Hurricane Havoc & Midwest Meltdown -September 29th 2026 2:00 a.m. Weather Briefing
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Hurricane Havoc & Midwest Meltdown -September 29th 2026 2:00 a.m. Weather Briefing
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Narrated by:
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By:
0:05-0:51: National Overview & Pressure Systems
- 0:05-0:28: High Pressure Dominates Great Lakes (30.05 in / 1017.6 mb), Low Pressure is Hurricane Polo (965 mb / 28.50 in) making Baja California landfall.
- 0:28-0:51: Polo's Remnants & Standard Pressure (29.92 in).
- 0:52-1:20: SPC Marginal Risk (New Mexico/West Texas) for isolated severe gusts/tornadoes, noting Polo's remnants phasing with approaching trough.
- 1:20-1:41: Phoenix Office Reports (29.70 in), Normal Temperatures Expected.
- 1:42-2:00: Tropical Storm Rachel (South of Acapulco) - 50 knots/58 mph, 992 mb, moving WNW.
- 2:00-2:30: Hurricane Polo (Category 2) - 105 knots/121 mph, 950 mb, SW of Honolulu, moving NNW.
- 2:30-3:00: Major Hurricane Nolo (Category 3, Hawaii Threat) - 105 knots/121 mph, 950 mb, SW of Honolulu, moving NNW.
- 3:00-3:28: Hawaii Hurricane Watch (Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument), Nolo to bring heavy showers to western islands.
- 3:29-3:54: Pacific Northwest Frontal System (Western Washington) - Rain (1-3 inches), Wind gusts (35-45 mph), Wind Advisory.
- 3:54-4:31: Desert Southwest & Four Corners (Flash Flood Risk) - Albuquerque (statewide), Phoenix (Flood Watch), Tucson (Polo's moisture influence), precipitable water 175-250% of normal, below normal temperatures.
- 4:31-4:46: Plains - Gradient-driven winds from trough/Great Lakes high.
- 4:47-5:17: Midwest/Great Lakes Fog (Chicago, Northern Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, NW Indiana) - Radiational cooling, high humidity (57°F/55°F dew point at O'Hare).
- 5:17-5:40: Midwest Pattern Shift (Wednesday-Thursday) - Polo's remnants merge with long-wave trough, near-record moisture (2 inches precipitable water), 2-3 inches localized rain possible.
- 5:40-6:11: Cold Front & Record September (St. Louis, Columbia, MO) - Highs drop to 60s, St. Louis 90°F (10-15° above normal), widespread rain (1.8 inches precipitable water / >99th percentile).
- 6:12-6:29: East Coast - Boston (37 mph gust), New York JFK (25 mph winds), Baltimore (64°F, 17 mph, 30.00 in), weak frontal boundary.
- 6:29-7:01: Alaska - Shortwave trough, snow levels drop (1800-2000ft Mananuska/Susitna), gap winds (Kodiak), Anchorage (43°F), low south of Seward brings steady precipitation to Kenai Peninsula.
- 7:02-7:27: SPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day Outlooks - Trough lifts NE, ridge builds over central US, near/above normal temps (eastern 2/3), desert SW cools.
- 7:27-8:03: Notable Observations - Warmest (Dallas 82°F/50 mph gust), Coolest (Anchorage 43°F), Highest Dew Point (New Orleans 72°F), Lowest Pressure (Phoenix 29.70 in), Highest Pressure (Chicago 30.05 in), Strongest Wind (Dallas 50 mph). No snow reported.
- 8:03-8:25: Snow Line (1800-2000ft Alaska range), No record events.
- 8:26-9:13: NWS Chicago AFD - Key Messages: Fog Tonight, Heavy Rain Midweek. Explanation of reasoning behind forecasts.
- 9:14-10:26: Polo's Remnants & Long-Wave Trough - Major pattern shift, Polo's remnants track NE, merge with long-wave trough (jet stream dip), tropical moisture + trough dynamics = massive rain, slow-moving cold front.
- 10:27-10:56: Moisture Collision in the Midwest - Frontal zone shifts, Pacific moisture (Polo) + Gulf moisture merge over Great Lakes, significantly enhancing rainfall potential.
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