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The Calm Before the Storm

Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa

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The Calm Before the Storm

Yazan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton
Seslendiren: Kevin Stillwell
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Özet

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

©2015 Foreign Affairs (P)2015 Audible, Inc. Political Science Politics & Government Social Sciences
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Clear & concise. I will definitely be looking further into Nassim's works. This offers a good starting point. These are strange & confusing times to be alive & while I am a pacifist at heart, it can make it difficult to understand the nature of growth in society from perspectives outside of this point of view. Nassim's perspectives from historical tendencies & philosophical nature offer a much welcomed way of grasping concepts that all too often feel too large (for me) to understand.

It's a port in a storm & I shall definitely be exploring the territory of his works for furthering my investigations. I believe it's better to be informed that a person can make an executive decision, regardless of where the decision takes you. This is a synopsis & therefore won't give you answers to life, the universe & everything, but offers some useful tidbits that encourages further research. At the very least, it's helping me feel less like I'm being swept along with the tide.

Another piece of the puzzle

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Taleb's signature brand of thought-provoking contrarianism, this time focused on dissecting conventional notions of what constitutes stability and instability.

Worth a listen.

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Interesting and well narrated. Highly recommended listen for anyone curious, wanting an overview of the proposed mechanisms of political and economic fragility with examples discussed

Interesting & thought provoking

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This was a blessing to listen to. It really describes how things pan out. Which can help guide for more successful outcome

Wow, Great Help

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about the markers of an economically “fragile” nation. i found it quite interesting, even though i am not completely on board with Taleb's theories, for example, i don’t necessarily think “post-traumatic growth” is the best indicator of “antifragility”, when it can be directly proportional with the competence of whoever was able to get their point across in the decision making, in that period full of crucial moments. now, i am not advocating for soviet-style centralisation (an example in the article), but in our democracies getting the overall best points across is not a default given, it comes and goes, and competence is not obvious. after this, i'm definitely interested to read more from Taleb to get more understanding of his theories. good short article.

interesting

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