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Back in 2023, Stuart argued that inflation and rates could stay higher for longer than most expected, drawing on 50 years of history showing that once inflation tops 8%, it typically takes a decade or more to settle. That call has aged well: after cutting through 2025, the RBA has already hiked three times in 2026, and underlying inflation has climbed back to 3.6% in a second wave the Bank's own models failed to anticipate.

But revisiting the research has sharpened his thinking. Stuart walks through three forces keeping inflation elevated: a less aggressive RBA, government spending, and the AI data-centre boom competing for the same workers and materials, while weighing newer studies suggesting credible inflation targets may tame it faster than the grim 11-year median implies.

His most important point has had too little attention: rate rises may simply bite less than they did 20 years ago. An ageing population, older households holding savings rather than debt, and mortgage offset balances up 49% since 2022 all mean a growing share of spending comes from people barely touched by higher rates. The uncomfortable corollary: cuts may not revive spending either. If your strategy relies on rate cuts, stress-test it.

Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X

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This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.