Fact-check review of the Nov 3, 2026 election-night Megastream: the show's election model, its race picks, midterm history, Senate predictions, election-day failures, and guest claims. Sixteen new claims checked: 4 supported, 3 partly/misleading, 8 contradicted, 1 prediction pending. One repeat revisited, not counted.- DDHQ model weights (45% polls, 30% fundamentals, 25% markets): Supported: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/texas-governor-general-election/forecast- Show's model, Texas Senate (57%): Contradicted — the other candidate won- Show's model, Kansas Senate (70.9%): Contradicted — Democrat won, first Dem Kansas senator since 1932- Show's model, Iowa Senate (61%): Contradicted — the other candidate won (model did back winners in OH, ME, NC, MN)- Midterm losses (median ~35 House, ~5 Senate): Partly misleading — published averages since 1934: ~27 House, ~3-4 Senate: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2026-midterm-elections-are-historical-data-relevant- Senate split 53 R / 47 D: Supported- "I think we hold it" (Senate): Contradicted — Democrats took the Senate (AP); the paired House expectation was right- "Modern science recognizes six biological sexes" (aired clip): Contradicted — two gamete types only: https://labs.la.utexas.edu/buss/files/2025/09/There-Are-Only-Two-Sexes-and-There-Can-Never-Be-More-Dougan-2025.pdf- Texas governor "roll right through it": Contradicted — incumbent lost; first Dem statewide win in TX since 1994- Show's model, Georgia governor (~60%): Contradicted — Democrat won; market had her at 85%- Show's model, Alaska Senate (53%): Prediction pending — uncalled, ranked-choice tabulation to come- Viral "serve Israel" quote attributed to a Michigan candidate: Supported — the show's debunk is right; the words are not in the clip- Syria, Iran, Libya, Egypt "Christian nations until the 1960s-70s": Contradicted — majority-Muslim for over a millennium- Hamtramck, MI has an all-Muslim council: Supported — first in the U.S., took office Jan 2022: https://www.tmj4.com/news/national/this-city-in-michigan-elected-its-first-all-muslim-city-council- Maricopa / Westchester / Kansas election failures: Partly — documented (62 sites late 2018; ~31% of centers with tabulator issues 2022; Westchester ballots counted; Kansas got 100 of 1,000 ballots), overstated in places: https://www.votebeat.org/arizona/2022/11/11/23454253/arizona-voting-problems-ballot-tabulator-printer-settings/- 2020 election stolen (repeat): Unverified — open question, not counted again; Texas v. Pennsylvania dismissed on standing, merits never reached; focus on election integrity- Immigration "down three million, first time ever": Partly misleading — largest estimate ~2.9M (CIS, disputed method); Pew: first decline since the 1960s, not ever: https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/immigration-migration/immigration-trends/- Religious discussion notice: aired sermon clips and religious statements noted, not rated.Series tracker: 113 claims — 49 supported, 37 partly/misleading, 20 contradicted, 5 unresolved, 2 predictions pending. Verdicts reflect the state of the evidence as of today and remain open to revision.Independent fact-check review for reporting and commentary purposes only; not affiliated with Louder with Crowder.

- 506 races covered (435 House, 35 Senate, 36 governors): Correct: https://a1blogs.com/2026-midterm-elections/- 80% forecast for 2028 if opposition takes both chambers (repeat): Exaggerated — no dataset named; 1946, 1954, 1994 winners lost next- First to call Georgia and Pennsylvania: Exaggerated — own release says among the first: https://aijourn.com/steven-crowders-election-livestream-of-the-century-the-most-watched-independent-election-livestream-in-the-world-with-over-570000-concurrent-viewers-on-election-night/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook- Texas Senate matchup on the map: Correct — certified ballot: https://statedrecord.com/races/texas-us-senate-2026- Arizona called at 10% of the vote: Exaggerated — Fox at 73%, AP at 80%; margin 10,457 correct: https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2022/dueling-network-decision-desks-will-it-happen-again-tonight/- States run their own elections: Correct: https://constitutioncenter.org/amp/blog/the-constitution-and-the-federal-election-process- Philadelphia polling-place intimidation in 2020: Incorrect — incident was 2008: https://usccr.gov/files/press/archives/2010/PR_12-03-10_NBPP.pdf- 2020 election as most corrupt / stolen (repeat): Incorrect — no court established fraud changing the outcome- Border numbers up to 20 million in four years: Exaggerated — CBP: 10.8M+ encounters nationwide FY21-24, 8.7M southwest, plus ~2M gotaways; encounters are events, not people admitted: https://legalclarity.org/how-many-immigrants-under-biden-encounters-vs-admissions/- Statehood, court packing, ending Electoral College as party plan: Partly misleading — discussed by some figures, not adopted party position, Electoral College change needs amendment- Advice simply not to be gay: Warning buzzer — APA: orientation is enduring, little or no control, change efforts unsupported and harmful: https://www.apa.org/topics/lgbtq/sexual-orientation- Executive order saying there are two genders: Correct — EO 14168, Jan 20, 2025: https://www.aila.org/library/executive-order-90-fr-8615-1-30-25- Texas Senate result would turn Texas into Colorado: Unverified prediction — recorded as prediction pending- People moving to Texas and Florida, leaving California and New York: Correct, in direction — Census July 2025 estimates: https://www.cre42.com/demographics-domestic-migration-states.htmlTracker: 97 claims — 45 supported, 34 partly/misleading, 13 contradicted, 4 unresolved, 1 prediction pending.Independent fact-check review for reporting and commentary purposes only; not affiliated with Louder with Crowder.

