict is fast becoming a global contest between rival blocs. On the panel this week: - Hugh Kinsella Cunningham (DRC Photojournalist) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) - Michael Rubin (AEI) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:30 PART II - 40:38 PART III - 1:02:51 Outro - 1:33:03 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 43 mins
  • 130 - EXCLUSIVE: We Acquired Blueprints for Russia’s Next-Gen Artillery System

    130 - EXCLUSIVE: We Acquired Blueprints for Russia’s Next-Gen Artillery System
    Mar 31 2025
    Through one of our contacts in Russia, we have managed to acquire a packet of Russian Ministry of Defence documents smuggled out of Moscow. The packet pertains to a new weapons system that is about to be deployed to the battlefield, one that will catapult Russia forward in its artillery capabilities. To understand what this system is capable of and how much of a game-changer it is likely to be for the Russian forces, we brought on two key experts to dissect the documents and blueprints. On the panel this week: - Mark Galeotti (RUSI) - Eric Gomez (Missile and Nuclear Weapons Expert) Released April 1st, 2025. Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/c/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    16 mins
  • 129 - Frozen Flashpoints: Greenland, Svalbard, and the Next Arctic Standoff

    129 - Frozen Flashpoints: Greenland, Svalbard, and the Next Arctic Standoff
    Mar 11 2025
    The last few months have seen major shifts in the balance of power in the far north, with the US making threats toward Greenland, Russia exerting pressure on Svalbard, and Arctic shipping routes, once seen as a counterweight to the Suez Canal, are now increasingly having their viability called into question. So as Greenland heads to the polls, the territory finds itself voting on far more than just a new legislature; instead deciding on the makeup of a future arctic flashpoint that could see NATO facing pressures from both the east and the west. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to analyse how we arrived at this position, the economic factors most people overlook when discussing the Arctic, and how likely these geopolitical tensions are to escalate into conflict. On the panel this week: - Jennifer Spence (Harvard Belfer Center) - Nicolas Jouan (RAND Europe) - Sigbjørn Halsne (Norwegian Armed Forces) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:06 PART II - 28:54 PART III - 49:15 Outro - 1:19:54 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 30 mins
  • 128 - Timor Leste's Fading Sunrise

    128 - Timor Leste's Fading Sunrise
    Jan 30 2025
    Timor-Leste stands at a crossroads, grappling with the legacies of Indonesian occupation, economic dependence on dwindling oil reserves, and the encroaching geopolitical pressures shaping its future. Once heralded as a success story of post-colonial independence, the country now faces mounting economic challenges, political stagnation, and an uncertain path toward ASEAN integration. Can Timor-Leste successfully diversify its economy before its oil wealth runs dry? Will its growing ties with China raise alarm bells in Canberra and Jakarta? And how do its historical struggles inform its current trajectory? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Michael Leach (Swinburne University) - Parker Novak (Atlantic Council) - Josh Kurlantzick (The Council on Foreign Relations) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:24 PART II - 27:03 PART III - 56:12 Outro - 1:08:38 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 18 mins