Two episodes in two weeks!
This week's robot invention: a cuttlefish-shaped maintenance drone that has to navigate around a featureless alien sphere at a good fraction of light speed, localizing off pulsars alone. Stefan thinks four pulsars gets you within a couple of meters. Ilia brings up the Rayleigh limit, kilohertz flicker rates, and special and general relativity, and lands on the uncomfortable conclusion that the best positioning system for a ship on a known trajectory is a very good clock. Project Stargazer, obviously. Also: why every sci-fi ship where the stars visibly move is breaking the speed of light, and why localization stays unsolved even in the far future.
Then the main topic: the numbers behind Agility Robotics' Digit. Agility is SPACing off roughly $1.8M in 2025 revenue, with a prospectus that assumes hundreds of thousands of humanoids in warehouses where the hourly math doesn't beat a human on a bagel and a coffee. From there, a tour through the autonomous trucking SPACs (Aurora at ~1,400x revenue while burning about a billion a year, Kodiak, Plus, Embark, TuSimple) and how they actually turned out. Stefan explains why AI labs get infinite multiples until the moment they start selling something, why VCs writing $25M checks can't possibly be experts in the thing they're funding, and why a pre-product company pitching a TED talk out-raises one with customers.
Closing argument: if you're at a well-funded humanoid company and you don't open source key parts of what you build, you're kind of a dick. Most of these codebases will die with the company. Cruise gave us Foxglove. What will you leave behind?
Total rosbag t-shirts now available. Profits go to the Open Source Robotics Alliance. Drop a comment for the link.