- Hookworm via barefoot in soil, per CDC: Correct: https://www.CDC.gov/zoonotic-hookworm/hcp/clinical-features/index.html- Grounding from Montana cable TV executive, first mat, first study: Correct: https://www.earthing.com/pages/about-us- Kambo burns skin, frog secretion, seizures/death warning: Correct: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11833272/- Parkour invented by Paris-suburb youth, 1990s: Correct: https://londonparkour.com/blog/parkour-faq/- Worship whatever false deity: Religious discussion- China banned sponsorships, team, league broadcast: Exaggerated — CMG suspended, Migu still showed 9 of 10 matches: https://dukecountry.fm/2026/10/27/soccer-mbappe-dropped-by-chinese-brands-over-alleged-mao-meme-comments/- Foreign Ministry unanimous rejection quote: Correct: https://zalebs.com/business/mbappe-apologises-as-china-suspends-sponsorship-and-media-deals/- Ban remained after apologies: Correct: https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/real-madrid/news/real-madrid-forced-into-china-apology-as-mbappe-controversy-sparks-la-liga-tv-blackout_607893.html- Cost about 7 million euros a year: Correct, as reported annual value: http://foot-africa.com/en/news/kylian-mbappes-major-loss-after-the-controversy-in-china-1401446/- Mao killed 40 to 80 million: Correct, as commonly cited range: https://factually.co/fact-checks/history/mao-zedong-death-toll-estimates-27b828- John Cena selfie apology after Taiwan remark: Correct: https://www.nme.com/news/film/john-cena-apologises-to-china-after-calling-taiwan-a-country-2948425- 74% of Gen Z women agree men should protect women: Correct — IFS: 26% said women don't need protection: https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-one-role-gen-z-women-still-want-men-to-play- NY Post 63% / 54% / 44% beta survey: Exaggerated — Chyrpe self-selected users, not all women: https://nypost.com/2026/10/28/lifestyle/women-are-ditching-alpha-males-for-more-emotionally-available-partners/- Chyrpe built around female-led relationships, femdom dynamics: Correct- Same-sex parents not just as good as mother and father: Warning buzzer — APA: children fare as well: https://www.apa.org/about/offices/ogc/amicus/delong/brief- Hennepin County felony charges: Correct: https://hi99.com/2026/10/28/minnesota-charges-conservative-activist-okeefe-influencer-higby-after-voting-stunt/- Charged though no vote, no oath: Correct — charge rests on misrepresentation when applying- No ID at all, vouch for 8 with no ID: Exaggerated — vouching proves residence only; ID number or SSN digits still required: https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/201.054- Nursing-home staff vouch unlimited: Correct- No precedent for such a prosecution: Unverified — other unlawful-voting prosecutions exist- Voter ID universally accepted, only Democrats oppose: Exaggerated — Pew: 83% support, 71% of Democrats: https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2025/08/PP_2025.8.22_voting-policy_report.pdf- Alaska: campaign recruited Dan J. Sullivan, removed June, courts restored: Exaggerated — removal/restoration documented, recruitment alleged and denied: https://nypost.com/2026/10/29/us-news/alaska-governor-orders-probe-of-mary-peltola-senate-campaign-over-decoy-dan-sullivan-scandal/- 2020, Brazil, Arizona 2022 elections stolen/corrupted: Incorrect — Arizona courts found no evidence affecting result: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/arizona-judge-issues-final-blow-to-kari-lakes-six-month-election-contest/Tracker: 86 claims — 40 supported, 30 partly/misleading, 12 contradicted, 4 unresolved, 0 predictions pending.Independent fact-check review for reporting and commentary purposes only; not affiliated with Louder with Crowder.